How would you play this hand?

Last hand, winner advances to final table. $500 max. $15 min. BJ pays 2-1. no surrender, no insurance.

player 1 has to play first. What should he do?
Player 1 Br. $755 Bet $275, has hard 14. Dealer up-card 7
Player 2 Br. $475 Bet all-in, has hard 15.

Also, what would best bet have been?



tgun

 

Stand

A $200 bet here by BR 1 would cover an all-in win from BR 2. My initial reaction as to how to play the hand is for BR 1 to stand. BR 2 needs to pull a 2 thru 6 and get a full swing. I would love to hear some of the others voice-in with the odds of BR 2 winning the hand and getting a full-swing.

 

Why bet so much

A bet range between 200-265 still gives you both high and low. As it turned out both getting stiffs you cannot allow your opponent to see you bust because he can then stand and hope for a swing with a dealer bust. Now you have the extra chips to double down for the minimum (not exactly a free double but almost) you could improve hand and leaving your opponent with only one choice and that is to hit. I am still learning and welcome the pros. on this forum to join in and correct my thinking.

 

Even though I don't play at all (and rarely post) anymore, I'll take a whack at this one, too.

As usual, I'd have to agree with Monkeysystem - almost. Standing on the dealt cards would be my first choice, but my original bet might have been a shade different. Instead of betting the entire "lead minus a chip" ($275), I would consider something like $260 - allowing a double-for-less that would hide the DD card without affecting the aforementioned benefits. Obviously, after the deal that option had flown right out the window, but the option would have been there.

 

Many responses to teasers, as of late, seem to assume that all DD cards are dealt face down in all tournaments. This is a false assumption. In most tournaments, the DD card is dealt face up and in those tournaments where the DD card is "normally" dealt face down, it is usually dealt face up if the possibility of a bust exists.

In this particular teaser, even if the DD card is dealt face down, doing a DD is not a good idea. There is a 46% (6/13) probability of busting which would mean giving up the high. This opens a door for BR2.

 

Leftnut

Friend,

Can you explain what you mean by, "not playing at all anymore and rarely post". ?

I for one would miss you posting and attending events.:sad:

Wassup?

Creeping Panther

 

Pretty much means what it says. Deb and I had a long, long talk during the long, long ride home from St. Ignace and we agreed that this BJT thing just isn't working out. Two primary reasons - First, other than 3 times a year at Ignace, there's nowhere for us to play. The Club won't let us, plus Blackjack.com and now Bet21 both refuse to give me my winnings so online is no longer an option at all. In the case of Bet21, they still have my original investment, too. The second reason, every bit as applicable, is the unrestrained and mostly undeserved abuse we get (from the "other" BJT forum, not here). We dislike allowing the primary antagonist to reach his apparent goal of driving us from the game, but the fight just isn't worth the trouble to us any more.

We've met SO many wonderful people in the 18 months since I won the online EBJT for the UBT TV seat - our Genesis in the game. Way too many fine folks to list here, and damn near everyone has been wonderful. We thought we had found a competitive hobby that we could enjoy together, maybe make a few bucks here-n-there (or maybe not! :laugh: ), but it just didn't work out that way. It was a horribly tough decision. And we hated making it.

Maybe if something happens to give us playing venues, we'll come back. I'll still check in here at BJT.com once in a while to see what's going on, maybe an occasional post like the teaser response above.

 

Never say Never....

The way that Judy and I look at this is that it's a nice get away. For the price you can hardly beat it.

Yes it is a bit of a drive for us too, but even if you only get there in the Fall, taking your time and enjoying the drive, the beauty of the Fall colors can't be beat! I know those machines don't always payout and sometimes the tables can get you down, but where else can you be entertained as you were by "Bellagio Tom" for such a little price. At least it seemed Deb was doing well at his table.

And don't forget, you are not required to stay at the casino 24/7. There is a lot of great things to see and do up in the UP. Take the time to enjoy what is around you and you won't regret it. Set your limit, and stay within it.

So, never say never and we too hope to see you around again if not only occasionally.

Take Care,
Dan

 

What acturally happened.

Monkey system's first reply was exactly what player 1 did. In this tournament dd cards are dealt face up, that's why this was an interesting hand.

Player 2 dd his hard 15, got a 4, beat dealers 17, and advanced to the final table, which he finished 1st collecting $2,016.

A nice bit of luck.

Thanks for all of the great replies.

tgun

 

What %

The responses that you guys and gals give to the teasers on this forum, are thoughtful and interesting.
My question here then pertains to that large cache of knowledge that you bring to this forum. Given the answers to tguns teaser and to the reults of this particular play, would you sometimes wish that you had not made the correct decision, and how much better (% wise) is that decision?

 

Strategy

FMike I have had some similar thoughts. The more I have learned the less I win. There has been those times when I knew exactly what needed to be done and the person I was up against didn't and when they didn't do what needed to be done I knew I won and that felt good. Me and my wife play most these tournaments together. She just plays for the fun and could care less about chip stacks, proper bet, etc.. She wins more often than me. She is competitive and would love to play against the people she's seen on TV. I'll keep on trying. Me and my wife have been at the same table. She came in first me second. Luck or skill. I got skill so I'll take luck whenever I can get it.

 

Leftnut

Thanks for the reply about your "Maybe" retirement.

Dan makes some very good points and I know he speaks from his experiences which he expressed to me a few years ago.

I have also went through a very dark time stemming from my Hyper involvement in AP play and the lifestyle I fell into. It is not all roses, far from it. I also had to take time off to attempt to get my life back in order.

Like Dan says look at this as just a fun get away for you and the wife. Don't think you have to win to be respected and liked, we all know luck is also a very big part of the game. Try to relax and just have fun. I sense you are a very competitive personality, you must tame that, again just have fun. I know with your mind you could become a very talented BJ AP player and find alot of entertainment in that and if you lose at all it will not be much, and you do not even have to bet big. Of course there is also VP play, .25 and $1.00 machines.

So....why not just relax, with all your friends here, we are not going to judge you or anyone on their wins or losses. I have NEVER won a tourney, not even close, but I sure do enjoy the getaway and the friends I see and make there.

I really do hope to see you again at Ignace, I know I am not alone in that hope.

Creeping Panther

 

Yes, Dan made some excellent points (as usual), but I think he misunderstood the reasons. It isn't because we had such a miserable weekend at St. Ignace, although we did get crushed at the VP and endured terribly bad beats at the tournament tables. Other than That Guy's unwarranted and unchecked abuse in the other forum, it really is all about the lack of anywhere to play the game within a reasonable distance, and online is not an option after the blackjack.com and Bet21 problems.

As far as the St. Ignace event, after all those years in the other game, I cannot shake the tendency to treat a tournament as a Business Trip. If I traveled somewhere and brought bowling balls, it wasn't a vacation - period.
Wish I could shake it, but I can't. And Deb is the same way.

CP, you should play poker, because you read me quite well re: competitive personality. :laugh:
One doesn't survive over 25 years of scratch tournament bowling without that little feature. The difference in the games is that I could find those tournaments almost anytime I had a notion to lace up the shoes.

 

leftnut

off the thread topic maybe - but a response to what you have posted -

I can't speak to Bet21 - or Blackjack.com - but I have had no trouble cashing out from UltimateBet - they have been totally responsive to every withdrawal - and I have made quite a few - I have kept all of them under $3,000 - so no hassles with sending ID, etc. - and always get the money within 10 days - by check - set up an UB acount - and you can play and not have to deal with the Bet21 hassles - same games - but the money is handled by UB, which actually pays out - not Bet21 -

also - don't get discouraged about few tourneys or poor results - I live in Yuma - and - don't get in tourneys every week - but - that just makes the occassional trip to play more fun - and - we all go through losing streaks - tbj is 90% luck - but if you play for the long term - the wins will come -

keep playing and posting

 

If I can butt in here for a moment. I think your problem, LeftNut, is that you seem to treat BJTs as a money making opportunity. You weigh the cost of travel, hotel, food, etc. and try to justify it by calling it a "Business Trip". That, at least, is what I read from your last and some prior posts.

There are only a very few select people who make a net profit from attending BJTs and it's related gaming "requirement". Most of those travel a lot to attend events in various parts of the country so their time investment is substantial. And their profits - well, let's just say I doubt any of them make a living exclusively on BJTs.

So where does that leave us? BJTs must be treated as a hobby, a pastime if you will. If you insist on treating it as a "Business" then you are now, and will continue to be, very disappointed.

Unfortunately, you live in a "near BJT desert" as do most of us. I suggest making a trip or two to Las Vegas, Tunica, etc to get a feel for the joy of playing tournaments - not as "Business Trips". It's a hobby - nothing more and nothing less. So enjoy it and forget about that "Business" thing. If you can make a few bucks all the better - but enjoyment should be your priority. If you are smart enough, and I think you are, your net cost of those trips will probably be 10% to 20% of what it costs the average "gambler" to make the same trip(s) - over the long haul.

As for online correspondence - stay away from the "dark side". It's really that simple.

 

leftnut

a few more comments - following up on toolman's -

I do have a net profit from tbj play - certainly not getting rich off of it, not even close - but - that comes from holding down expenses as much as from winning - I play well within my bankroll - and my travel to play is generally where I can get to within a few hours drive - and tourneys played when I was traveling to the Laughlin area on business - and in Vegas when I was going there anyway with friends/family - and keeping both costs and entry fees within a range I can easily afford - if I was flying cross-country and paying $1,000 or $1,500 to enter tourneys on a regular basis - I probably would have gone bankrupt quickly - my view of tbj - if you work within your bankroll, keep travel expenses modest - and get in as many tourneys as possible when you do travel - (play local minis in Vegas - not just the big ones), and look for positive ev - and play with a little skill - you might not make big money - but - you can have a lot of fun and maybe make a small profit - I don't highroll to get tourney invites - or put my money at risk that way - I stick to open tourneys with affordable buy-ins - but - every dollar I get ahead feels very satisfying - and gives me a little bigger bankroll to play on - and - I have used some of that profit for a little fun - a few trips to tourneys I would not have played if I couldn't have covered the costs out of winnings

second - if someone, to be left nameless, bugs you on-line with his posts - just ignore him - you don't have to carry on fights endlessly - just make your posts and let him make a fool out of himself with his responses - don't try to argue an irrational person into agreeing with your rational positions and views - just let him indulge his little warpped fantasies with himself - at least some of us will appreciate your posts

finally - UltimateBet is a viable option for on-line play - they do pay off promptly - and you can win money there - I have made a very nice return on investment on UB - again - play well within your bankroll as far as entry fees - I like to have about 25 to 50 times the entry fee in my bankroll to enter an on-line tourney - so I can withstand bad losing streaks - and they happen frequently - but - again - you can grind out small but consistent winnings over the long run - and have fun - if you have a problem depositing - just set up an account on UB - and work out a deal with someone who plays on UB to transfer some funds to you -

tbj is too much fun just to give it up - keep with it

 

Toolman and RKuczek and the others who have contacted me by PM and email - thank you. I had no idea that it made a gnat's ass bit of difference to anyone if Deb and I stayed in the TBJ community or not. That's why we didn't say anything until Panther called me out about an inadvertent comment that I posted. Guess I was wrong. Thank you all.

The 2 original problems are still present - That Guy over There who, so I heard today, apparently fired another unprovoked cheapshot. Y'all are right and we are ignoring his yammering. And there's also the lack of anyplace to play / practice / stay sharp. Why bother staying with a game that you can't play?

We'll think about it. Thanks again to those who spoke up, some with very long sessions at their keyboards. Amazing.

 

Mike, ain't you sorry that you asked?

Left Nut, collectively the group of bjts.com said it all. Stick around, there is plenty to choose from to find some satisfaction, you just have to put up, or ignore some posts here and there, lol (including this one, for reasons of being too boring and /or too technical).

Mike next time watch out what you asking about. Percentages? Sure!

BR1 makes a bet that he can lose if BR2 pushes but locks him in if won; and BR2’s win when BR1 pushes advances BR2. BR1 acts first and has 14 vs. dealer’s 7, and BR2’s 15. Let’s assume that BR2 plays optimally. We have two variants of BR1’s play to compare: standing on 14, and hitting it once.
BR2 has to play to win while his opponent pushes or loses.
When BR1 stands on 14 the minimum that beats him is the dealer 17, so BR1 has to hit to at least 18. This is easy calculated and BR1 chances look pretty at 81.05%.
When BR1 hits his 14 he ends up having totals of 15 through 21 one-thirteenth each (7.7%), and busting six-thirteen’s. BR2 optimal play is to hit to seventeen when BR1 busted, hit to 18 when BR1 finished 15 to 17, and hitting one point higher when BR1 hand was 18 or better.
With this play, it turns out that BR1 chances are 81.76%. This means that optimal play for BR1 is to hit that 14.
Yeah, another play that is better by less than one percent.
This small advantage is a common occurrence when we have to find out at what point stop hitting to achieve best result. There will be always a point (or number) that just barely gets us a better return than one next to it. Effectiveness of such play over other options is minimal but is symptomatic of blackjack tournament edge in general, which is gained over many small actions.
Tgun described situation presents another example of options resulting in small differences. Let’s assume that BR1 had hit and busted, BR2 is faced with decision to hit or stand on his 15. He simply needs to win his hand; push does him no good. Basic strategy is often a good way to play -but not always. Standing on 15 wins 26.19% of the times, hitting to 16 wins 28.43%, hitting to 17 wins 28.44%, and hitting to 18 wins 28.30%. It is great to know it but don’t sweat it, it would really make difference for consistent players playing thousands of tournaments.

There is yet another interesting aspect of this play. Sure, BR1 should bet enough to cover BR2 winning all-in, and no more to retain the option to minimum double down (if dd card is dealt face down) and still have more money left if that double bet is lost and BR2 pushes.
But can you find a better bet, with a narrower range, and why?

S. Yama