Here's the lowdown. Elimination hand 16 You're BR5 with 34000 BR6 has 18,000 BR5 has 45,000 BR3 and above more than 45,000 with BR1 having around 60,000 3 people advance. BR6 is first on the button and uses his secret bet (assume it is all-in by his prior plays) BR5 - you are next - Bet 12,000 Others on the table bet similar but right now you're concentrating on BR6 to your right. BR6 gets 13 BR5 (you) get 11 Dealer has a face card up BR6 hits to 18 Now it's your turn. If the dealer busts you're still in, BRL but still in it If you win you don't get eliminated and due to the bets will likely be BR3. BTW, seat 2 has a pair of 3's and other players have potentially splitable hands. WHAT DO YOU DO?
Hit With 18 vs 10 BR6 is a dog to the dealer by nearly 65%. Obviously you're not going to stand and you have no need to DD. In fact DD could be dangerous because you then could lose to a push and if you've miscalculated BR6's secret bet you may have given up the low. If you stand = 87.86% chance of winning If you hit once and get 12-17 = 87.86% chance of winning If you hit once to 18-21 = 100% Therefore the total chances of winning if you hit once are 94.4% If for some mad reason you decided to hit again and busted = 65% chance of winning In summary - Hit once, get 18 or more you're home and dry. Don't double because you then risk your low end without any appreciable gain. Cheers Reachy
Don't hit a stiff! If you hit and get a stiff don't hit it again (contrary to BS). If for example you get 13 ( ) you will win if you hit about 82% of the time but it would be 87% for standing. Cheers Reachy
