You are BR3 on final hand of a top-2 advance table. Only 3 players left. BR1: 10,000 -- bets $100 BR2: 9500 -- bets $4500 BR3 (You): 9000 -- bets $4500 Obviously not the best situation to be in betwise but you had to bet first. Dealer has 10 up. BR1 and BR2 get hard 18. You have hard 17. Hit is not a an good option -- Curt's revenge (Wong), you should double if you are going to hit. Or should you stay? Double or stay? This was a double deck, S17 game. Will provide details of how I played it and result after hearing your advice.
This is actually a very close decision, with standing and doubling less than 1% apart. Using infinite deck calculations, standing is slightly better at 22.98% chance of advancing. Doubling gives you 22.35%.
If two advance, then I don't think hitting is any different from doubling in this case; all it affects is whether you finish in first or second if you should win the hand. BR1 can't overtake you if you win your 4500 bet. However, if BR2 were a novice, you might try a double for less in the hope that BR2 might become confused and double for the full amount. Unlikely, but you never know.
Fair enough, it really is a Push-is-as-bad-a-loss situation, I guess. Doubling wouldn't have helped since BR2 was only one point ahead of me. Basically I have to win the hand, which will guarantee a top 2 (by beating BR1). A push would win for me if I got to 19, 20 or 21 first, I guess. But basically I need to either win the hand, or at least do better than BR2. There was no way BR2 was going to double for more. He was a novice, but I was 100% confident he would just stand, which he did. Most novices play the final hand with normal basic strategy, unless it is obvious they should deviate. In the end I stayed. Next card was a 2. Which the dealer used to make 18 when she had a 6 in the hole. Hitting or doubling would have won it for me.
