Tricked you again didn't I? What I would like is a teaser related to correct betting strategy. We've had a lot recently that are play related and involve a level of mathematical commitment. I think the bet related teasers are more useful because they can have a much bigger impact on outcome, the play related ones are often fractions of a percentage difference. Here's hoping! Thanks in advance. Reachy
Pleeeeeaaaaase can somebody give us a teaser??? Come on guys, us newbies need to hone our TBJ problem solving skills. Or maybe you're scared? That's it, you ARE scared!!! Cheers Reachy
I can't speak for others but ever since you changed your avatar I find myself cringing! Hope that's not a self portrait :laugh:
And that's my best side!!!! Yes that's me I'm afraid You wait until I've figured out how to animate it!! That's my "East End" look which I adopted when I lived in that part of London. One tried to blend in with the local hard men so as not to be singled out as a middle class immigrant and thus ripe for a good kicking! I occasionally revert back to it to iritate my wife and scare children and old people. Next step is total baldness! Cheers Reachy
A Newbe Teaser Ok you have asked enough times for a Hand of the Week so here it is Global-Player Duel 2 players winner takes all min bet 10 max 500 surrender available Br1 betting first has 885 bets 310 holds back 575 Br 2 betting last has 625 splits his bank and bets 310 holds back 315 Hands Br 1 is dealt a 12 Br 2 is dealt a 11 Dealer Up card is a 8 What should Br 1 do with their hand In a side note Reachy we all never like to get dealt the dreaded 16 which you hold in your hand . But that pictures makes me think that you are in dire need of a bottle of Maalox or something real bad is about to happen to you Joep
Thank you v much Joep I knew you'd come through What BR1 does will obviously affect BR2s action so I like the added complexity of this teaser. First off I think BR1 has made a betting error - the bet should have been 370 to cover an all-in win by BR2 which cannot be covered so it is now more compicated. BR1 now has to consider double for less as an option which is risky. BR2s best strategy is to double if BR1 stands or doesn't bust. If BR1 busts BR2 still has to win to beat them (unless BR1 DD for $110 or more in which case BR2 can surrender to win) and hitting rather than DD will be better because there is no benefit to DD and you can hit more than once of course. After lengthy calculations I believe the best strategy is to double for $55-$105. This approach allows you to keep the low and cover BR2s double down win. If BR1 were to stand BR2 would win 62.43% of the time if he DD but less than 38% if he were to hit until he makes a hand. If BR1 DFL he will win 76.92% of the time, if he surrenders he will win 66.47%. I haven't calculated the probabilty if BR1 decides to hit instead of DFL because I know it wouldn't be as great as DFL because quite a few ways to win have been removed. For example in a Win Win situation BR2 would emerge victorious if BR1 hits and BR2 DD as he should. Hope I haven't made a monsterous cock-up of this! Cheers Reachy
Reachy, I'm glad U over analyzed this - I on the other hand will NOT. OK, here's my take on this problem - first it sound like something I would have done myself, assumming I was BR1 In this case if I were BR1 I would just hit. I wouldn't double down just hit. My rational is this. Firstly if I DD and bust I've given BR2 the game - they just surrender and Katie bar the door. If I hit and bust as BR1 I've still got got the low over BR2 so BR2 can't just surrender and win. Since I can't control BR2's actions I'll go with this. Surrender for BR1 does what? gives you 720? What's the different between 565 and 720? BR2 still has to win to have a chance. So Joep, what's YOUR answer? What should BR1 do?
Please don't animate it! I have denture people coming in all the time like that and it drives me bonkers! Go back to the guard figure - PLEASE!:joker:
Use All Tools Here is what BR 1 should do Br1 should DD for exactly 100 no more no less Now I know you will think that 100 is more than he needs to cover the high but what that allows for is Br 2 to make a slight math mistake under time pressure and believe he can surrender if you bust your hand. I have seen many players make a mistake over 1 or 2 chips and lock themselves out. If you were to take the minimum DD to just beat him on the high. It would be easy for him to see that he could not recover the low with surrender. With this move you have the high covered with a win win you have the low covered with a lose lose and you have the surrender covered also. They might not realize that the reverse surrender trap is not there for them but take it thinking that they have it when it's that close and a small 1 or 2 chip mistake will win it for you right there. You need to use every weapon available to you in a tournament even if its the clock Remember there is a lot more skill in tournaments that players realize. This is why I have always been against providing players with other players chip counts. Always give your self more way to win and less ways to lose ,that in itself is a valuable skill . I hope you all enjoyed the Hand of the Week Joep
Once again those in the know as Joe. So that would be an example of a surrender trap! I hadn't thought of that slick tactic. I like it - thanks for the teaser and the lesson. At least THIS lesson didn't cost me!
A type of bluffing? So you are hoping to induce a playing error from BR2 by betting larger than you need but just enough to render a surrender from BR2 ineffective? If so I like it! Proves that there is much more to tournament BJ than just %ages! Would you agree that BR1s initial bet wasn't ideal and it should have been either 370 to cover an all-in win or 490 to cover max bet BJ. I think (and I may be wrong) that 490 has no more negative consequences to BR1 than betting 370 so they may as well bet that amount to give more chances of winning. Cheers Reachy
Bluff? It's funny reading your post Reachy - about "Bluffing" because it dawned on me that with the UBT commercial that will be showing - all the poker players. It talked about a "new strategy". Obviously our own Joep is already on the cutting edge - heck he and others probably DEFINED the cutting edge. As to your original question of BR1's bet being "wrong" if the whole intention was to set a trap for another player, then obviously BR1 HAD this planned. The thinking behind playing a certain bet, hoping to influence another players bet and make the wrong decision is clever, diabolical, calculating......I LIKE THAT Once again it proves that there is more to this game than percentages and just shows ME how much I have to learn. Thank Joep!
More ways to win Reachy yes the 370-490 bet does cover an all-in DD move or BJ. But these bets make your surrender trap ineffective.With Br 1 original bet he can alway DD to regain the high if Br 2 does not bite on the trap and still keep Br 2 from surrendering with a DD for less.Which brings back the possible chip counting error that could be made with the clock ticking on him. Joep
Risky So you're saying that the initial bet was a set-up for a cunning reverse surrender trap? That is some serious forward thinking and a plan so devious you could put a tail on it and call it a fox! So I can understand the set-up, what you did was place a bet that will give you a single bet win regardless of BR2's initial bet but not cover and all-in DD from BR2 and that could allow you to double for less and possibly sucker BR2 into surrendering his hand which would lock him out but if he didn't you've got all bases covered? Can I ask how the initial bet of 310 was arrived at? Was it selected from a range of numbers all of which would have been successful? The 310 bet appears to have not been "calculated" which rings alarm bells to me because it probably means it is calculated, it's just that I don't understand the process!!! I'm always scared when I can't figure out why someone has bet a certain amount because I assume that they are using a strategy that I don't know. My guess at how you arrived at the 310 was that you figure out what BR2s biggest single bet and DD win would be, pick a figure about in the middle of that. Your bet will then look a bit "uncalculated" but enough to beat a single bet win from BR2 but requiring a DD to beat a BR2 DD. This then leads BR2 to believe that he is still in with a chance if he DD. The cards are dealt, you DFL, BR2 miscounts and surrenders thinking he can win if you bust. He can't, game over! In the example you gave a BR2 single max bet win is 1125 and a DD win is 1250. 1250 - 1125 = 125. Add 70 to 1125 (approx. 1/2 of 125) = 1195. The bet required to get to 1195 by BR1 is 310! Am I even in the ball park? Cheers Reachy
Good Job Reachy Yes you have hit the nail on the head. This was a hand I played at a 1 on 1 Duel at Global-Player . I made that bet with most of the for-mentioned conclusions. Good catch on what I was trying to accomplish.The DD for less to set up the reverse surrender trap just appeared to me while I was trying to figure out what to DD for less for and to make sure I didn't over double.So all of the facts were not present to me when I first made the bet.But they were there when I looked my choices over after the hands were dealt.It was the last hand so on Global you have addition time .Would I have been able to see all of that in 10 seconds in a land based casino, not a chance but I knew the DD for less was the right play that was already pre determined before the initial bet was made to recover the high. Joep
