Based on entry fees and number of players, how do you actually calculate the ev of a tournament. Since most are guarenteed prize pools, should the prize pool be "X" times the entry fee or something. Can you use the SPLIT Winstar tourney as an example. Also other than Ken's ebook and Wong's CTS is there any other advanced book learnings on the subject.
Guarenteed! Guarenteed usually means based upon a certain minimum amount of initial entrys or rebuys. Usually you need a bit of history from a certain casino to grasp a true value. Also if rooms and food are included, do you give these perks some discounted value? It is difficult to get hard info too, like how many entrys and rebuys or even the final prize structure. Knowing how many comped entrys can help know how strong the field might be. Maybe alot of the field earned their way into the tourney based on random drawings? This gets into subjective versus objective value, but is very important in deciding if you are going to plunk down real money to enter.
estimate a couple of ways to estimate ev 1. divide the number of seats at the final table by the total number of players present - so - if 6 seats at final table, 180 players present - thats 6/180 = 1/30. Take the total prize pool awarded to the final table, say $30,000, divide this by the number of seats at final table, so $30,000/6 = $5,000.. Then multiply the first number you came up with times that; 1/30 X $5,000; ev is $166.66; if the entry fee is less than that - its a positive ev tourney - if more, negative ev. 2. Better way, if you know format, say first round, 1 of 6 advance; semifinal, 1 of 6 advance, then odds to final table are 1/36. then calculate the final table split, as above, and use the format odds so - 1/36 X $5,000; ev is $138.88; and you can compare that to the entry fee. you'll need to do some guessing and estimating, on total players, and maybe make some assumptions on format, - based on prior tournaments.
There's no need to complicate things by considereing the composition of the final table. The above calculation gives the same as dividing the prize pool by the number of players : $30,000 / 180 = $166.66. (Moreover the pay structure might include more than just the finalists, so you would want to do it this way in any case.) That doesn't make sense. Implicit in your 1/36 odds is the assumption that everyone has the same chance of success (and in fact the same chance of finishing in any of the possible positions). With that assumption, the EV can only ever be $166.66. The reason you get a different figure is that 180 players, with one advancing from tables of 6, actually implies only five finalists :- R1: 180 players = 30 tables of 6 R2: 30 players = 5 tables of 6 R3: 5 players = 1 table of 5 And if only the finalists get payed then we have $30,000 divided among 5 in some way, with a 1/36 probabilty of being among the five lucky finalists. 30,000 / 5 = 6,000 1/36 * 6,000 = 166.66 If you start trying to take account of your own skills, the skills of an 'average' opponent, and the spectrum of different skill levels of all the players, then the format - how many rounds? how many advance? what's the pay structure? - must have an impact. But otherwise, it can't be relevant.
good comments good comments London I was being unnecessarily complex in the first example - in the second, I was not necessarily assuming 180 players - I like using the actual format - and figuring odds to final table that way - as those are the odds you are actually dealing with when you sit down at a first round table - and this may well give a different ev than using the total number of players - as rebuys and wild cards may produce additional final table players - when doing generic ev calculations - I think you are talking about the 'average' player - so aren't really looking at skill level - I actually calculate my personal ev for certain tournaments I play on a regular basis - or may play again - or may be interested in playing, using format and my edge as calculated from past performance - even use edges based on number of players advanced - so have different edges for single advance, two advance, etc. - and also include travel costs, rebuys, and when possible, odds to wildcard; insanely complex - but helps decide if a tourney is worth going to
But it's the same for everyone. Unless you are factoring in some kind of assesment of the other players, then eveyone who sits down at a first round table is dealing with the same odds. If 180 people enter a room and emerge some time later with $30,000 distributed among them, then they each have a $166.66 EV. [Edit: Let me rephrase some of that - Once you sit down at a first round table, you have already decided to play in the tournament, and therefore presumably already assessed the EV. If it turns out that you find yourself at an advantage due to a quirk of the format (e.g., all the other tables have 6 players and yours only has five), then obviously your EV has improved. But that is because the game has already started; it's no different to getting good cards on your first hand. So everyone who sits down at a first round table may not be dealing with the same odds, but a few moments earlier they were. ] I don't see how different numbers making it to the final table can have any impact on the EV. Everyone starts out with the same chance of getting there and, once there, everyone has the same EV from the final table. It will affect your probability of winning a particular amount, but the EV itself is immutable. In the context of travel expenses, I can see that the existence of rebuys and wildcards has an impact on the 'generic' EV, since they dilute the one-off costs. But once you are there and the travel costs have already been spent, only differences in skill can make your EV anything other than prize_pool / num_players.
Im still having trouble understanding/figuring EV also. Maybe if someone can post the "break even" number for +/- EV for the following tourney I will see it more clearly using actual numbers. FWIW..this is the $100k guaranteed tourney currently being played at LVH. Prize Structure... 1st...$50,000 2nd...$12,000 3rd...$8,000 4th...$6,000 5th...$4,000 6th...$3,000 7th...$2,000 8th-22nd...$1,000 1st Round....306 of 840 starting entrants advance. 2nd Round...114 of 306 advance 3rd Round...48 of 114 advance 4th Round...21 of 48 advance 5th Round... 7 of 21 advance to Final Table Thanks for any help.
If you consider all players to have an equal chance, then the structure is not relevant. The only factors that matter are - Prize pool = $100,000 Players = 840 EV per player = $100,000 / 840 = $119 So $119 is the break-even point.
I think using the Hilton game is a bad example because it is an invite or win your way in with a suited BJ event. The number Colin came up with is 119-the question is where does 119 stand against how much it cost you to win the invite? Did it cost you more to win it? The EV is a mathematical number used to decide if the game has a positive or negative value. Here is an example of a game I have a chance to play next week at Pechanga. $100,000/400players = $250/player the ev is $250 The buy in for the game is $299 which gives me a negative $49 So using the ev and my buy price Im at a negative which is bad. Thats not all. There are no rebuys. Even tho there is no way to add this into the simple mathematical equation of- prize over players- this is an important consideration. No rebuys reduces the value of the game for me because I have fewer chances to advance. This is a 1/7 advance game which yields about a 25% chance for me so I need more chances! Basically ev calc is too simple. It is only a piece of the decision of to play or not.
Ev Thanks for all the EV info. I don't have the numbers at hand but would like to know if anyone remembers what the EV was for the last Tunica Goldstrike tournament, which included promo chips? tgun
Hilton much worse optional mulligan for $100 which you can you use once each round. 1) replace 1 of your first 2 cards or 2) replace any subsequent card. IMHO this reduces equity to <$20. without mulligan, you have almost zero chance to win not a good tournament. BTW : congrates to Mike for 2nd at $12K. nice use of mulligan on last hand for a push. winning hand gets him $50K
I think we are making a mountain out of a mole hill here. EV means different things when applied to different scenarios. For example: The EV of a final table seat is different than the EV of a seat at beginning of that tournament. The EV of a Promo Chip is HOW MUCH CASH IS THE CHIP WORTH, ON AVERAGE, AT A GAMING TABLE. These are just 2 examples of how the term EV can be used and therefore involve a different calculation. But the question was simply, how do you calculate EV: The formula to calculate the EV OF A TOURNAMENT SEAT is as simple as London Colin stated and reinterated: TOTAL PRIZE POOL / NUMBER OF PLAYERS = EV The TOTAL PRIZE POOL can change dependent on, among other factors, 1) the required number of players as stipulated by the casino and/or 2) if re-buys are added to the prize pool. So determining the TOTAL PRIZE POOL can be a problem but the formula remains the same. As a side note, if a tournament is paid in ONE USE PROMO CHIPS, only count the EV of the Prom Chip – not the face value of the Promo Chip – when figuring out TOTAL PRIZE POOL. I don’t know the details of the Winstar tournaments. The monthly and final final table details would have to be known to calculate the EV. How the prize money is distributed and the tournament structure (how players advance) is immaterial. For the LVH tournament, the EV is $119 ($100,000 / 840). That’s it, nothing more, nothing less. Once the EV is known, that’s a starting point in determining if you want to enter the tournament. Some of the other factors are (none of which have anything to do with EV): Entry fee. Incidental Costs – transportation, rooms, food, etc. Your time spent Quality of players – you want a lot of ploppies. Etc., etc., etc. One thing to remember, once you subtract your TOTAL costs from the EV you will most likely come out negative. So some members here will say “hell, then I’m not going to play”. But using that logic, those members should rarely play any tournament unless it’s right around the corner. Even the Winstar would probably come out negative for most out of town players if transportation, lodging and food costs are factored in. I say this, if you believe you have the skills to be at the final table say at least 2 times more often than the average player, then you should overcome most any negative cost calculations of playing. If you get to the final table 5 times more often then the average player, then you are way way ahead of the game. If your skills are that of a ploppy, play slot tournaments for a better chance of winning. One last thought, I strongly disagree with the negative comment made about the LVH tournaments. Anyone making the semi-final gets $1,000 if he/she does not advance. The average player will make the semi final table 1 in 40 (840 / 21) tries. So a good player (not great) should make the semi-final 5 times more often or 1 in 8. So let’s crunch some numbers: Prize money is $1,000 (for making the semi final) Entry costs: Expected cost of getting a Suited BJ with a $10 bet = $4.20 ($10 x 84 x .005) Mulligan Cost = $100 Total cost for 1 tournament = $104.20 ($100 + $4.20) Total cost for 8 tournaments = $833.60 ($104.20 x 8) Expected gain for 8 tournaments = $166.40 ($1,000 - $833.60) So, you see, this tournament basically costs nothing for any decent player. Couple that with the fact that you are playing against a whole lot of ploppies (first time, inexperienced players) and I see a lot of $$$. Raw odds of getting to the final table are 1 in 120 (840 / 7). Again, if you are a good player, you should make the finals at least 5 times more often or 1 in 24 (120 / 5). Not bad for a “free” shot at $50,000 first place – not bad at all.
Winstar Whoever this person is, he/she has a damn good handle on the question. So, here's the Winstar information for you to chew on, best as I know it. I'm not revealing anything here that isn't public information freely available on their website. Entry fee is $550, and there's 180 free entries for each month that they randomly pass out to table games players, as noted at some length elsewhere in this forum. There will be a total of 5 monthly qualifiers, all with the same prize schedule. Maximum number of entries each month is 360. We'll use the May "qualifier" tournament as an example. Entries: 213 (or so I heard) Prize fund: $100,000 broken down as follows - 1st $50,000 2nd $15,000 3rd $10,000 4th $5,000 5th $2,500 6th $2,500 7th - 36th $500 (semi-final round) Now for the wild card in your calculations. 28 people have earned or will earn seats in the Finals in August. The prize payout for that event: 1st $1,000,000 2nd $250,000 3rd $150,000 4th $125,000 5th $100,000 6th $75,000 7th - 12th $23,500 13th - 28th $10,000 Have fun with this one and please post your conclusions!
The value of a seat in the final is $2M / 28 = $71,429. Each qualifier awards (on average) 5.6 seats (i.e. 28/5). So the prize pool of a qualifier is $100,000 + 5.6 * $71,429 = $500,000. For the max 360 entries, that's $500,000 / 360 = $1,389. For 213 enties, $500,000 / 213 = $2,347
Thanks for the vote of confidence LeftNut and a belated congratulations on your Winstar win. Now you need to take your skills to the final event and bring in the really big bucks. I don't now, and will never be, posting much. I am a very private person and want to keep it that way. I joined this thread because I sensed it was deviating from it's initial intent and I felt that knowing EV is a necessary, although small, part of the knowledge that every tournament player should know. I hoped that one or more of the "pros" would jump in so when they didn't I figured I'd give it a shot. Now some questions and comments: 1) Winstar details: LeftNut, you said 28 players in the play off in August and 25 come from the monthly qualifiers. Where do the other 3 come from? 2) Winstar EV calculations: I don't have time right now to go over these calculations fully but your statement "For the max 360 entries, that's $500,000 / 360 = $1,389" confuses me. There are 360 possible different players each month and each month the prize pool is $100,000 - not 360 players going for $500,000. My plate is pretty full right now so I don't have time to fully address the Winstar EV question. I'll get back to it before too long. In the mean time, how about some thoughts on this subject from other members?
What I'm saying is that the prize pool for each qualifier consists of $100,000 in cash plus $400,000 in the value of the 5.6 seats effectively awarded. As a sanity check, the simple total_prize_pool / total_players calculation for the combined qualifiers + final (assuming the max 360 players in each qualifier, which makes 1800 players in all) gives - ($2M + 5 * $100,000) / 1800 = $1,389 - the same as the calculation for the value of a 360-player qualifier, which is encouraging. Qualifiers with a smaller field obviously have a higer value, hence the need for the more complicated approach.
Thank you for the congrats! I still cannot believe it, and it's been 3 weeks! As far as Winstar's 28 finalists for the $2M event, they are determined as follows: Six final table players from each of 5 monthly tournaments are eligible. A reality-TV-show type of system is used to weed those 6 down to five players who are guaranteed their seats. After 5 months, there are 5 odd-man-out folks left, who will return to Winstar and play a single tournament round to determine the top 3, and those 3 get seats. 5 finalists X 5 months = 25 finalists, plus the 3 from the last table.
Winstar $2mil You could actually win a monthly and not make it to the final tournament. But if I was the one with the low card to pick someone to play it wouldn't be the person who made first.
My response on this thread to the question of EV for the Winstar event isn't really necessary since London Colin already responded with the right answer. My only comment is that I like to keep things as simple as possible so I tend to go with the simpler calculation: 5 monthly events, each awarding the same number of seats to the August event worth $2,000,000 = $400,000 value each month Each monthly event pays = $100,000 So each monthly event is worth = $500,000 Assume each month has the max of = 360 players Restating the simple basic formula - TOTAL PRIZE POOL / NUMBER OF PLAYERS = EV Calculation of EV of a seat in a monthly tournament: $500,000 /360 = $1,389 To restate what I said before, how the prize money is distributed (as long as the total is $500,000 per month) has no bearing on the EV. Nor do the rules for advancing. Naturally, as was stated, if there are less than 360 players in a given month then simply substitute that lesser number for the 360 in the formula. Since the prize pool is fixed, the EV for any given month will rise as the number of players decrease for that month.
