Last hand of round. One advance to final round. Min bet $25... max $500. BJs pay 2-1 and surrender allowed. I was lucky enough to be BR1 w $1500 in chips. BR 2 had $500. I had no doubt that he would make a max all in bet of$500. BR1 BR $1,500 bet $500 cards: 10,4 BR2 BR $500 Bet $500 10,7 Things were looking great until the dealer flipped over an Ace and asked who wanted ins. BR2 did not have $ for insurance.(wout that ace i could have surrendered my 14 and kept $1,250 to br2s best case scenario ofwin for total if $1,000) now my position wasn't as strong. If I didn't buy insurance and lost my hand and br2 won his we would be tied for first...both having )1,000. If I insured my hand and dealer had a BJ...the game would end in my favor. However..,if I bought insurance...and dealer did not have a BJ....and if br2 won his hand and I lost....I would have given up what looked like a sure win! What was my best choice? Should I have bet less than $500? My thought behind the $500 was "what if he gets a BJ?(if that had happened I would have hoped for a hand that I could double or split to avoid tie.) I went through several scenarios in my head...but dealer showing an ace up Wasn't one if them (another good lesson). No doubt there r other choices I could have made.,,,and I hope someone or several someone's will point them out to me. Thx in advance! So....what do the pros think my bet should have been? And should I have purchased insurance? I'll tell u the results after I hear from others about what I should or could have done better. Ps. I feel like a big kid now..,posting here instead if in the newbie section
Miscalculation If BR2 won a 2:1 BJ he would finish with $1500, not $2000. So you could have bet the min. In general, though, if you have a lock against everything except a BJ, it is better to take that lock and be a 95% favourite than to attempt to cover the BJ if that risks a swing. (Since there is a greater chance of the swing than of the BJ.) E.g., if your BR had been $1050, better to bet $25 than $475.
In the situation you found yourself in, there is nothing to be gained by taking insurance - If the dealer has a BJ then you win. If not, then you can surrender as you planned, and you win.
thanks! I appreciate replies....seems like such a simple game...but there is actually much to think about (and always easier to think about without the pressure of only 30 seconds to decide). Sounds like insurance wasn't the correct choice....however...it turned out ok in this case. Dealer had a face under his ace. Generally I have been operating under the assumption that if in doubt, a bigger bet is probably a better choice than a min. one. Obviously that is too general of a statement to apply in each case. I'll keep practicing.....doing quick calcs in short time should become easier. thanks!~
