I had a call last night from a friend of mine that had just got back from a tournament, where he was in the lead on the last hand and was last to bet. He told me he was dealt a nineteen and with only one player left to play the only way he could lose was if that player (#2 sitting in 5th place) doubled down on a hard eighteen. Well you how what happened, player #2 doubles and catches a two. Now my friend can settle for 2nd place or double risking falling to 4th place. He elected to stand and make $1,225 for 2nd vs. $306.25 for 4th. I have been beat by a player's doing the "So called Wrong thing, but at the Right time" several times, most players have had this happen. Playing percentages helps you in the long run, but sometimes the player that guesses right on the last hand or gets lucky can still kill even the highest percentage hands. In the case above player #2 had a no brainier since 5th and 6th place both paid the same amount $65.75. They had nothing to lose and $2,384.25 to gain. I had a situation a few years back in a winner take all for $10,000. Going into the last hand I was in 2nd place, $35 out of first. I had last bet, the leader was seated to my right and bet the max. $500, I matched his bet. We were both dealt hard 12's to the dealers Queen. 1st place hit and caught a 3 for 15 and stood. I doubled and caught a nine for 21 and won the tournament. Was this skill...? HELL NO I got lucky, I did give myself the best possible chance at winning by doubling, but lets be real about it I still needed to get lucky. This passed Dec. I saw a friend of mine win the Las Vegas Hilton monthly qualifier splitting 6's against the dealers face card, he double down the first hand making a 16 and his second making a 15 or 16. The leader next to him had hit a blackjack had to double it and caught a 10 for 21. The only way he could lose was if my friend split and doubled and won all. The dealer busted and my friend won, what is bad about this is he is already one of the best players around if he starts getting lucky as well were all in trouble. What most players don't understand is that a bad play is not bad when it is your only play. If the game is over and your chips all go back to the dealer after the last hand, why would you want to keep them when you have a chance to win? Exceptions: Live money games and your chances of winning are not worth the risk, your better of to just re-buy and try again, or in the finals and your play could cost you thousands of dollars by falling from the position your currently hold. Don't let it get you down if you suffer a bad beat, it happens to all of us. The worst bad beat I ever saw or heard about was last year in the first round of the Las Vegas Hilton "Million Dollar Blackjack Tournament" finals. John S. had such a large lead that the only way he could lose on the last hand was for two players to catch a blackjack, not any two of the four "ONLY A CERTAIN TWO". Yep, they both caught Blackjacks! With only the min. $100 bet John had to watch his chances at a million dollars slip away. NOW THAT IS A BAD BEAT!
