Have fun, punch Barney

OK what a t-ball to offer take a swing. While playing In Laughlin Pioneer tournament on June 2 I had the pleasure of making what everyone saw as a ploporitus move on the final hand. First let me explain the rules.

1/6 advance
500 starting BR
10 min
300 max
25 hands
counts at 21 and 24

Players in order of betting
Paul B
MRospi
Fred H
Joep
Don

I was the player with least experience as this game marked my 1 year anniversary of elimination format.

Player in seat one dropped out which left me with button on final hand. I had worked hard with counter bets using swings to get a lead on hand 24. I cant remember the exact chip totals but knew I lead Fred H by a small amount. As Bobby Stone counted the chips I felt I was in trouble. I actually felt Fred H was in best position even tho I had a lead. Also, as Bob counted I could see Joep was the only player far enough behind to not grab me if I bet minimum. BJ paid 2:1 so I knew Mrospi and Don could pass me with a double or a BJ. If it were 2 advance I would have taken the low but I was too scared of the cannons pointed at me. I actually saw myself as underdog. I went for a max 300 bet that in my mind covered a single bet win by Fred H and doubles/BJs by Mrospi and or Don. The spectators grilled me like I was a munchable at the greeting party. Even the dealer called me a dummy LOL. I wish I could say I learned a valuable lesson but I cant accept it as so. I still see the play as a marginal plop.

I read up in Wongs Tourney book and he clearly says, the reasoning is obvious via chances to win a hand in BJ, if you are head to head bet min or opponent deficit minus a chip. This leads to my question that is confusing me.

At what point do you ignore the other players even with the lead of a max bet? Do you ignore the potential for a BJ or double down that will give them the lead?

BTW, in my first game at Pioneer in June 06 I had a very similar situation. I took the low and it didnt work out. The crowed grilled me then too! So hard to please LOLOLOL Also, Fred Heilman won the table and went to Final table as well.

 

Barney

as one of the observers who 'enjoyed the snack' I think what you missed, that everyone watching saw, was that with a small bet ($30) - you would have the high on everyone except Fred, and would still keep the low on Fred - but would have given him the high - but - that made it essentially a one-on-one game between you and Fred - so with that bet - you would have had the best chance of winning - by going with a max bet - you gave up the low to Fred, and set up better chances for the other players to swing you - you reduced your odds of finishing first by an appreciable amount - when us 'munchers' saw you reach for the black chips - it was a universal 'what is he doing' chant - and when I can spot it - you know its bad

you didn't totally blow it - you had a reasonable chance to advance - but gave up too much of the advantage the lead gave you - when you shouldn't have - should have played it as a heads up game with Fred - and bet your lead minus a betting unit

but don't feel that bad - after all - at the River Palms - on a final hand - I had miscounted chips and happily surrendered my hand to lock up third place at a two advance table

that dang black chip came out of nowhere

yours wasn't that bad

 

You ain't the only one

I'm not about to take a swipe at you, Barney. I tried a Sit-n-Go at the Palms, because I'd never done that before. Got to the first elim hand, I was safe (but didn't know it - see below), and doubled the bet. Went from safe to walking out of the room with my head hanging.

In retrospect, it was a bad time to stick my toe in the live BJT pool. I was running on about 4 hours of sleep over the previous two days, and nursing a rollicking case of Budweiser disease, too. Instead of "LeftNut" I could have been "Flatliner" in that game. Hey, we were in Vegas, bay-bee!

 

What made me do it

was the calculation of the br3 and br4 potential to double or BJ at 2:1 and pass me. My single bet eliminated that if we all won. Single max bet cleared all but Fred doubling. My "error" came in recognizing the BRs I was max bet leading! In other words I over calculated and should have used KISS, keep it simple stupid!

Still I have this monkey on my back not to offend a monkey:joker:

If Im a max bet leader on two players that will be betting max and likely doubling or getting a 2:1 BJ that will pass me on success is it best to ignore them? Is a max bet lead a time to only focus on my hard close competition even tho the low BRs still have desperation ability to win?

BTW leftnut thanks for not hitting me then kicking me after the KO LOL

 

If you have a max+ lead (but not as high as a 1 1/2 max+ bet lead) and on the button and only 1 advancing and more than 1 contender then a max bet is your best bet. You have too many competitors to bet anything but the max. You still keep the low and have all the high possibilities working for you. And betting less would give those "low BRs" a better shot at you. By the way, if you like Wong, this follows his advice to the letter.

PS: By the title of this thread I thought you were offering to use yourself as a punching bag to raise money for a tournament buy-in. :laugh: :laugh:

 

chip counts

Barney - I don't remember the exact chip counts - but my memory is that with a $30 bet - you would have locked out one player completely - locked out another's BJ even if you lost and his forced double with a win - and also locked out a third player's bj - but would have been vulnerable to a forced double (which you could have covered with a double of your own) - leaving you essentially in a one-on-one with Fred - and you having the low, beating him if he pushed or lost - only Fred could have beaten you with a straight win even if all the others won a max bet - and you had lost - if I remember right -
what you bet opened you up to a swing by everyone - and you gave Fred the low - putting him into basically the same position you gave up - and thereby reversing the probabilities of advancing - you gave him the edge you could have had -

I think you either miscounted/calculated - what your advantage actually was -

The max bet wasn't bad - you had a 44% chance of locking out everyone - except the forced double by Fred - but your odds would have been appreciably better with keeping the low on Fred

 

Im sure RK

Mrospi had 515 and Don had more maybe 560 with Joep below 500. So the targets with double downs or BJ at 2:1 were 1120 and 1030. Maybe Mrospi will chime in with his total, Im sure he was BR4. My single max win would have covered both of those and a single bet win by Fred. John Ressman was saying my bet of 30 would cover a single bet win of one of the closer BRs is what I got. If a 30 would cover everyone except Fred their totals were just above 400....

Toolman, re punching bag to raise money for a tourney, as Joe says I only enter 1$ games. At %$ a punch Im looking good for a few months:laugh:

 

If

I bet 30 any player with 300 in chips had potential to go to 900, thats a 300 bet paid 2:1 for BJ is 900. I think even Joe had over 300 and he was well into BRL...

 

Barney,

This is a tough question to answer because there doesn't seem be a clear cut answer of competitor's bankrolls nor your exact lead. I'm not sure if you are a max bet or max+ leader. Anyway, it seems from the info available that everyone there was in error for chastising your decision. Looks to me that Monkeysystem is right in-that a max or min bet results in similar win probabilities so a max bet may have been alright and you should take comfort in that. Maybe it was not the best bet but it certainly was not that bad.

One other point I'd like to make. In your opening post you asked for clarification on the following:

I read up in Wongs Tourney book and he clearly says, the reasoning is obvious via chances to win a hand in BJ, if you are head to head bet min or opponent deficit minus a chip. This leads to my question that is confusing me.​

Wong's statement applies when it it is truly one on one with everyone else either busted out or so far behind that they have 0% possibility of catching you if you make a minimum bet. In the scenario you outlined, that was not the case so this rule does not apply.

 

chip totals

Barney -

my memory is that your total was $895 with Fred at $860 - meaning you could bet $30 and still beat him if he lost or pushed - - a loss would give you $865 - a win would give you $925 - to beat your loss with a single straight bet win - the other players would have had to have a minium of $565 - to beat your win a minimum of $630 - to beat your win with a max bet bj - they would have needed $480 - with a forced double - they would have needed $465 -

so maybe you were more vulnerable than I thought - still - what are the probabilities of a forced double or bj beating you versus the odds of at least one of the 4 other players swinging you - and even with your bet - you were vulnerable to a forced double by Fred -

someone with a good spreadsheet work out the probs here please

 

Right...

I was thinking I had 885 so either way its in line. The problem of using Wong player vs player; I was still vulnerable to double and or BJs at 2:1. Joe was the only one out, separate a BJ, of it if I went low because he had about 360. He doubled with a green chip and some reds on top beside his 300 bet. My bet opened a very small door for him. Joe asked me to bet all. My calculation for high was 280 which was negligible in respect so I did go 300. This made Joe happy because it was his only slight possibility. He doubled and busted, Don had a lot more than Joe he doubled and busted. Mrospi didnt double as 2nd to act. He must have been dealt pretty good cards.

The thing that makes this even more complicated as a button bet is the cards are face down until you want to double or have BJ. First to act you see nothing. Then stiffs are doubled face up which exposes busting. Actually I think a mistake I made was acting sad when I was dealt a 7 6 vs dealer 6. I should have acted as tho it were a 20. I may have even exposed my cards to Mrospi. In a face down game you need to use some poker play. Its actually a game that bluffing is a usable tactic.

Oh well on to next chance, Viejas more than likely, if not Soboba....:juggle:

 

oops

in my earlier post I calculated bjs at 3-2 instead of 2-1 -

but very little difference in possible outcomes

bjs should pay 3-2:flame:

Barney - your situation was almost identical to what I had at my first Pioneer tourney qualifier - I was lead, by small amount - if I went low - one player could catch me with a forced double or max bj, two would have been closed out - one player close enough to take a straight high - almost identical situations - I went high - as you did - and lost to BR4 getting a bj while I lost - would have won the table if I had taken the low -

 

Rk

Its one of those Damned if you do Damned if you dont- genius if it works toad if it dont. Its a tuff crowd out there! Whats a BJTer to do!?:laugh: Bring tar, feathers, and solvent!