The following question is more of a general playing strategy, which I am sure every tournament player has run into. Let's assume the following situation, which I've been in many times: There are 14 hands, 2 advance, I am the table chip leader (not by much, let's say less than half max bet compared to all players' chips), and the table has 7 players. This means that after the chip count, which happens after hand 11th, I would be the 3rd one to bet on 12th hand, 2nd to bet on the 13th hand. Currently, what I usually do in this situation to protect my lead is that I corrolate my bet with the players who bet before me only to let other players who bet after me to catch up. However, If I bet big, I'll let the 2 players who bet before me to have a chance to catch up to me if there is a lose-lose situation. So The question here is that since I am the chip leader, the best I can do to protect my lead after the 11th hand is to corrolate the players that bet before me, but I can't see what the other players who get to bet after me, so what is the best bet I can do to protect my lead? Corrolate the 2 players before me (my current strategy) or bet small or bet somewhere in the middle or bet big? (It's worth noting that in my experience players seem to bet big after the 11th hand to be the chip leader) In other words, I am curious to know what would a veteran BJ tournament player likely to bet given the situation I just discussed. English is my second language, so I hope my explanation is not too confusing. I think that discussing playing strategies like this is more beneficial compared to specific scenarios in the long run because strategies like this are more often encountered on a tournament table.
no good resolution there really is no way to correlate bets, if most of the players bet after you - possibilities - having watched how they tend to bet on past hands - use their last hand bets as a guide - or - my tendency probably would be to bet low - a minimum bet - let them take the risks - alternative - bet your lead - I would tend to decide which way to go - based on how the cards had been running - if they have been favoring the players - I would either bet my lead or try to correlate with past bets - maybe going on the high side - if cards have been favoring the dealer - then with a minumum bet - if in doubt - bet low -
First bet on the last hand... Knowing I was the first to bet on the last hand and only being up by less than 1/2 a max bet, I would bet my lead over BR2 with 3 hands to go. Being under the gun on the last hand with 6 other players that can catch and pass you on just one hand is to many to just lay back with the low. I would work on getting over a max bet lead over the table prior to the final hand if you can. Sitting on your low is fine with just 1 or maybe 2 other players at the table, but 6 is way to many to be playing the low. With any luck you could hit a couple of hands and lock the rest out by the final hand.
I find these situations challenging also Although my experience is very limited compared to almost every other member of this forum I also find the middle betting positions more confusing than most. Which way do you turn? You can bet to maintain a lead over those on your right but of course those on your left can bet to take the lead from you. If I'm behind to those on my left what I have been doing is using Ken's rule of 2,4 and 5 coupled with taking the high on those on my right, whichever is the biggest bet. If taking the high over the right is greater than Ken's 245 rule over your nearest competitor on the left then I'm happy with that. If it's not then I will try and use the biggest bet I can according to the 245 rule taking into account other factors such as relative BRs, final hand postion, aggressiveness of other players etc. I'm starting to favour the bigger rather than smaller bet now because it seems to give you more options. I also think that it can lead to more betting mistakes from your competitors as it seems to make the calculations harder (I certainly seem to make more mistakes when I see a big bet in front of me!!). I also don't like the idea of reliquishing my lead without a bit of a fight - if you want the lead then you are going to have to bet big to take it!! Of course they could take the low and hope that the dealer wins then it's all out of the window but at least I didn't lose my lead with a wimper! If I had a lead over someone who bets after me I tend to use the "Max bet - 1/2 difference between BR1 and BR2" rule to cover a single max bet win with options to cover a DD. I also wonder whether this creates a level of confusion with the competitors because they can see that a max bet win can't take the lead so is it worth making a max bet when the low is probably the best chance they have. But then of course a W:W situation would put them further behind so should they bet big or corrolate to keep up with me and hope for a swing. This is really just stream of consciousness as I have been having the same thoughts as Darklord about what to do when you have to act in the middle especially when things are tight or you have a slight lead. Your comments on these ideas would be greatly appreciated. Cheers Reachy
Toward the last few hands when players tend to bet big, betting my lead over br2 generally does not seem like a good idea because if I only lead br2 by a few minimum bets and br2 bets small, then betting my lead over br2 would give other 5 players a chance to catch up and it's likely, I think, that at least 1 or 2 out of 5 players will catch up with a good hand. So late in the round with a full table especially when the lead is small, I think I prefer a big bet over a small bet; perhaps a mid size bet to make it difficult for players to decide whether to take the high or the low. If they decide take the low and bet small, sometimes it is not enough to catch up, but if they take the high, then they have to bet big to cover mid size bet. Because if you either bet min or max, you give players a clear path to see whether to take the high or the low. However, if you bet something in the middle mixing in different chip colors, it will more likely throw some players off balance and make an incorrect bet. But this is just my opinion and not proven. If anyone has a "better" strategy, please share. Mathematically, I don't think there is a "best" bet to protect your lead from the people from your left. The best you can do is to make educated prediction based on players's bet pattern or bet behavior (betting big toward the last 3 hands) added with some mind tricks (mixing chip color, for example) and some logics (bet enough to protect your lead from people to the right, for example) and you have a good bet.
this is 'situational' this is a very 'situational' problem - you said 'less than a 1/2 max bet lead' - is that over one player with everyone else far behind? - or is everyone else packed in close behind you? - does the tournament allow surrender? that is really important I think - are the players betting before you the closest to you in chip count? - or the lowest? - did they bet big or small? - what is your total chip count relative to the max bet - are you and the other players sitting on chip counts of 5 or 6 times max bets - or do you have 2 times max bet in chips? - is the game single deck - with a shuffle before every deal? or a CSM? - or from a shoe? - if from a shoe - have the cards been streaking for the last couple of hands? for the players or for the dealer? - all these factors can affect your decision - thinking and rethinking - if the players on right went big - and can catch you with one bet - I would cover them - bet just enough to retain a lead if everyone wins - otherwise - maybe a moderate bet - about equal to the lead - if the players in front of me went small - I would tend to go small as well - I am the chip leader - the other players need to take the risk and put out big bets - risking falling far behind if they lose - I want to maintain a competitive chip total - let them risk their chips to catch me - and if one does - then I will still have the chips to go big in the next to last hand - they will at worst still be within a max bet - it all depends on how I would 'risk assess' the particular situation - if surrender is available - I would tend to bet a little larger - but it would be dependent on each individual situation - no general rule - except let the other players take the risk - and maintain a competitive chip total - that would push me towards the smaller bets
