Min bet 500 Max Bet 25,000 surrender available 2 players left only one advances Player A 69,000 bets 18,000 Player B 50,000 bets 25,000 Hands Player A 10-10 Player B 5-6 Dealers up card 10 What should player A do with their 10-10 and should player A decision be based upon the skill level of player B Joep
Definately a split situation Bottom line is, regardless of the skill level of player B they are more than likely to double -- an amateur would be a slave to the Basic Strategy play, and a pro would recognize it was his only way of winning the tourney. So rather than take the 'low' and waving off, hoping that player B makes a crappy hand that the dealer beats, i would be more proactive and split. Then i would stand on any total of 14 or higher (according to the proper rules regarding how to play a split if BOTH hands must win), and leave it up to player B to double. I know the argument here will be that player B has a good chance of making a 21 and winning while the dealer makes a 20 and beats one or both of player A's hands, but the majority of the time, player B will still LOSE in this situation, which will effectively make Player A winning either of the two new split hands a moot point (he still wins by 8000 even if player B only hits and loses). ALSO -- splitting still keeps the low to player B, while also providing the High to a double-max-bet win by player B as well. Ultimate flexibility. But of course, the decision is ruled by the math, not the instinct. Maybe Yama has the exact numbers on the probabilities of these different events coming to pass, or have you run the numbers already, Joe? -holly d.
I'm going to stand Sorry HD, but I'm not going to allow Player B to surrender into the low. With a dealer 10 up, I'll take my chances and stand on my 20. Now I'm really curious about the right answer.
Final Numbers Interesting case: Arlalik and I just finished the calculations. The Numbers are: If Player A STANDS then he advances with ~49% In this case the best play for player B is double If Player A SPLlTS then his best playing strategy is not to bust neither of hands. We outlined 5 Major groups of hands after split, considering expert play for B. 1. One of the hands after split is 20 or 21, the other is 17,18 or 19 In this case the best play for B is to double. 2. One of the hands is 20 or 21, the other is stiff In this case the best play for B is hit 'til 18. 3. One of the hands is 20, other 21 In this case B should double 4. Both hands are 20 In this case B must hit 'til 21 5. Both hands are less than 20 In this case B should surrender Multiplying the probabilities of these situations by probabilities for player A to advance accordingly, we found the total chances for A. Without going through the details, this Number is... ~58% As we can see Split is 9% better than Stand.
Surrender available? Dammit, i knew i shoulda taken more reading lessons in elementary school. Still working on that skill -- Yeah, with surrender any pro would try to take the low -- unless the split ended up as two additional tens or aces. So the question DOES become the skill level of your opponent -- an amateur would almost always double, necessitating the split. A pro would surrender into the low as long as you aren't dealt an ace or face (because even if you split & push one hand and lose the other, you still clear a push or surrender by Player B). Even still, its still a compelling move to split, even into a pro. By waving off, you give your opponent a chance to double; 30% of the time, a 10 will give him a 21 and a virtual lock on beating you. Plus, the dealer can bust or make a hand lower than the DD player, giving your opponent close to a 40% chance of advancing overall. But if you split, you'd have to LOSE BOTH of your hands while the other player surrenders to actually lose -- something that happens LESS than 40% of the time. Keep in mind, a single push is actually as good as a win in this scenario, even if you lose the other hand. So to be fair, i may actually WANT the other player to surrender into that low, if i can manage to hit just one ten on one of my splits. Then all i need to worry about is the dealer somehow managing to hit to a perfect 21. -hd.
Thanks for the opportunity to learn Thanks to joep, tirlebj & Hollywood for the chance to look at a problem from several different angles. Tirle I appreciate you taking the time to run the numbers....the statistics don't lie and after looking at it in more detail with the explanation provided by both you and Hollywood, I can certainly see the merits of the more aggressive, proactive approach. This is such a fun game! Thanks again.
Because UTVolfan if Player A bet an extra $1,000 and lost and Player B pushed they would have been tied at the end of regulation play with $50,000 each. However Player A could have bet and extra $500 ($18,500) leaving himself a $500 cushion and still protecting himself against Player B's blackjack, (pushing at $87,500 each). This is assuming that blackjack pays 3 to 2 and not 2 for 1, (BJ payouts weren't listed). As I always remind players it is easy to read about a play here and figure out what to do, but you only have 10 seconds or so when your at the table playing. Having said that, I agree with GFlan first post. In that situation I would have stood on my twenty and took my chances. Note: I am not challenging anyone or saying this is the better play, I am only saying what I probally would have done with only 10 seconds to decide. Like GFlan, I too want to thank everyone for running the numbers.
