It's me! Sorry to bring you here under false pretences but I was hoping that UBT Aruba would have thrown up some challenging Tourney Teasers that the usual suspects would like to post here as HOTW. Come on Guys, you must have seen/played something that would give us something to get our teeth into. Cheers Reachy
Cheers Mate, There were SO MANY good hands to post and comment on from ARuBa. I'm just so tired from the plane then Niagria Falls. Besides except for you and me no one else seems to care so for now I'm signing off. Ask EastTXpro about a hand he played in in the semi-'s. Crafty and foxy! I learned a lot from the one hand I'm sure he would be willing to share. Also Joep was keeping records down there. There is plenty to talk about. I for one would love to know about the hands at the final table because while I was able to see from a distance we weren't able to see the cards. Ken any thoughts?
when in doubt put it out hello guys i had a nice trip played with the best and beat some of the best as well as beaten.i found it hard to come up with a one type of play fits all,for the traps there are in this type of game.i recommed an aggresive type play not the sit back small chip each hand.the killer hands are killers and if you are not a good chip counter the format helped because of the countdowns.i believe that you must always try to be no lower than the third high at all times.i also belive that you must be ready to go all in when threatened with elimination.saving chips can really hurt you.my theory on the secret bet is quite simple never ever bet half of your bankroll it is too easy for the other players to figure out what you have done and you will lose.the mistakes that i made i will keep to my self and hope that i dont make them again.all in all i think it went pretty good except i expected more people and bigger prizes,but remember this is new and anyone who has ever started a new business knows what can go wrong will go wrong.the people were pleasnt the company was great and it didnt cost me.regards to all.eastexaspro
OK, Here's a situation: In button order, on elimination hand 16: Carly: $86,000 Secret Bets Aaron Tribble: $107,000 Secret Bets Greg Pryce: $110,000 Secret Bets Ken Smith: $93,000 ??? Eric Androus: $152,000 Anthony Curtis: $130,500 So, I'm betting fourth, and all three players ahead of me secret bet. I'm LB2, only $7000 of Carly. What should I bet here, and should I use my secret bet?
A few options I like $13K or $22K but which to choose? $13K allows you to surrender back to the absolute low vs Carly and $22K covers max bet win and option to double as well as putting pressure on Aaron and Greg. $13K doesn't guarantee you the high and you would have to double, for less if you wanted, to bother the others. $22K doesn't guarantee you the low and you can't surrender back. I've got 10 seconds.... I'll go for the $22K. There I've said it. And I'd save my secret bet. Cheers Reachy
Sorry, I forgot to state an important fact. This is the final table, where you start with $100K and the betting limits are $1000 to $100,000 in increments of $1000.
This is definitely a situation where knowing the players are very important. I am thinking that BR3 and BR4 would bet on the smaller side in this situation (taking the low). BR6 would tend to bet big in this situation. I do see the occassional bluff. But, general, LB1 is going to go all-in here. So, given that I would bet something like $92,000 so that if Carly does goes all-in and both loses, then you move up one spot in prize money. Of course, don't use the secret bet.
Go large! In this situation, where you are low man, I would say you have maximise your options so I would try and cover all the other players for a push/win. I would bet $61K which covers all existing BRs and would beat a minimum bet win from BR1. If you win your hand you have an 81% chance of advancing. If you lose you may still have the low but of course we can't tell that for sure! And I still wouldn't use my secret bet. Cheers Reachy
I'd bet 1000.00 - Just because ......... :laugh: That plus I know something that the others don't know. Hindsight is 20/20 isn't it?
Now I'm not so sure! Reflecting on my last post and without having CTS in front of me I actually think that taking the low against BR5 in certain circumstances is the best option. Like I said I don't have table 4 from Wong here now but I think I can remember it. Assuming that BR5 has the high and you have the low You win when: You lose and BR5 loses = 31% You lose and BR5 pushes = 5% You push and BR5 loses = 5% You both push = 1% You win and BR5 loses = 12% You win and BR5 pushes = 2% That's a grand total of 56%. To estimate the chances of winning when you bet to cover all push/lose from all your opponents I took my chance of winning (44%) and multiplied it by the chances of at least 1 of my opponents pushing or losing (81%) which comes out at 36%. If I don't have the low then those are my best chances. If I have the high/low on BR5 then add 31% (48% x 65% - chance of me losing x the chance of beating BR5 if I lose) to the 36% and I've got 67% chance of winning. If I've also go the low on BR3 then add some more!! So here's the refined answer. If Carly has gone big bet $80K to cover a max bet win from her and hopefully get the high/low and to challenge all your opponents. If Carly has gone small you are better off guaranteeing the low against her so bet $6K. I'd hope that she had gone max though! Cheers Reachy Ps. Is this drivel?
How the hand played out My decision process was this: I need to win $80K to stay ahead of Carly, but I suspect that at least one of the three secret bets ahead of me is a small or medium bet. I chose to bet $40K. If I get a decent double-down, I'll have a guaranteed high over Carly. I believe that winning $40K will give me a high over one of the two guys ahead of me. If one of the three players in front of me busts, or appears likely to lose the hand, I may be able to read their reaction and surrender if they appear to have lost a large bet. I secret bet, because I can't be sure where I'm at, and perhaps Eric or Anthony will give me another way to win if they aren't able to exactly cover my bet. Eric bet $15,000, and Anthony bet $8000. So, no highs or lows there. The cards are dealt, and the dealer has a 4 up (I think). Carly: Hard 18, stands. Aaron: Hard 14, (can't recall for sure, but I think he hit to 18.) Greg: Blackjack, and the way he celebrates, I'm sure he has a big bet out. Me: Hard 19 I don't remember Eric and Anthony's cards at the moment, but they aren't all that important for my situation. The dealer busts, and now I wonder if I'm dead. They pay me my $40K. They reveal Greg's blackjack bet, and he's written down "$110K. Bang!" Boy, did he have the Bang part right. The bet plays to $100K and he collects $150K. Next up, and what I think is my best chance to see a small bet, Aaron's bet is revealed: $80,000! (Nice bet here by the way, covering my double-up as well as Carly's.) Now it's certain to be either me or Carly eliminated. I ask her: "Am I gone?" She says "No, no, you're OK. It's me." However, she hadn't actually done the math, because her bet was revealed as $50K and I was indeed gone. I won $40K, taking my bankroll to $133K, and I went home on hand 16.
Wow, That is amazing because standing in the peanut gallery things certainly looked different. We saw Greg's reaction and heard it as well. Didn't know it was BJ be we assumed it was a good hand. By the way the table acted I thought the dealer had drawn to 20 or 21! When the dealer busted you guys acted like someone had taken away a lollipop. Looking at Carley her expression was oh crap I'm going home. When we saw you, Ken, get up from the table jaws were dropping. I just assumed from what I saw things happened much differently. Man o man - now you know why I don't play poker
You see...I taught this Carley chick one thing....When in Doubt...What???? Put it out!!! Lol you all know...she never contacted me with an offer of 10% tip for great advice...oh well I chatted a guy to victory the other night in the thousand dollar guarentee...he was so happy that he decided to give me 10% transfer of his win...still waiting fot that to hit my account...LOL Thats it...its no or wrong advice from here on out...I mean we do have until sometime 2007 yet right?
Here is the exact hands and bets Betting First Carly with 86 K Secret Bet for 50 K Hand 10-8 Betting second Aaron with 107 K Secret Bet for 80 K Hand 8-6 Betting third Greg with 110 K Secret Bet 110 K was reduced to 100 K Hand A-J Betting 4th Ken with 93 K Secret Bet 40 K Hand 10-9 Betting 5th Eric with 152 K Bet 30 K in the open Betting 6th Anthony with 130.5 K Bet 8 K in the open Dealers Up card 3 Carly Stands Aaron Stands Greg Stands Ken Secret Action Stands Eric Stands Anthony Stands Dealer 3 up 8 in the hole for 11 next hit card was an Ace and then a 10 to bust Totals after the hand Carly 136 K Aaron 187 K Greg 260 K Ken 133 K Eric 182 K Anthony 138.5 K
