Last night I was back at my local casino again. At 6PM, I pushed the first had and then lost the next 4 to bust out. At 7PM it took 7 hands to bust out but again I didn't win a hand. So, I got in again at 8PM and this time won the round, but want to verify I handled the last hand correctly. Players were as follows(Starting with the button, in betting order, I was BR1) Pos - BR - Bet - Dealt BR2 - $1025 - $300 - 3,4 BR1 - $1265 - $300 - 10,6 BR4 - $605 - $300 - 9,3 BR3 - $635 - $300 - 10,9 Dealer had a 4 up. BR2 doubled and got an 8 for 15. BR1(me) doubled and got a 6 to bust. BR4 doubled and got a 9. BR3 stood(Although I think he should've doubled also). My thinking on doubling went something like this: If I stand and the dealer busts I lose. If I stand and the dealer makes a hand, I win. With the 4 up, I had to lean towards the dealer busting. Hitting was the same no matter what the result. Doubling and getting a 5 or less, gives me the victory. 6 or higher and I need help. As it turned out, If I would've stood I would've lost and BR4 would've won. He would've gotten my 6 for 18 and the dealer would've gotten the 9 for 17. I think BR3 should've doubled because he couldn't beat BR4 without doubling. Dealer turned up a 4, drew a 2 and and A for 21. So, thanks to a little help from the dealer I moved on to the semi finals where I again couldn't catch a hand when I had the bigger bets out. So, my question is, Was doubling on 16 the best thing to do in this case?
60 % vs. 40% Here is your first mis-calculation with a 4 up the dealer is a favorite to make a hand.The dealer will bust only approx.40% of the time and make a hand approx. 60% of the time. By the looks of things 300 was the max bet so you had a double max bet lead on the 2 players going after you.When br 2 doubled and remained on a stiff hand you were still a favorite to win against br 2 Your choice of doubling your hand now opens the door for br 3 who is sitting with a winning hand 19 vs. the dealers up card of a 4 If you stand on your 16 even if br 3 wins his hand you will still beat him by 30 dollars even if you lose your hand. With a 4 up dealer makes a 17 ---- 13% 18------12.4% 19------12.1% 20------11.6% 21------11.1% Total------------60.2% Remember when you are thinking this you dont know that Br 4 will double and catch a 3 card 21.But you do know that br 3 has a winning hand vs. 4 and if you double you give him the chance to swing you for more than 2 Max bets if you were to break on your 16 which you most likely will do....
