Just wanted an idea here on how to play this. One advance format, final hand, $5 minimum-$300 maximum bet, no surrender, BJ pays 2-1. BR1(ME), $505, BR2, $460, BR3, $220, BR4 $195. BR1 and BR 2 both bet $300, the other two players go all-in. BR1 is dealt a 10-4 BR2 6-3 BR3 10-7 BR4 4-4 Dealer up card is 10 BR1 is first to act should he hit or stand?
Stand You'd want to stand. You don't want the 6/13 risk of busting, giving three opponents a chance to swing you. BR2 and BR3 could swing you with a push or win. BR4 needs to win to swing you. The more opponents with a chance to swing you, the more you need to avoid the risk of busting. It's unlikely you'll be swung if you stand, given the hands your opponents have, especially BR2. If you stand BR2's best chance to beat you is to double. I would've been tempted to bet 40. You'd have had a virtual lockout over BR3 and BR4 with that bet. Lockouts are so important for your chances of winning that you should opt out of them only with great caution.
Monkey sense Agree with Monkey here on all counts except for what I'd have bet. Assuming you can DD on anything, DD for less, and the DD card is face down, I like $35 here. Having not seen the cards yet, the chance to basically DD for $5 with a hidden result is a good way to mess with someone else's head, especially if you have inexperienced players at the table. Of course, receiving the hard 14 yanked the rug out from under you but you wouldn't have known that when you made the initial bet.
Some Numbers The situation: ............BkRll........Bet.........Cards BR1........505........300........10 + 4 BR2........460........300......... 6 + 3 BR3........220........220........10 + 7 BR4........195........195......... 4 + 4 Dealer...................................10 (1) If everybody plays basic strategy (hit to 17) like automatons then BR1 will win 60.41% of the time. However the other BRs will adjust their play after seeing how BR1 ends up after hitting to 17 or higher or busting and thus 60.41% is too high. (2) If BR1 stands and the other BRs are basic strategy automatons then BR1's chance is 62.70%. Howevver BR2 can double down and BR3 and BR4 hit to 19 and then BR1's chances become 39.88% (3) If the double down card is delt face down and BR1 doubles for 5 and then if all the other BRs play basic strategy then BR1's chance is 61.10% Also here if BR2 doubles for the remainder of his chips then BR1's chances reduces to 51.96% (4) If the double card is delt face down and BR1 doubles for 120 (to take the high) and if the other BRs hit to 17 then BR1's chance is only 28.07% If the double card is delt face DOWN (to keep the others guessing) then BR1 should double for less. If the double card is delt face UP then BR1 hitting to 17 might be best. BR1 standing is best against BS automatons and bad against good tournament players. I believe by not playing basic strategy when obviously not indicated is usually a bad decision. Here taking essentially one hit with 14 with the hit card delt down is close to enough basic strategy. ..................................BlueLight
I'll assume that all cards will be dealt face up. In that case BlueLight is correct. Standing is not a viable option here. Why? Winning with 14 is worthless since BR2 will double behind you. Therefore we should either hit or double. With a dealer ten up, we don't want to give up the low to BR2 by doubling. That leaves hitting as the choice. Now the question is where to stand? Hit to 17, since a push with 17 has some value.
In this game, the double down cards are face-up, IF YOU HAVE A STIFF HAND. So in this case my double-down card would've been exposed. (I prefer the face-up like at St. Ignace, provides for a little more drama and excitement). As far as the play, I hit my hard 14 and pulled a 6. I was hoping for a push at this point. BR2 doubled on his 9, caught a 10, the dealer had a 7 in the hole for a weak 17. I like MonkeySystem and LeftNut's idea to bet my lead, I was just worried about the other two players catching a natural and with the 2-1 BJ getting swung.
I have a few numbers, assuming infinite decks and perfect play by all players. Standing wins 38.0%. Hitting to 17 wins 42.8%. Doubling wins 22.5%.
Thanks Guys! The same theory must then apply if the dealer upcard is 2-6. Schultzy's hard standing number against these upcards would be 17 also. Of course Schulty's best playing decision might be to double to cover BR2 in many of these cases. Not in this one of course. I love this game! It's a feast for us strategy wonks interested in game theory and mathematics. Back to my spreadsheets...
Yes, this game still surprises regularly. I'll be using the general concept of this teaser for my next BJI article.
Cool! But please don't identify me as one of the blockheads who thought standing on that hard 14 was a good idea. In retrospect, I like a 260 bet for BR1, betting first. You're gonna have to match BR2's double if you think he'll do that anyway, the 260 vs. the 300 doesn't penalize you at all, covers BR2's max bet, and also covers the (admittedly remote) chance of lose-push vs. BR3 and BR4. OK, only BR3, that's what I get for posting while exhausted
Schultzy Schultzy is a lucky man in that he gets to play in many, many BJ tourneys because of his locale, the heart of BJ wonderland. He can continually examine his play, fine tune, then alter his strategys and put it into action, very frequently... to see what works best. FREQUENTLY Many of us do not have such an opportunity and this is a detriment to honing ones skillz. I believe constant play is the real key to becoming deadly at the tournament tables, or for that matter the "Real Money Tables", as well as constant study and examination of tourney play. We need to train as top notch athletes, fighters. (And to get up off the floor when we have been dealt a hard blow). Schultzy certainly has this experience. CP
Hit to 17 tgun, I think you must hit to 17. I think the logic behind hitting the 14, remains the same wih a 15 or 16. If you hit and bust, you still have the low, hit and make 17-21, BR2 must double 9 vs 10. A push with BR3s 17 is also advantageous, if he decides to stand.(which he should not do). Ken mentioned that standing might trigger a double by BR2, and present a case in which he could win with a weak hand----- all the more reason to hit.
Dealer Upcard That should be true with any dealer upcard, though there must be situations in which it is beneficial to BR1 to double.
