I keep thinking I've seen it all...

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by TedinNaples, Apr 18, 2007.

  1. TedinNaples

    TedinNaples New Member

    and then another doozy of a hand happens. Check this out:
    Final hand of round 1 -- $50 tournament:

    I bet first.. Everyone has Secret bet but me. 3 advance:
    BR2 Me - 30,000 - bet 12,000
    BR4 - 23,000 - bet 3,000 - does not use Secret bet
    BR3 - 23,500 - bet 3,000 - does not use Secret bet
    BR1 - 41,750 - bet 500 - does not use Secret bet

    I bet 12,000, to leave me the surrender down to 24,000, and to top BR1 if he loses or surrenders. I didn't want to risk covering all-in bets by BR3 and BR4, because that would not give me the low, and I wouldn't know the other player bets. Little did I know that no one would use their Secret bets!

    Cards:
    Me: 20
    BR4: 13
    BR3: 16
    BR1: 12
    Dealer: 8
    What would you do? With a 20, and the other players' bets being visible, the only way I can lose is if the dealer gets to 21, a 7% chance. If I surrender to 24,000, both BR4 and BR3 have to beat the dealer. They could both stand and the dealer could bust, a 24% chance. Little did I realize that I was playing against either a newbie or an idiot. When BR4 decided to stand with his 13, his only chance of winning was for the dealer to get to 21. Why didn't he hit? And why didn't he use his Secret bet? Had the players used their Secret bets, I would have assumed they went all in and I probably would have surrendered. And I seriously doubt that not using one's Secret bet on the final hand is part of a great strategy.
    So with BR4 standing, BR3 stood as well, locking in his advancing to the next table.
    BR1 decides to take a card and gets an 8. The dealer turns over a 5 to go with her 8, and for that split second before the next card is dealt, I thank BR1 for pulling that 8. So what does the dealer draw next? Yep...another 8.
    Man, this game can be so frustrating!
     
  2. fgk42

    fgk42 New Member

    Bad beat - yup or....maybe someone knew an algorithm that you didn't :confused:

    Dealer drawing to 17 = 12.86%, dealer drawing to 18 = 35.93%, dealer drawing to 19 = 12.86%, dealer drawing to 20 = 6.94%, dealer drawing to 21 = 6.94%.

    Playing and winning on Bet21.com – priceless. But don’t worry they accept Master Card. :cool:
     
  3. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Mortice

    BR4 is key to this hand in so many ways. You are in a tough spot betting first especially if SBs are used. Since BR4 decided not to use his SB BR3 didn't need to use his either and simply correlates. With such small bets out BR1 just needs to sit back and watch; he's safe.

    Clearly BR4 bet incorrectly and should have, in my opinion, gone all-in. I'm undecided as to whether he should have used his SB or not, probably not since if he wins his max bet and survives it'd be nice to still have the SB. I don't think using it would add anything to his play at this point. BR3 could have followed suit all-in or bet small to take the low and cover things like surrenders from BR4 and BR2 with options to DD etc, and maybe used his SB. I'd probably go all-in myself. BR1 now has some thinking to do since he could theoretically go out if he loses or pushes and everybody else wins.

    BR4 obviously thought his best chance was to take the low where he could get it and since you offered it to him he took it. When BRL on an elimination hand that's not the best thing for them to do, especially in the open. It wouldn't have been so bad if he'd used his SB.

    Anyway his bad play was theoretically good for you and I think you could call it a bad beat that you lost. However, if I were you, I would pray that they continue to play that way whenever you meet them.

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  4. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Imbecile

    I've just been reminded via PM that this was the last hand and so there is no reason why anybody shouldn't use their SB. I was playing it like an elimination hand. What an idiot :D !

    Cheers

    Reachy
     

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