Played at the Golden Nugget Vegas - this was the situation going into the last hand in button order (I had already busted out). 2 advance, max bet 2000, min bet 100 Plyr...........BkRll Allen.........5200 Baker........5100 Chuck.......4900 Playing a simple strategy Chuck acts out of turn and puts out the max 2000 before anyone else gets a chance to bet. The situation now looks like this: Plyr...........BkRll..........Bet........Cards.........Action Allen.........5200.........2000.......10+6..........Stood Baker........5100.........2000.......10+5..........Stood Chuck.......4900.........2000.......10+3.............? Dealer......................................10 Chuck takes a hit and gets a 3 for 16. Now fearing about busting he stands on 16. How many mistakes (and how bad were they) did Chuck make on this hand? ..............................BlueLight
Mistake 1 was a biggie. Betting out of turn made life far too easy for Chuck's opponents. Mistake 2 was not doubling. Doubling here is far better than trying to hit out to a better hand. Mistake 3 was not realizing that if he neglected to double, he could not stand on 16 but instead had to make a hand to have any chance of advancing. Standing stiff locks hims out completely. He should have hit again. If he drew an Ace for 17, he should hit yet again. Infinite deck numbers: p(Stand stiff): 0.00% p(Double): 31.27% p(Hit to 17+): 21.40% p(Hit to 18+): 21.80% Those numbers are from his starting hand of 13. Once he made the hard 16, it looks like this: p(Stand): 0.00% p(Hit to 17+): 17.13% p(Hit to 18+): 17.45%
Mistake 4? Mistake 4 - I think his original bet should have been $1,700 which gives him a tie for 1st low and allows doubling to cover a natural by either or both BR1 and BR2 but he bet 1st out of turn which amplifies the cost of Ken's mistake 1.
Let's Pick on Baker Chuck is too easy a target. Given that Chuck bet first, it would seem to me that Baker made a mistake as well.
If Baker can bet in $25 increments, he could bet $1875 here which is definitely an improvement. (He has 1st low and 2nd high instead of the current 2nd low and 2nd high.) If he must bet in $100 increments instead, he's better off with a $1900 bet than his $2000. At least he gets a tie for first low now with BR1.
I like all of the answers. Ken, the Nugget LV tournaments require bets in $100 increments which can limit the BJT assassin's options. If that wasn't true, then of course your solution looks excellent. Rookie, I like your $1700 bet very much but like $1600 better. Doing so puts BR1 Allen in a box as he must either give up the pure high to BR2 Baker or give up the low to BR3 Chuck. Granted, $1600 gives away the chance to double over any opponent's BJ but that's unlikely enough that I'd like the options it creates. One of those would be a possibility of doubling for less to barely take the high - something which can confuse an opponent who might not be experienced. Kelly, you hit the nail right on the head. BR2 Baker was handed a beautiful opportunity and donked it off bigtime. Good teaser, BlueLight!
Oops! Just had it pointed out to me that I missed the "two advance" in Bluelight's original teaser post. Oops. This sorta yanks the rug out from under my post right above this one. For a one-advance or final table situation, I still like what I posted but it's really not such good advice for a two-advance situation. Rookie's 1700 bet is quite excellent.
