How bad did I screw up this final hand?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by Chicago1972, Sep 15, 2012.

  1. Chicago1972

    Chicago1972 New Member

    Ok, this just happened 3 hours ago and I haven't been able to stop thinking about it. Final hand, I'm in first with 48500, 2nd and 3rd have 30000. 4th is out of the picture. I bet first. No limit. I bet 12000 to cover them going all in.
    These are the hands
    Me- 9
    BR2: 15 (all in)
    BR3: 14 (all in minus one chip)
    Dealer: 10

    Im think I'm sitting pretty. I hit , pull a 4. FML
    13 vs 10. I knew my opponents will hit. I'm assuming dealer has a 20. I hit and bust. My opponents hit and BR2 gets 18 and BR3 hits to 20. I pray the dealer shows a 10 and I win....she doesnt. Uncovers a 5 and busts. Please tell me I did the right thing OR at least help me understand why it wasn't. Thanks!
     
  2. PlayHunter

    PlayHunter Active Member

    All I can say is that you could improve your bet by betting 18000. This way if you would hit a blackjack, you would have covered a potential blackjack from your opponents. Also if you would not got a blackjack but one of your opponents would have hit one, then you would be able to double down in order to take the lead. With your 12000 would not be enough to do so.

    Regarding hitting your stiff hand to bust.. I would say it was just bad luck, but I think a stand would have been slightly improving your chances of success. (not sure about this tough, and I am looking forward to see more opinions too!)
     
    tucson1972 likes this.
  3. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    This is a close call.

    Numbers from my infinite-deck analysis software:
    Standing with 13 yields a 76.42% chance of success. Taking a card drops your chances to 75.46%.

    By the way, if you had a 12 instead, you should hit. So the decision point is between 12 and 13.

    It would not surprise me if the other contributors here who have non-infinite deck software might come up with a different answer.

    In any event, such a close call is nothing to be unhappy about, whichever decision you made. Things just went badly.

    P.S. PlayHunter is right about 18k being a better bet.
     
    tucson1972 and PlayHunter like this.
  4. tucson1972

    tucson1972 Member

    Right, thanks for bringing up the wager amount. Good point but I left out a detail. Blackjack pays 2:1 so IF they hit a blackjack they would've had 90,000 chips which would I'd have to give them the low in order to cover it because I don't think 18k bet would have covered...but again....good point, should typically bet the lead minus a chip.

    Thanks for the reassurance. Having a 13 I felt there were so many cards that would help...if I had a 14 would've thought harder...if I had a 15/16 would've stayed. Count was positive...but not THAT positive. Knowing my luck...I'd have stayed then the next card would've been a 7.....I just know it :)
    This is Chicago1972 by the way
     

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