How would you play this

While covering the last 5 hands of the Hilton MD3 Sept.Tournament for this web site this hand came up between BR 1 & BR 2 .I will not give you the actual results you will have to wait until Kenny puts in up on this site.It was the last hand and BR 3 was far behind. Br 2 bet 2500 and held back 9000 Br 1 acting after BR 2 also bet 2500 and held back 11550.Br 2 was dealt A-6 Dealers up card was a 10 he hit and caught a 3 for 20 Br 1 had A-A what should BR 1 do with his A-A? Unlike S.Yama who offered dinner at the Hilton Buffet for the correst answer.I will offer dinner at Peter Lugers in N.Y.City the world's most famous steak resturant.Airfare not included ( LOL ) top that YAMA.........

 

I would...

Just hit the pair of aces.

 

Seems like BR2 should have doubled as it would be his only chance to win. And when BR2 drew to a 20 it then forced BR1 to go for a win or take the low and hope the dealer gets a 20 or 21.

 

No steak dinner for pokernut

The question was what should BR1 do with his 2 aces.BR 2 has already acted but if BR 2 would have doubled as you suggested and wound up with a stiff BR 1 just splits his aces and locks out BR 2....and BR 1 starts counting $20,000 .With the A-6 BR 2 is more than a 2 to 1 to end up with a stiff

 

Split

He should split the A's. The best chance to win or push with a pair of aces is to split.

 

Disaree

If he splits and the dealer makes twenty and BR1 doesn't catch at least one ten or nine he gives the tournament away. If he just hits he can make a twenty or twenty-one and lock up the tourney or by dealer pushing BR2 wins without winning the last hand by $50.

If I get beat I get beat, but how would you feel if you split and catch 7 and 8 on the aces and the dealer flips a picture for twenty and because of your split you lose. I don't know about you, but I would be sick.

 

I am always sick when I loose on a last hand. But, even if you had to win, the best play is to split the aces. In this case, since winning on one and loosing on the other is ok; splitting is by far the best decision.

 

Maybe

I am not saying your wrong, only I would just hit the Aces in that situation if I am BR1.

 

two aces

whats the count

 

Count?

Nobody here counts, this is just tournament play. Casinos don't like counters I hear so none of us would ever do anything like that...LOL.

 

I'm not as smart as you guys, but I would not split the aces.

 

What?

I see all your percentages, but what is your anwser...LOL.
You also didn't account for if the dealer has twenty and pushes BR1, so BR2 wins by $50 on the push reguardless what BR2 makes (if they don't split.)

 

OK, I'll give it a try

BR1 still has the high and the low.
I'm going to hit the aces to 19...if I bust out I still have the low. I'm just trying to avoid a swing. I push a dealer 19 which is OK, I still win. With a dealer 20, BR2 pushes and I win. Dealer 21, we both lose and I win.

I think I'm going to have to take a course in statistics!

 

thanks for offer

Actually that's very comlicated situation. First of all we have to find out the best way of playing "how to avoid swing" when we don't split, then we have to compare that probability with probability of avoiding swing when we split.
Without going thru details (calculations are available upon request) based on my study I can tell that the best way "to avoid win-lose swing" by just hitting is to hit 'til Hard 15 or Soft 18.
Let's consider a slightly weeker way of playing (dealer's way - hit 'til hard 17 or soft 18)
Here's the table of probabilities for soft 12:

17 18 19 20 21 Tolal
soft12 8.29 16.25 16.25 16.25 16.25 73.29
T 12.07 12.07 12.07 37.07 3.74 77.02

Now it's easy to calculate BR1's probability to avoid swing.
We need the TOTAL of:
23% x 73.3%=16.85% Dealer busts, BR1 does not
12% x 73.3% = 8.8% Dealer makes hard 17, BR1 makes a hand
12% x 65% = 7.8% Dealer makes 18(hard or soft), BR1 makes 18 or better
12% x 48.8%= 5.85% Dealer makes 19(hard or soft), BR1 makes 19 or better
40.8% x 100% = 40.8% Dealer makes 20 or 21, BR1 is OK 100% of the time

Finally our total is 80.1%. Actually it would be better to hit 'til hard 15 instead of hard 17, but even this slighly weeker way of playing may be good enough to overcome our chances of splitting.

Let's consider now our chances of splitting:

Dealer busts 23% we're OK 100% of the time:
23% x 100% = 23%

Dealer makes 17: we need both hands 17 or at least one hand 18 or better
1/13x1/13 + (1- 6/13 x 6/13)=1/169 + 133/169 = 134/169
12% x 134/169 = 9.5%

Dealer makes 18: we need both hands 18 or at least one hand 19 or better
1/169 + (1- 7/13 x 7/13) = 121/169
12% x 121/169 = 8.6%

Dealer makes 19: we need both hands 19 or at least one hand 20 or better
1/169 + (1 - 8/13 x 8/13) = 106/169
12% x 106/169 = 7.5%

Dealer makes 20: we need at least one hand 20 or better
1 - 8/13 x 8/13 = 105/169
37% x 105/169 = 23%

Dealer makes 21: we're OK 100% of the time.
4% x 100% = 4%

Finally: 23 + 9.5 + 8.6 + 7.5 + 23 + 4 = 75.6%
As you can see, HIT is much better than SPLIT.
Very interesting question, Joep, thank you.
I'll be in NY City somewhere around Christmas time looking forward to have a dinner with you LOL.
Dinner for two in Vegas is acceptable as well.

Best regards.

 

Good numbers

Good tries swog, txt, Moses, Rhoda and gflan.
As usual great work tirle_bj. I wouldn’t expect anything less from you.

Whether 4.5% difference is better, barely better, or much better play is a subjective call.

PS
Darn, Joep offered the steak restaurant only to discourage me, knowing that I am vegetarian.
Airfare not included? I wouldn’t mind driving you to NYC, but who would be desperate enough to take me on it?

S. Yama

 

Quickest Way to Best Play

Joep...

Forget about all the probabilities.... to make a "table decision", the following should have been considered...
1) BR2 has already played and with the bet stated, his maximum total will be 14,000 assuming a win...
2) BR1 will have 14,050 if he only PUSHES.. he does not have to win..

Decision...
What is most probable play to get a push?

Hitting 2.... or splitting and drawing one 10 out of the two hands..

Seems to me that splitting is the obvious play since a push will Push you over the top... pun intended.

Why make it more complicated than it is...

 

Basic strategy was invented for a purpose. Br 1 only needs to break even to win to stay fifty dollars ahead of BR 2. I would think that the better odds would be to split hoping that he or she will make at least one of the two hands. The odds to make or push the hand with a 12 can't be better. If it was we would all celebrate stiff hands.

 

I hate splitting Aces!

I have horrible luck splitting Aces, maybe that is why I would just hit them.

 

Hey TX

Don't forget you can surrender if you have such bad luck