I think one of the hardest plays is hitting a stiff hand against a dealers weak up card when you need to win. Here is my situation that I think I blew it on looking back as a Monday morning QB. 21 hands out of CSM box 1000 start BR 1000 max 25 min 3/6 advance no rebuys left 2:1 BJ Apparent 2 competitors had an idea how to play BJT besides, gulp, me. The table started out with most betting 100-250 and thru first 5 hands most had fallen slightly below starting BR. One player took a beating and was left with 4 green chips but wanted to play to end so went min. After the 5th hand most of the others slowed betting down but still 100 bets made from time to time. Lucky me betting a max of 50 per hand crashed down to 550 by hand 15. Made a small, 100, catch up bet as 4 players still near 900-1000. Lost. Did this a bit, 1/4-13 BR bets, to hand 19 and had 425 left. The top 3 were still bunched 800-1000. I thought it was obvious splitting my BR with one hand to go would leave me with no chip power besides a BJ on last hand. Went all in. This meant I had to win my hand. I grabbed a 2-5 to a dealer 3-up. I hit to a 13. I told myself I was in a bad position with over a 50% chance of NOT winning the hand. I stood! Well lets hear it, would you have stood or hit for the win?
work it I Think I Would Have Hit It- A Stiff 13 Is Not All That Bad And I Believe We All Know About Those 2s And 3s For The Dealer A Dangerous Cards Just My Opinion So You Did Not Tell Us How This Worked Out:d :d EITHER WAY YOU ARE GOING FOR THE WIN RICK LOVES THIS PLAY I HAVE SEEN HIM IN THIS SITUATIONS ON A NUMBER OF TIMES WHEN HE NEEDS THAT 8 FOR A WIN SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO HEAR WHAT HE WOULD DO
As you know Barn, the two reasons for hitting in that situation are: 1. A push will help you. 2. Playing for a swing. Since we don't know the other players' hands/or bets, the push would not help much, so you probably made the correct play.
My Thoughts I would have stood under the circumstances you described Barney. You don't want to bust yourself out. I fully understand by standing you were an underdog but you would have been an underdog by hitting also. I think you made the right play by standing though your outcome might not show it. Of course you might tell us the next card out of the CSM was an 8.
Stand? With no information on other players' bets or bankrolls then STAND is the best chance to win the hand. If you need a swing then HIT is the necessary play. Below I give the chances for win, push, lose, advantage (win - lose) for hitting to various hard totals and standing when starting with a 13 vs dealer 3. Dealer hits soft 17. Assume infinite deck. Action...........Win.............Push............Lose.............Advan Stand......... .3767 ......... .0000 ......... .6233 ......... -.2466 H14............ .3300 ......... .0479 ......... .6220 ......... -.2920 H15............ .3242 ......... .0516 ......... .6241 ......... -.2999 H16............ .3156 ......... .0556 ......... .6288 ......... -.3133 H17............ .3036 ......... .0599 ......... .6365 ......... -.3328 ......................BlueLight
Swing It sounds like you needed a swing. If your players overbet their lead you needed a half swing and your hard standing number was 17. If your players didn't overbet their lead you needed a full swing and your hard standing number was 18. If a player didn't cover you then a push was as bad as a loss and your hard standing number was 12. If you had position and one of them overbet their lead you'd take the low and your hand is probably irrelevant.
Thanks for the responses. If I had won my all in bet on hand 20 it would have just about tied me for 3rd place as they bet under $100. I was actually the button on my last hand played which means I would have bet last on last hand. My thinking was to win my hand with all in was the prudent move then use my button position to place in top 3 last hand.
next SO YOU STILL HAVE NOT TOLD US HOW THIS HAND WORKED OUT:juggle: :1st: :2nd: :3rd: I ASSUME YOU LOST HAND 20 SINCE YOU SAID-If I had won my all in bet on hand 20
You're In Good Company It happens to all of us. I think the player with situational awareness has a huge advantage over the guessers and big bettors in these three winner games. The analyses can be complex but you can often come up with a bet that gives you multiple middle positions. If one big bettor pulls away you can let them go and still have a two winner scenario. Casual players bust themselves out in these games just as readily as if it were one or two winner. But there's no guarantee in tournament blackjack. That's why you gotta love this game!
