Question for all the regulars. On the last hand of a 21 game play, you need to make a bet which is secret from all the other players. You can go all in if you wish. You are player #2., How do you figure what the bet is? Player 1, 7,100 Player 2, 15,950 Player 3, 18,200 Player 4, 11,500 Player 5, 11,000 Player 6, 7,000
I'll assume that this is a one-winner format, and that bets are in $100 increments. You as player two are BR2. I would want to bet enough to take the high over BR3 and BR4, and hope for a better hand outcome than BR1. You need to bet at least $7100 to cover BR3 all-in high. I'll leave it to you to figure out why $12,900 is also a good choice. However, I would bet more. BR1 may not want to risk the $13,800 he needs to cover you all-in. There is not much benefit to any unbet chips left after you make a large bet, so I would bet my entire bankroll as player 2. Against inexperienced competitors, I might hold back two or three hundred just in case everyone goes all-in and the dealer beats us all. This has little chance of success, but the cost is minimal.
My bet was 15000, but thinking after I should have bet 5000. Here is the run down. Player 1 bet 7100 lost all the bet. Player 2 bet 15000, lost left 950 4th place Player 3 bet 9100 lost, left 9100 won 1st place Player 4 bet 9000 lost, left 2500 Player 5 bet 10900 lost, left 100 Player 6 bet 100, won left 7100 I was going for the total win, when i should have played for a good position on the money line payout.
Details, details. You didn't say this was a final table. My answer would quite possibly be different now. I assumed one-winner only, and this was an early round table. I don't like betting any extra money since this is a final table, so I like $7100 here. However, this is now a question that has many relevant details. For example, the exact breakdown of money would be important in deciding how to maximize EV. For many people the thrill of winning first place means they have an entirely different utility function in this decision. In other words, it gets complicated.
You can't cover BR1 if he goes all-in, but you can cover everyone else. If BR3 bets his $11,500 and wins, he has $23,000. If you win $7100, you have $23,050.
o for $$ or glory lougars you’ve got very good response from Ken. Ay, also true, those things get really complicated. With the time (and experience) we learn to isolate the most important aspects of strategies and pick better option faster and more precise, though not necessary they will be optimal. Learning some statistics is crucial, and just a few, like dealer’s outcomes, chances of winning doubled bets, chances of different number of players winning/pushing/losing, helps a lot and sure you can expand them more. Let me elaborate how I would try to approach your final hand betting. Being BR2 puts you in a bad position to win the table if BR1 bets big. You have to win and your opponent push or lose, or you have to push and he has to lose (then, BR3 and BR4 can’t win their bets). This (since you can not double to pass BR1) gives you roughly only 20% to overcome BR1. So, the first key question is will BR1 bet big enough (+12,700) to lock you out if you win your all-in. If he bets less than that you would have much improved chance to take the first place because whenever you win your hand – you win the table. That’s a big difference. The second subject to consider, since your chances for the first place by “high bet” are small, is what are the chances of succeeding if your opponents (and most likely you, by the laws of correlation) lose their bets. Perhaps surprisingly to some all 3 players lose or push 34% of the time. Since you need BR1 to lose (not push) and BR3 and BR4 push or lose the numbers gets smaller but it is still 29%. Not bad. Now, you need to figure out how much to bet to have “the low” chances and in addition have benefits of winning your hand while your opponents are less lucky. BR1-18,500... BR2-15,950.. BR3-11,500.. BR4-11,000.. BR5-7,100.. BR6-7,000 Looking at their bankrolls you have to chose between four bets: 1. ~15,000 go for high. 2. 7,100 covers all-in by all except BR1 (aside from BR3/BR4 bj, which you can be overcome by doubled bet). 3. 4,400 keeping more unbet money than anybody else but BR1. 4. 1,700 keeping more money like above and locking out BR5 and BR6 even if they win all-in not bj. You can cover BR1 push and BR5 and BR6 bj by doubling but can’t win with BR3 and BR4 all-in. The table below shows guess/estimate chances for all of those bets rounded broadly. BET...................1ST PLACE........2ND PLACE......3-4TH PLACE.........5-6TH PLACE 15,000..................20%....................30%....................30%.........................20%....... BR1 bets 12,500+ 15,000..................40%....................10%....................30%.........................20%....... 67% chances that BR1 bets less than 12,500 7,100....................30%....................30%....................30%.........................10%....... 50/50 BR1 bets 11,700+ 4,400....................35%....................25%....................30%.......................<10%....... 1,700....................30%..................+25%....................40%..........................5%....... . You can put specifc prizes for % values and decide wheather to go for $$ or glory. S. Yama
Thank you, for the well written run down. I was going for the win while betting the 15000. Glory and money, but looking back at the situation 7100 would have been the smarter bet, of course if I had won the table and the the top prise money I would have thought perfect bet, perfect timing. But this allows me to hone my betting for the final round next time. My bet of 15000 was not totally wrong, however next time I will re-think.
good bet lougars, if you could see all your opponents bets in the open (not secret bets) you should make bet in exactly the same range you did. Sure it would be nice to win, but sometimes we don't win with best bets and often not so good bets make players winners. But the more often we make good bets the less luck we need. Thinking and rethinking different ways of playing is the way to improve the game and so much fun. GL, S. Yama
