half of max bet strategy?

on the last hand if im leading by more than half the max bet{1000} and betting first.... should i abandon the {one chip less than your lead rule} and do something else?

thanks for any help

dave

 

You may find some useful discussions on this in the 'back catalogue' of discussions in this forum.

Ignoring the complications of trying to second-guess what your opponent might do, the significant leads to consider are 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 of a max bet.

If you lead by > 1/3 then by betting twice your lead, minus a chip, you cover a max bet win by BR2 (meaning they must double to beat you if you win your hand), but you can still surrender to beat a push.

If you lead by > 2/3 then by betting just your lead, minus a chip, you can beat a BR2 max-bet double by also doubling.

If BR2 has less than two max bets available, then a more ad hoc calculation is required, in order to work out what you can achieve with different sized bets.

 

thanks man,, very interesting stuff... very excited about this knew knowledge{to me anyway} i have kens e book and my wong book should be here this weekend...

thanks again

d

 

what about the 1/2 max bet lead?

thanks again for your time

d

 

Wong's book is full of good stuff, but it assumes that surrender is not available, which makes betting your lead minus a chip a more rigid rule.

I was afraid you'd ask that! I suspect it may be best to bet the max, but I've been toying with betting 3/4 of the max. Don't take any of this as gospel; there are many more knowledgable people around here. But for what it's worth, here is how I understand things...

We've essentially divided all the possible leads (< 1 max bet) into three equal portions -
lead <= 1/3 : bet your lead minus a chip
lead > 2/3 : bet your lead minus a chip
1/3 < lead <= 2/3 : bet at least enough to cover a single max bet win by your opponent, and at most twice your lead minus a chip, and then consider surrendering.

With a lead of 501, betting 1000 not only covers a max bet win, it also covers a BJ. Plus, if you get a BJ, then even a double max bet win is not enough for your opponent.

On the other hand, if you bet just $750, then if you double down and both players lose their hands, you still advance. If you win your double, a max-bet double from BR2 would still not overhaul you.

This wouldn't be as significant if doubling for less were allowed, although you still might want to split you hand on occasion. Of course, if BR2 surrenders after you double then it becomes a moot point, which is why I'm not certain whether 750 is actually better than 1000. Maybe others would care to comment?


With a lead of 501, you could also bet just 500 to cover the push and still require BR2 to double if you look like winning your hand.

In general, if you bet twice your lead, minus a chip, then you know you have the option to surrender back, and you may be able to double down to beat a BR2 double. If you work out the minimum you need to be able to beat a double, then that might conceivably be a better bet, if doubling for less is not allowed.

I hope all that makes sense; I'm starting to confuse myself, now!

You're welcome.

 

Colin,

i dont mean to be a pest but originally you said if your up by 1/3 of a max bet you should bet "twice" your lead minus a chip... but in your latest reply... you said just bet your lead minus a chip... could you clarify?

thanks again

dave

 

Dave,

No. I think I've said the same thing both times. Possibly you're misinterpreting my attempt at mathematical notation -

• lead <= 1/3 : means lead is less than or equal to 1/3 of max bet
• 1/3 < lead <= 2/3 : means lead is greater than 1/3 and less than or equal to 2/3 of a max bet
• lead > 2/3 : means lead is greater than 2/3 of a max bet

So those are the three, non-overlapping ranges of leads, and it is the middle one for which betting twice your lead, minus a chip looks like a good idea.

Betting that amount does mean you need to be prepared to evaluate your own and your opponent's hands (versus the dealer) and decide whether or not to surrender. I'm not entirely confident about making that decision accurately, and making too many mistakes in that regard might be more costly than just betting lead-minus-a-chip, which is more of a KISS approach.

 

Got it!

i promise this is my last question for you regarding this,

most these guys bet the max on the last hand,,, will that hurt this strategy if i pretty much know that this person will bet a grand? and if i can predict that how might i get an edge.... dont get me wrong,,,there are a lot of good players over there...but a lot of hackers like me too..

thanks
dave

 

P.S.

what if im betting first on the last hand with only between $5 and $100 lead and the minimum bet is $100?

of course this was a p.s. so it doesnt qualify as an additional question.

d

 

p.s.s.

the middle betting strategy doesnt really work out except for like the lowerpart of the middle to the middle of the middle {which is $500} from a $500 lead up to $665 {which then begins the last 1/3 of the max bet allowed]

doubling $505 up to $665 puts me over the $1000 betting limit. so i really have no plan to follow if im betting first and have a $505 up to $665 lead with a $1000 max bet.

any thoughts on that? when you have an extra minute

thanks,
dave

 

Indeed, this issue has been discussed more than once in this very forum. A simian perpsepctive might be useful - https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/posts/36858 It's only really an issue when your preferred bet size is not enough to cover the both-players-double scenario, or worse still, not enough to cover a BR2 max-bet win. Otherwise, you're betting enough to cover a BR2 bet of 1000 in any case, and there's no real need to match it exactly.

Bet 100 if you think your opponent is smart enough to take the low if you offer it, otherwise bet 1000.

(And, assuming I'm right that you are playing at a skin of blackjack21.com, then your lead could be as little as $1, or even $0.50.)

You can either bet 1000, or work out an amount that would be sufficient to cover a BR2 max-bet double with your own double (E.g., 750 when the lead is 501). Plus, if you have less than 2000, you'd like to be able to split a pair, not be all-in as a result, and still have BR2 covered if they double their BR. I've been assuming that both players have at least two max bets available to them in much of this discussion, and that will not always be the case.

I overlooked the fact that 2/5 of a max bet is also a significant lead. It doesn't necessarily change what you should be betting, but it is the point at which you can double to beat a BR2 double. E.g., you lead by 401 and bet 800. BR2 bets 1000. You double to win 1600 and BR2 doubles to win 2000, and you win the table by $1.

There are other potential complications, like factoring in 3:2 blackjack payments. Ken's motto is "There's always a better bet". It gets worse with multiple players involved, but even in a two-horse race the twenty seconds available to make a decision rarely seems like long enough!

Don't run away with the idea that I've got all this sorted out. I did once try and produce a definitive table of ranges of lead and appropriate bets, but I soon gave up! A further complication comes from the large size of the minimum bet, 100. I conveniently ignored that in my previous comments. The following thread, which relates to another site with a 100 minimum, but with no surrender option, shows what the issue is - https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/posts/33195

If I've made any mistakes, I hope the real experts will point them out, as well as offering any further thoughts. I've actually found it quite a useful exercise to try and present, in a vaguely comprehensible way, some of this stuff that I haven't really got as firm as grasp on as I would like.

 

thanks man,,, the following quote by you is what i really needed to hear right now.... thanks again.

"You can either bet 1000, or work out an amount that would be sufficient to cover a BR2 max-bet double with your own double (E.g., 750 when the lead is 501). Plus, if you have less than 2000, you'd like to be able to split a pair, not be all-in as a result, and still have BR2 covered if they double their BR.) I've been assuming that both players have at least two max bets available to them in much of this discussion, and that will not always be the case.

 

im trying hard not to get overwhelmed with info right now... but i think you just taught me a valuable lesson...in my 1000 bet max games,,,,if i have a lead of say 400 to 2000 and am betting first ,a really solid bet would be to take my lead, subtract it from 2000, divide by 2, and add one. correct? this is exciting stuff . hope im right... so if you will and if im correct in asuming this.... without overwhelming me with all the other options... could you suggest one clever counter to this bet that an intelligent oponent would make after my initial bet? would the try and take the low?

dave

oh yeah, this was a p.s.s.s

 

p.s.s.s.s

and just to add, i know this bet option is just an option,, and it means i still have to double along with the other person and also win the hand if they do also,,, and it doesnt protect me from the doubling a blackjack.... but its a good start , it gets me in there without looking like an idiot and at least gives me a chance, correct?

d

 

by the way i only have 15 seconds to do the math, not 30.
and im not really a math guy.... but its great mental exercise...and it will probably help me to challenge myself.

d

 

make that 20 seconds not 15,,, it just seems like 15

 

my math is wrong. sorry to waste so much . went to bed last night and glanced at my printed version of ken's e book and tested my sequence on some of his examples and quickly saw that i was wrong. if i have $2745 and they have $2532 there is no 20 second way for me to calculate a first bet to protect a double down by them....or if i luck out and find a way,,,if the shoes on the other foot and i want to take the low after they make the first bet.

im just looking for a quick way to do the math...ive got 20 seconds to take the high or low, can anyone suggest a quick way to do what i was talking about above? thanks

dave

 

thanks a million Ken,, well in this case a thousand...

still a lot of math to do in 20 secs. you said i was on the right track with these numbers. and i know what to do if he has less than two max bets,,, and if i have less than say a 401 lead i would just subtract one from my lead and bet that as one option... how does that sound for starters?

dave