A local casino is having a Free Blackjack Tournament this Saturday to celebrate their second anniversary. The qualifying rounds run from 10AM to 6PM. There is no charge. When you register you receive $500 in tournament chips. Then find an empty spot at one of the tournament tables and sit down to play 10 hands. I don't believe they have any idea how many will participate but the top 18 chip holders advance to the semi finals at 6PM. I don't believe there will be any way to know what the totals are. I suspect there be some number of people that will go all in on the first hand and win and some that will lose. There will also be some people that will win most every hand and some that will lose most every hand. Most people will probably win around half the hands. So my question is, What should my target be? Is there anyway to even get an estimate?
Some Questions What casino is that? Will they be maintaining a leader board? One would think so. You may want to ask the tournament director. Will players get to try more than once? What method will the casino use to limit players to only one try? You'll need to somehow get an estimate of how many players will have tried by the end of the qualifying rounds. You can figure that each player will sit down for about ten minutes. Count the number of players at one time and multiply by six to get the number of players per hour. Multiply again by eight to get a total for eight hours. If there are only a handful of players there you'll want to do this several times at different times to get a good average. Bear in mind that the table(s) will be more crowded when it gets close to the end. Bring a calculator that does square roots. Divide the total number of players by eighteen, take the square root of this figure, and then multiply by 500. If players get to try more than once then each attempt counts as an additional player. Example: If there are 180 total tries then it's 180/18 = 10. Square root of 10 equals about 3.2. 3.2 * 500 = 1600. Bet the max until you get there or bust out trying. Then bet the minimum. If there's a leaderboard you can refine this estimate but remember the cutoff will climb quite a bit near the end as players get more aggressive. Sit down a play as late as you can so you get the best estimate. But don't wait so long that you don't get a seat.
The Casino is Diamond Jo in Worth County IA. Don't know about a leader board. I'll try and find out tomorrow night. You can only try once. You have to check in and show your picture ID and club card to get an entry. Thanks for the info on estimating.
My experience with Wong's square root formula has been very favorable. However, it will not work in this situation. To quote from his book:This relationship (square root) holds best for large numbers of contestants advancing to the next round; when twenty or fewer contestants advance, the square-root relationship breaks down. Since this tournament is free and will only take about 10 minutes to play, there could easily be 1,000+ players. So with only 18 advancing out of a huge pool of players, I doubt Wong's formula will be of much value - by his own admission. The reason being that in any accumulation tournament there are always a few players with "run away" totals. With only a few advancing, those "run away" totals will be most of the winners. How much do you need? Without a leader board, that's a crap shoot. However, you will need a very large amount. Since there is no max bet, if you go "all in" on all 10 hands that should do it!!! All kidding aside, considering that the prize pool is small, if this tournament is easy for you to get to then give it a shot "for the hell of it". If traveling time/expense is an issue then forget it.
I found out this morning that there were 269 entries in the tournament. So by the above formula the target would be $1881. Low qualifier was $1865. So at least in this case it would've been a good estimate if I could've known the entries ahead of time. Before my round I decided my target was $2500. They did not post a leaderboard but if you asked the right person they would tell you what you had to do. That ticked off a couple people but I think they got over it. I started out doing a half my BR for the first 3 hands. Just couldn't bring myself to go all in right away. At hand 9 I had 1160 and put it all in. I got a BJ which paid 2 - 1 so then I was up to 3480. The pit boss looked at me and said, So what you gonna do now? Then whispered that 3000 should be safe. So I bet $5 on the last hand and ended with 3475. That was good for 6th high. The semifinals were elimination style. The 18 qualifiers played 3 tables. Top 2 from each table went to the finals. 7th through 18th got $25. I started out and built a lead with a couple large bets when I was last or next to last. I coasted from about hand 9 to the end. On the last hand everyone went for second and left me alone. So I won the semi-finals and moved on to the finals. The finals were 6 players for 20 hands. Again I built up a sizable lead with big bets on the 2nd and 3rd hands. Then the 7th hand I was last again so I had a big bet again and got a BJ. Dealer had an A up. Normally I would've passed on even money but I decied to take it saying, "Dan, Only because I want you to have a BJ, I'll take it." Sure enough he had the BJ. Came down to the last hand as follows in order of acting BR2 - $1170 - Bet $500. BR1(Me) - $1460 - Bet $10 saying "Dan, another Blackjack would be good" BR3 - $1070 - Bet $605 BR4 - $100 - Bet $100. My thinking with BR3 after me was I couldn't set up High without giving away the Low. So I just went for the Low. To my delight Dan showed a King and checked for BJ, flipping over the A of spades to give me the win. I got $1000 in gaming chips. Tossed $50 out on the table says "Thanks Dan!" and took my $950 with me to the cashier. I managed to bring that home so I was happy with the trip. I'm currently on a 3 week run not losing money playing BJ. The rest of the people didn't tip at all.
First of all, congrats to Mr. Bill for taking it down! :1st: :cheers: That last hand would be an interesting teaser/puzzle. What should Mr. Bill have bet instead of the $10? We would need to know some specific rules that were in play, such as max bet, was surrender allowed, were DD cards dealt face up/down, and the prize payout for all 4 remaining places.
Even Money For future reference, when BJ pays 2-1, you should buy insurance instead of taking even money. If the dealer has BJ, you still get 3-2 on your insurance bet & push your main bet; if he doesn't, you end up with 3-2 by losing the insurance bet. Sometimes, with a big bet it is a huge difference. Of course, if you were all in, it is not an option.
I understand how you would get 3-2 if the dealer doesn't have BJ, but I don't see how you get 3-2 on the insurance bet with a push. I had bet $270 so I could take insurance for $135. If the dealer has BJ it's a push and I get paid $270 for the insurance. How is that different than even money? lt is kind of interesting though. I'll have to see if they even allow it.
2-1 Bj If the dealer has a BJ it is the same as even money. But, if the dealer doesn't, you lose your insurance 135 win your BJ 540. 405 profit. So you always win with insurance for 2-1 BJ's. Unless you absolutely need the 2-1 payout.
Where does the $500 figure originate from in this formula? Is $500 the starting stack? Reason I ask is if I should apply the above to a baccarat tourney with the following rules.. Rounds 1 and 2 are cumulative...highest totals move to Q/Finals. $25,000 bankroll in both rounds. Since no commision is taken on any bets...I'm guessing it would be wise to make every bet on Banker? Thanks
