Thanks again GP. The Wednesday Feb 16th event is now posted in Play by Play. Every bet, every hand, every round. I used it just now to answer my own questions about my semifinal round last hand... Selecti, I made the right play at our table. Doubling would not have given me the high. I still had to swing Countwood's 18 on the hand. If I double my 15 and draw an Ace, 2, or 3, (and obviously a 7,8,9,T) I'm locked out. By just hitting, I can hit as many times as I need to get to 19 or higher.
betting mistakes GPC today Ken, thanks for posting the play by play of todays tournament, i now see (I think due to hindsight) my mistakes in betting hands 14 and 15 in the semis (table 3) after being BR1 after 13 hands, i guess i was betting defensively for the low (no offense Dave) on hollywoods recent declaration that 88% of the time 2 players get the same results. I would appreciate any critiqueing of my betting strategy. It's hard to hurt my feelings and I'm always open to advise so don't hold back. joep yes you were right I should have doubled on hand 15, a brain fart i guess. thanks for any help.
Round 1, Table 1, Hand 15 Name BankAfter14 Bet15 Cards15 Prospect $1485 $350 96 Locutus $1050 $500 KJ YMe $1315 $340 4K DALLAS795 $715 $500 85 flarob $1175 $490 95 Dealer 7 showing I was BR1 at $1485 going into the last hand. The $350 was to cover a potential two max bet win by flarob. What is my best play here? I ended up hitting because I did not know what to do. I thought just hitting was bad because if I make a successful hit, everyone behind would double-down.
rookie diagnosis Matching Peterle's $500 bet on hand 14 would have been preferable to the $10 bet. The small bet gave Peterle a 44% chance of taking the lead simply by winning his hand. A $500 matching bet by rookie would have reduced Peterle's chances to be the leader going into the last hand. Would it give you an 88% chance of staying ahead? Unfortunately not. I'm preparing a post about that 88% number that I'll put in the Tournament Strategy forum in a few minutes.
Ken's Last Hand Looking at your bet you needed the ability to hit your hand again if you drew a small card.Selecti did not need to double his 17 because he will go to 1375 with his straight win bet of 410 ,which will beat your 1230.If he does not double he wins as the dealer would have busted
More analysis on Countwood/nicki/ken21/selecti Joe, Selecti did need to double. While his straight-up win beats me, it would not beat Countwood who stood with 18. Countwood goes to $1475 with a win. If Selecti hits without doubling, Countwood wins if the dealer busts or makes 17. With a successful Selecti double, he takes both of those outcomes away from Countwood. I on the other hand did not need to double. I can't pass a win by Countwood even if I double, because I only get to $1460. I MUST have a swing, and the extra money I could win by doubling doesn't help me at all. So, both me and Selecti played correctly. I didn't double, and he did. If anyone is still following along, I'll save you the trouble of translating the play by play. Here it is, in button order. One advances: Countwood...........$1205..............$270..............8K nicki406...............$945................$420..............J23Q Ken21..................$730................$500..............Q56 selecti.................$965................$410...............7J Dbl 2 Dealer has 28J Once selecti makes 19 on his double, I win only with a dealer 20. That's a 12.4% shot. All the bets are very good... Countwood's bet here is excellent. From the button, he covers BR2's max bet. He has first high, surrender first low, and his single win covers me if I get all-in. Very nice! nicki takes about the only thing available. Bet a bunch, but retain the ability to surrender and beat a push by Ken21. Definitely better than a max bet here for her. It also gives selecti a chance to make an error and give her the low back if he bets max. Again, very nice. For me, there's no point in anything other than a max bet. I know I must swing Countwood and I know I can't catch him even all-in. selecti does make a small bet sizing mistake. He should have either matched nicki's bet of $420 or bet $415 or $425. With his $410 bet, he ties with nicki for the high if they both double. FYI, you don't have to do the math to avoid this mistake at the table. When margining an opponent who trails you, you can afford to bet more or less than them, but you have to stay within half your lead of matching their bet. selecti strayed by exactly half the lead. (He led by $20, and bet $10 less than nicki.) Still, not bad. He has first low, and dilutes nicki's bet in every way other than a double down.
Wrong Well you assumed wrong! Pay more attention to what your doing!....LOL Since this is one of the only things you ever posted wrong, I think we'll let you slide. PS. Since they pre-emited the March 4th WSOB II show, your having another GSN party at your home on March 11th "SURPRISE"! All of us will be in for the LV Hilton and need a place to watch it. Thanks Joe
Unwelcome Guest You have been to my house 3 or 4 times now,all you are doing is bringing my property value down.Plus after you leave I have at least 2 bulls on my lawn hanging around looking for the cows.I guess it must be that cow dunk on the bottom of your sorry ass boots.Everyone else is welcome.
Thats okay You never invite me anyway, I'll just crash the party again, remember I now know the password...LOL Angie said she will bring some open pretzels...lol
