Hit or Stand

I recently had this scenario in BJ tournament and want to know if any of you experienced players can tell me the correct play. Maybe even the percentages.

After all bets are made player "C" has the low locked up. So it is between Players "A" and "B". I am player A. I was BR3 (3 advance) before the hand. I matched Player B's bet. As it turns out I have to win the hand to advance. If player B wins too. If we both happen to push I win also.

Player B has 18 and stands. I have a hard 15 vs the Dealers Jack. Do I hit or stand and hope the dealer busts?

 

Hit to hard 18

From your description of the situation it seems to be as follows:

Plyr....BkRll.....Bet.......cards..........Action

B:......100.....100.......10+8...........stands
A:......110.....100.......10+5..........Action?
C:.......50.......10........any...........any

Dealer........................10

You are player A and should hit to hard 18 (or bust trying) for a .2699 chance to advance when only one of the 3 players advances. For standing totals the chances are:

H15............. .2298
H16............. .2681
H17............. .2697
H18............. .2699
H19............. .2454


................................BlueLight

 

Thanks

Thank you Bluelight,

Your example is accurate of the situation. I have struggled with this since the tournament. You have made me feel better confirming that I made the correct decision at the table.

Of course as it turns out it worked against me. I hit to a ten and busted. the dealer turned over a 6 for a Hard 16 and drew a 9 to bust making Player B a winner and advancing to the final table.

I appreciate your response!!!

Mast11

 

Push

Monkeysystem,

If I get to 17 to and Push I lose because player B wins and passes me in chips

If I get to 18 and push I win

Of course if I get 19 or Above and Push I win


I had to push or win to advance since player C had the Low. My question really is this. Should i have stood and hope the Dealer busts or should i try to make a hand assuming the Delaer will make a hand?

 

Right Decision

Monkeysystem,

So I am confused now. In my situation should i have hit to try to make a hand, or take the chance of the dealer busting?

Mast

 

thanks Monkeysystem

Thank you!!

I have thought a lot about this since Saturday. being so close to a chance at 50K is depressing, and I just wanted to make sure I made the right decision. At the time I believed so but doubted my decision since it worked out like it did.

I love BJ tournaments, much more than Poker. I just wish i had a chnace to play more often.


Mast

 

I heard on TV that one needs to exercise one’s brain to help avoid Alzheimer’s and/or dementia (maybe even Mad Cow) so once a month I do just that. So I picked this thread for my exercise.

The fact that BR3 is a contender, be it minor, requires some additional (or different) calculations form the standard “hit to 18” which applies primarily when only 1 other contender is involved. The added catch is that if BR1 loses then he can not win the table.

As I understand the situation, BR1 only wins if one of the following two choices occur:
A) BR1 hits to 18, 19, 20, or 21 and at least pushes the dealer.
B) BR1 stands on his 15 and the dealer busts.

From the bits and pieces I picked up in this thread I’m assuming this took place at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana where they use an 8 deck shoe so I’ll use that to base the percentages upon. Dealer hitting or standing on soft 17 is of no significance at this point since the dealer up card is 10. The probabilities I used are as follows:
BR1 probability of hitting to 18 = .0769
BR1 probability of hitting to 19 = .0769
BR1 probability of hitting to 20 = .0769
BR1 probability of hitting to 21 = .0769
Dealer probability of having a final total of 17 = .1211
Dealer probability of having a final total of 18 = .1209
Dealer probability of having a final total of 19 = .1212
Dealer probability of having a final total of 20 = .3690
Dealer probability of having a final total of 21 = .0376
Dealer probability of busting = ………………………… .2301
(NOTE: Dealer probabilities add up to only .9999 due to rounding)

Scenario A:
If BR1 hits to at least 18, here are his chances of winning the table:

Hits to 18: .0769 X (.1211 + .1209 + .2301) = …………................................................……………… .0363
Hits to 19: .0769 X (.1211 + .1209 + .1212 + .2301) = …………….........................……............………. .0456
Hits to 20: .0769 X (.1211 + .1209 + .1212 + .3690 + .2301) = …............................………..........… .0740
Hits to 21: .0769 X (.1211 + .1209 + .1212 + .3690 + .0376 + .2301) = ..................................... .0769

So, if BR1 hits to at least 18, his chances of winning the table are …...............….…...................… .2328​

Scenario B:
If BR1 stands his chances of winning the table are the same as the probability of a dealer bust .............. .2301

Conclusion:
The probability of winning the table with hitting to at least 18 or standing on 15 are virtually identical - 3/10 of 1 percent difference. So there is no real wrong choice unless one comes across this a couple of million times!!!

Now I don’t have to use my brain for another month!!!

 

no wrong choice?

Toolman1,

WOW, very impressive. It was in fact the Horseshoe in southern Indiana. Were you there?

According to your description there were no right or wrong decision. I assume you are oneof the pros, or at least very expierenced tournament player. What would you have done?

Mast

 

Thanks for the complement, Mast11. But I'm not anywhere near a "pro". Just someone who enjoys BJ Tournaments as a hobby.

Yes, I was at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana for that tournament. Due to some unfortunate cards and a mistake on my part, I was not able to advance past the first round. My congratulations to you on making the final table. It's unfortunate that you didn't get better cards on the final hand. I did not watch the final table but I saw the guy that won. He did not seem to be very experienced but that's the breaks of the game.

What would I have done? Can't be sure unless I would be faced with your dilemma. I certainly would not have had the time to make the calculations - that would have been impossible. I do think I would have had a tendency to stand on the 15 because of the fear that busting out would have make it impossible to win the table. But I can't criticize your decision. You had to do what you felt most comfortable with - the Card Gods were just not smiling on you. I'm sure you will do well in future events. You seem to have the right instincts and a desire to learn - that's what is most important.

 

misunderstanding

Thanks Toolman1,

I think I have mis led you in my posts at some point. I did not make the Final Table. The hand I have explained is the hand that determined if I went to the Final Table or not. I was in Round 4 and the top 3 from each of the 2 remaining tables went to the Final Table.

I wondered how many Pro players, or Palyers like you were there. I didn't see Ken, or at least didn't reconize him if he was there. I knid of expected him to be there.

This is definately a hobby I would like to take up. Just wish there were more Tournaments closer.


Mast

 

I think everyone that responded to this thread was evidently mislead. However, the advice for a 1 winner situation was good so I'll just leave it at that.

You will not find many seasoned players at any of the BJTs at Horseshoe Southern Indiana. They do a mediocre to poor job of running the tournaments, most are top heavy in their prize pool, no max bet is not a good rule, impossible to know the rules until one registers, enforcement of the rules depends on the dealer (and his dislike for a given player), and of course the EV often sucks. Speaking of EV (expected value), they advertised they have room for 280 people. With a prize pool of $60,000 that makes each seat worth $214 ($60,000 / 280) if they filled up. So they charge $500 entry fee for a seat worth $214. Of course they did not come anywhere near that 280 target so the EV came out positive instead of negative. But one would not know that until the tournament started. The satellites also had a negative EV. So all things combined, not the type of tournament that would attract a lot of out-of-towners.

This tournament has to have been a disappointment to management. So they'll either cancel having future tournaments or blame the economy and/or a temporary lack of player interest and have future tournaments with the same bad features because they do not learn from their own mistakes.

 

Mast11, congrats on making the Semis. Even without the final table, you did very well. Isn't it a rush to get that close? Keep trying and someday soon you'll experience the overwhelming joy of actually picking one off. You're off to a good start - coming here with questions about your play. This is the place to get input from the best!

A great analysis from toolman, but I wouldn't expect anything less! Don't even try to fool us with that "I am not a pro" speech, you ain't foolin' anyone.

The main reason for this post is a response to toolman's comments about attendance at this event. Even though he and I knock heads here once in a while, this time we agree 100%. I looked long and hard at that BJT, really wanted to go, but simply couldn't get past the ridiculously top-loaded prize fund or the severe negative equity given a full field. Although I've been a proponent of the host house making a profit from the entry fees alone, over 50% is insane. And giving over 80% of the total cash to one player? Yikes! Those two reasons kept me away, and probably quite a few others as well. It was very good of them to honor the promoted prize fund despite the disappointing entry count, but let's be realistic. At $500 per entry, they still came mighty close to covering it.

There is, indeed, the possibility that this will turn into another case of a casino deciding that having BJT's just doesn't work. A problem seems to be that they try to host these without input from anyone who really knows what they're doing, then end up with something that isn't appealing to the majority. The net result is that they give up on, or significantly reduce, future BJT's when all they needed was some experienced advice.

 

Thanks LeftNut but I really am just an amateur. I know plenty of players that can make mincemeat out of me. The analysis may look impressive but I had all the time in the world to come up with it. In actual tournament play, my mind often turns to mush - as in Mad Cow.

As for as the the Horseshoe covering the prize money, if you take into account the profits from the satellites I would guess they about broke even.

The Horseshoe Southern Indiana (formerly Caesars Indiana) has been holding tournaments for many years. In their defense, the tournament rules keep changing over the years and generally for the better. However, it's a slow process and they still don't have it right. Plus the actual running of the tournament is poor and never improves - for one thing they never are "on time" with starting the play and calling wild cards is a joke. They bog themselves down in time consuming and tedious paperwork - hay, desktop computers are here (it's been in all the papers) and the necessary software can be gotten from other Harrah's properties. The bottom line is that there has been a general decline in attendance over the years and they have responded with fewer tournaments. So I hope they wake up and make improvements before they decide to do away with the BJTs.

 

My relative newness to this game shows - I didn't know they'd been running these for a while.

Kudos to them for continuing their efforts but it certainly sounds to me like they need to ask advice from someone with specific experience in promoting successful BJT's. If they've been trying that hard (for that long) and are still coming up with unattractive events, it's time to make some changes.

 

Where do you play

Leftnut,

I see you are from Michigan. Do you play in BJT's near you? If so where.

Mast

 

There are none anywhere nearby. All BJT's involve a minimum of 4 1/2 hours by car (St. Ignace and Niagara) from here.

 

Banned!

Word has it that LeftNut is not allowed to play local tourneys. When he shows up, everyone else withdraws!

Billy C