Okay I have a situation for you, 5 players at the final table you are BR2, how would you play out this final hand? Betting limits: min. $10, max. $200.00, The rules are: surrender allowed, DD dealt face up, DD after splits. Here is the players bankrolls and current bets, the playing order is from the button, (BR3 is first to play). Two - BR4’s (tied). Here is the prize breakdown: 1st = $75,000.00 2nd = $35,000.00 3rd = $10,000.00 4th = $ 5,000.00 5th = $ 2,000.00 BR3 – BR = $740.00, bet = $200.00 Cards are King/9 stands on 19. BR4 – BR = $545.00, bet = $200.00 Cards are 10/Queen splits, catches 4/4 on the 10 and 3/7 on the Queen for 18 & 20. BR4 – BR = $545.00, bets $200.00 Cards are 7/5 DD and catches a 7 for 19. BR1 – BR = $1,130.00, bets = $10.00 Cards are Jack/10, stands on 20. BR2 – BR = $745.00, bets $200.00 Cards: Ace/8 Dealer has 7 up. How do you play this hand if you are BR2? Do you go for the win and possible drop to last or take the lock on tie for 2nd place?
Go for the gold - almost always To me, the 1st place prize is significantly high enough over 2nd place to go go for the gold. Therefore, I'd double my soft 19 against the dealer seven. There are 7 cards (A, 2, 9, 10, J, Q, K) that will give me an 18 or higher so my chances are pretty good. My philosophy is that I don't get to the final table that often so even if mathematically I should go for 2nd, I don't play enough to make those probabilities work out. Besides if I tie for 2nd, I only get $22,500 (total of 2nd and 3rd place divided by 2) - that's less than 1/3 of first. Since I can make over 3 times a 2nd place tie it becomes a no brainer to me especially since my chances for success are good. I'm sure someone will show the statistically that is a mistake but I don't care. Go for the gold - almost always. You just don't get that many opportunities.
Dd Whouldn't the pay for second be $16,333.33 if the dealer has a hard 17or soft 18. In my opionion i agree with Toolman its surely worth it. How often do you have this oppurtunity? Grow some and PUT IT DOWN.:yikes:
I agree... I dont know much, but I think your chances are pretty good for the win doubling A8 v 7. Though youre more likely to make that hand less than helping it by doubling, I'm pretty sure you would still have a better than average chance of winning the hand. Good cards, Rounder21
Double with the A+8 is twice as good. Standing with A+8 yields an average win of $21,711.21 Doubling with A+8 yields an average win of $43,717.94 The problem of BR2 standing with 5 players is manageable because all the players are are at their final bets and totals; only the dealer probabilities need to be calculated. When BR2 doubles down the problem increases 6 fold because of the 6 possible outcomes of BR2: Stiff, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21. Below is the figures for BR2 standing. I hope to get the figures for doubling in my next post. 1st = $75,000 2nd = $35,000 3rd = $10,000 4th = $ 5,000 5th = $ 2,000 Immediately below are the dealer ending totals and their corresponding probabilities. For each player the ending chip count is shown for the corresponding dealer ending total. For BR2 additional information is given: shown is the place finished or tied for and the prize amount won. Player...BkRll..Bet.....Total......<-----------Ending Chips-----------------> Dealer.....................7+?........Bust..... 17.......18........19........20........21 ......................Probability......2623....3686....1378.....0786....0786.....0741 BR3......740....200.....19..........940......940......940......740......540......540 BR4a....545....200......18.........945......945......745......545......345......145 ...................200......20 BR4b....545....400......19.........945......945......945......545......145......145 BR1....1130......10......20.......1140....1140.....1140....1140.....1130....1120 BR2......745....200......19.........945......945......945.....745.......545......545 ...........................................2-4......2-4......2-3.......2..........2.........2.. ........................................16667...16667...22500...35000..35000....35000 Tie for 2-4.........16,667........2623.......4,371.75 Tie for 2-4.........16,667........3686.......6,143.46 Tie for 2-3.........22,500........1378.......3,100.50 ......2nd.............35,000........0786.......2,751.00 ......2nd.............35,000........0786.......2,751.00 ......2nd.............35,000........0741.......2,593.50 ..............................Ave win = sum = 21,711.21 .............................BlueLight
BR2 Doubles Down Here is the calculation showing an average win of $43,717.94 when BR2 doubles. Again the dealer possible totals are given with the ending player chip count for each dealer outcome. Dealer..................................Bust.......17........18.......19........20.......21 BR3.....740....200.....19............940......940......940......740......540......540 BR4a...545....200.....18............945......945......745......545......345......145 ..................200.....18 BR4b...545...400......19............945......945......945......545......145......145 BR1...1130.....10......20..........1140.....1140.....1140....1140....1130.....1120 BR2.....745....400...A+8+DD: Below Dealer totals. Next line shows probability for dealer total BR2 ending totals are shown next with the probability and BR2 chip count Next row shows prize won. If tied then the split of combined prizes. Dealer..........7+?...................Bust........17.......18........19.......20.......21 ..........................................2623......3686....1378.....0786...0786....0741 ........BR2....Stiff......3848.......1145......345......345......345......345......345 .........................................75000....2000....2000.....2000....7500....10000 ........BR2......17......0769.......1145......745.......345......345.....345.......345 ........................................75000....2000......2000.....2000...7500....10000 ........BR2......18......0769.......1145.....1145......745......345......345......345 ........................................75000...75000.....3500....2000.....7500...10000 ........BR2......19......3077.......1145.....1145....1145.......745.....345.......345 ........................................75000....75000..75000....35000...7500....10000 ........BR2......20......0769.......1145.....1145....1145......1145....745.......345 ........................................75000....75000..75000....75000..35000....10000 ........BR2.....21......0769.......1145.....1145....1145......1145...1145.......745 ........................................75000....75000..75000....75000..75000....35000 You have to sum up the cross table product of the dealer and BR2 probabilities multiplied by the corresponding prize amount given. For instance the dealer bust and BR2 stiff with 75000 becomes: .2623 * 3848 * 75000 = 7569.98 There are 36 (6 x 6) such products that have to be calculated and then sumed up. Below is given the sums for each BR2 probability. Stiff......8,532.17 ..17......1,705.10 ..18......3,790.21 ..19.....18,995.55 ..20.......5,155.34 ..21.......5,539.57 Total....43,717.94 If someone can find fault with these calculations then - Errare humanum est .......................BlueLight
Lock for 2nd is only with BR4... If the dealer had a soft 18 you would end up in a two way tie for 2nd, (22,500.00) with BR4 who DD. Now my question was not "What is the Best play, but how would YOU play the hand"? I never stated if the players would have a playoff or just chop the winnings. Lets look at all three possiblities if BR2 stands: 1) Dealer makes 17 or busts, then you ended up in a three way tie with both BR4's. Chopping the prize money for 2nd/3rd/& 4th money = $16,666.67 each Playoff: possibility of coming in 4th for $5,000.00 2) Dealer makes 18, then you end up in a 2 way tie for 2nd with the BR4 who DD, (as mentioned above). Chopping two ways = $22,500.00 each Playoff: possibility of coming in 3rd for $10,000.00 3) Dealer makes 19/20/21, then you win 2nd all by yourself, $35,000.00. Now the possibilities if BR2 DD's: 1) BR2 DD and wins he assures himself 1st place and $75,000.00 2) BR2 DD and pushes, then he assures himself 2nd place. 3) BR2 DD and losses, (lets say BR2 caught a 5 on the DD). Now it depends on the dealers hand. Dealer makes 17/18/19, then you'll come in 5th. Dealer makes 20, then you'll come in 3rd. Dealer makes 21, then you'll come in 2nd. The funny thing here is everybody (so far) has jumped on the win. Let DD and go for the $75,000.00 1st prize money. No one has chosen the lock, yet I have seen so many player play it the safe way in live action. I guess it is the difference in working out problems on paper vs being there live, in the heat of the moment and knowing you can have a sure thing (and possible $35,000.00) or dropping to only $2,000.00 if you miss on that one card. I have found myself in these situations before. I kind of go by the old saying "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush", but the size of the prize money makes the differene to me. As much as I would love to win the $75,000.00 do I throw away a sure $16,666.67 (with a shot at up to $35,000.00) for a chance to only win $2,000.00? I can't say for sure what I would do in this situation. From passed experience I can tell you I have played it both ways (of course the prize money varied in each situation). The higher the prize money the more I believe I would stand, but each situation is different. No one knows for sure until they are in that situation. Look at it this way, a sure $16,666.67 will pay lots of bills and allow you to play in several other tournaments, where $2,000.00 will just pay this tournaments expences (maybe a little extra). I'm not saying I would be right or wrong, only what I might do. Just something to think about.
It's math and the human factor You raised some good points TXtourplayer. The title of this thread is "How would you play this hand?" not "What is the best play". But don't get me wrong, I'm glad the members jumped in with the math to show the "best play". I'm thinking maybe financial considerations, or the human factor, would play a part in one's final decision on this particular problem which adds a little twist to the situation. Food for thought.
Deal or no deal This is the same problem faced by the players on Deal Or No Deal. Do you take the sure money or do you risk everything on something much bigger? Its a question of what in economics is known as marginal utility. It depends on the player's values. For someone with only a few thousand bucks discretionary funds, the first 35K has much more value than the next 40K. For someone who already has lots of money this may not be the case. Also, someone who puts great value on the 1st place finish may decide to risk the 35K.
Very nice comparison with "Deal or no Deal". I figured with all the different math probabilities we are always discussing about different hands, I would throw in a wrinkle most players don't know or forget about. As I posted earlier, just something to think about.
I'd double Anytime I am in the position to win a tournament, I'm going to take the shot. To quote Vince Lombardi, "Winning isn't everything, It's the only thing."
This is the beauty of this question... There is no right or wrong answer, it is based on each and every player out there. Every player has to play their way, some will take the money and run while some will go for the gold. Who is to say who's way is correct. A player has to live with their actions well after the hand is over so play it your way.
It seems to me there are three possible decisions a player could reach - take the money and run go for the gold go for maximum value There may be no right or wrong answer to which of those three you select, but if you go for the third one then you are faced with the tricky business of trying to figure out which play satisfies that goal. I doubt it's something I could do in the time available and under the pressure of the situation, so in that sense I could easily make the 'wrong' choice.
Decisions Made In Advance I learned in a business course in college that the best decisions are made before you're faced with a time constraint for making them. How this applies to a blackjack tournament is to examine the final table paydown before you even start the tournament and decide at what point you would push the deal button, whether you'd just calculate EV, or whether it's first place or bust. If you're faced with that situation you won't have to waste time on this kind of decision. You can focus on what are the best betting and playing decisions to achieve the goal you already decided on.
Percentage for the payouts The percentage for various payouts for stand or double. It should be interesting what other players would do knowing this chart. For standing with soft 19: (Note EV = $21,711) $35,000.........23.13% $22,500.........13.78% $16,667.........63.09% For doubling soft 19: (EV = $43,718) $75,000........54.25% $35,000..........3.59% $10,000..........6.84% $7,500...........6.65% $3,500...........1.06% $2,000.........27.61% With the large EV for doubling I would go for doubling and risk getting only $2,000. I certainly would not be able to figure this out at the table. I don't think I would be assured of at least a tie for 2nd if I stood. But I would realize that doubling would give me a better shot (here it's the only shot) at 1st prize. I would go for the double. In the past where I played timidly I ended up with disapointment. Later at home I would figure out that a more aggresive play had a better percentage payout. .............................BlueLight
BlueLight, You hit it right on the nail head (I like nails ). When in combat, there is not enough time to do these calculations. So when pressed of time, I almost always go for the larger prize if my quick math shows I have a decent shot. Whether one is a conservative player or not, I found that being aggressive on the last hand is the thing to do if I cannot justify a conservative bet.
