This is a high roller tournament with the top two places are paid the most money. Final table - table min: 10 - max: 500 - 14 hands total - surr allowed The table is full with 7 people and it's hand 10th, I was 3rd chip leader and got a chance to bet after the first two chip leaders. Both of the chip leaders bet small, and I, with 730, I bet 300, so that leaves me with 430 left. With this bet of 300, if the whole table win, I would be the 1st chip leader. So I was dealt a pair of 9, 9 and the dealer shows a pretty 6 as a face card. How would a tournament veteran play this hand if you were in my position with such bet? Stay or split? Remember it is hand 10th, only 4 more hands to go and I am the last one to bet on the last hand. What happend is that I split - got 19 on one hand and 15 on the other hand - the dealer turns up a 4 under for a total of 10, hits an ace and wipes out the whole table. If I stay and win, I will just have barely enough above the other two guys to be table leader, but if I split and win, I would have a huge advantage later on especially when I get to bet last on the last hand. For some reasons, I think I made a HUGE mistake by splitting (even when the dealer shows a 6) on this particular hand that costs me 1st place. But then again, just because I didn't get first place doesn't mean my decision is wrong. I just want to know whether I was right or wrong even if I didn't get 1st place. Please give me your opinion as if you don't know the actual outcome. Thanks
Coin Toss With the fact that with a straight win you would take the lead and still have last bet I'm inclined to suggest for you to stand on this hand.If you were to lose two bets and be down to 130 you are for the most part finished.Yet if you were to lose the 300 you would still have 430 left and last bet.I say stand and don't split because for the most part you chance of improving the hand is close to a coin flip as 6 cards hurt your hand .Remember the dealer is still a favorite to make a hand with a 6 up .I hope this helps Joep
Thank you Joep for further confirming my belief that I was wrong. This lesson costs me huge, but then I shouldn't be too depressive, cause at least I learn from this mistake and on the bright side, I managed to make 4th place even with only 130 left. So you're the original Joep? I though I see a nick Joep1 or Joep2 lurking around in this forum.
It seems that splitting up is hard to do!! A lot of the strategy posts recently seem to have involved hands that could be split. It seems like tough decison to make because there are so many different potential outcomes (I guess the number of outcomes for one hand squared!). I have had a pencant recently for trying to calculate these things but I have yet to tackle a split decision and today I don't have enough time. It'd be interesting to see what the actual odds are because the way these things seem to be working out recently I wouldn't be suprised that splitting wasn't the best thing to do (Subtle hint to Ken, Arlalik, S Yama, get your spreadsheets out ) For what it's worth I would have stood on the 9s but I don't know whether that would make you feel any better or worse about it. Cheers Reachy
Wasn't ment to be Darklord, if you split and won both hands this wouldn't even be up for discussion, just goes to show how important the luck factor is. However you didn't win and you want to know if you made the highest percentage play with your split. I really don't believe so, but I'm not trying to make you feel bad. Like I said above if you won both hands this isn't even up for discussion. My reasons for not splitting that hand are: 1. It's late in the round and if you lose both your bankroll is down to nothing and your pretty much out of the running to win. 2. You really don't need to split because you can become BR1 with just the single bet win. 3. You still have 3 hands left to make a move should you lose that hand and you'll still have some bullets left in the gun ($430 in chips). Always remember to think about "What If", your playing tournament blackjack, don't just react to a situation as you would on a regular blackjack table. Instead of tell you what I might have done, let me show you what I did do in a similar situation: In the semifinals of the WSOB II, I was BR3 with 3 hands left (only top two advanced) I was sandwiched between Anthony Curtis and Kenny Einiger, they were BR1 & BR2, not a very funny situation vs. both those "Pros". I made a bigger bet (just trying to move into BR2). Well I got and 11 vs. dealers 9, WOW what a break, not really because if I DD and lost I was gone (starting to sound familiar). After thinking ahead I just hit and caught a small card, hit again with another small card and stayed on 18. The dealer flipped a picture for 19 and I was beat. I ended up save myself. Now I was a down even more with just two hands to play. I split my bankroll knowing I had to either catch a split, DD, or hope for a swing. AC caught a BJ so the swing was gone, I got a picture and two so the split was gone, nothing left but to DD if I had any chance to move into BR2 and all this vs. dealers 10. Well I did DD, but their were 4 players at the table (Viktor was still playing) and I didn't want to drop into 4th place so I DD for less, (enough to take over BR2, but keep BR3 if I lost, thinking ahead could save me about $1,500). The dealer flipped a small card and busted, I just sat there waiting for her to turn over my card and praying it was anything other than a 10 or picture card. BAM! a small card, I did it I moved into BR2 for the last hand and was next to last to bet. I bet to cover AC if we both won or lost, AC caught a hard 17, I got a soft 20, and Kenny caught an 11, the dealer had a picture up. AC had to DD, now I had another decision, DD or stand? I stayed and Kenny just hit and caught a 5 for 16. Now had I DD I would have made a 15 and put myself in a bad situation, I thought staying with my pat hand was the best way for me to play the hand. Several told me I should have DD then. Well the dealer ended up turning another picture over and and that beat Kenny so now I was guaranteed BR2 even if AC got a 4 and only a 4. A "3" for 20 and a push, so Kenny ended up cutting AC for BR2 and I ended up as BR1. Lets recap: Hand #22: I get an 11 and didn't DD, because the loss would have ended any chance to come back. Hand #23: I end up DD on a hard 12 because AC's BJ puts him and Kenny to far ahead with only 1 hand remaining, But remember I only DD for less to keep my BR3 position. Hand #24: I ride out a soft 20 vs. the dealers 10 instead of DD. I played the last three hands different then probably 85% of the players would have, but it was because I thought of the "What If" factor. Now I was lucky also which again goes with what I always preach, you have to have luck if you want to succeed in tournament play, but you also have to also put yourself in the situation to get lucky. The point of this story is always think ahead of the current hand, don't gamble away your chances to win the tournament on one hand if you don't need to. Yea winning that BIG hand late is a great feeling, but just remember how losing that BIG hand feels like and knowing you just gave away any chance to advance or win. Hope this advice helps you in a further tournament.
logic vs emotion Thank you for sharing your experience, TxTourPlayer. Normally, when I am in a similar situations on advancing rounds, I would not split either, but on the final table where first place pays out the most, it's very tempting to get a big lead to sort of guarantee yourself a big win. Well, next time I will try to bet with logic instead of my emotional heart. Also I should mention that had I stayed, I would have won that hand. But that's not the point, the point is that given the situation, I clearly made a wrong decision regardless of whether I did win the hand or not.
Don't get down Once again, had you of won both you were the hero. I don't want you think "you clearly made the wrong decision". Only it didn't workout for you this time. Next time it my be the opposite where you don't split and you should have to win, (I hope not). I alway suggest every player play the way they are comfortable, after all it's your money at risk to either win or lose.
