This hand comes from this past weekend's final table at the Mirage (part of the $1 million Mirage/Bellagio blackjack tournament). The rules were as follows: 2 decks cards dealt face up double down on any two double after splitting minimum bet 100, must bet in multiples of 100, no max bet dealer stands on soft 17 no surrender usual pair splitting rules Prize money was $125k/ $60k / $30k / $20k / $15k but only three players were left with two hands to go in the round. On the next to last hand, I was the short stack with $31k, betting first. The other two players were both in the range of about $54k to $61k, so I bet $30.5k, keeping a $500 chip just in case someone decided to risk all of their chips at some point. The bigger stack bet next, and bet small ($500 I think). So did the other guy. That essentially shows that these guys were not top notch tournament players. The big stack should have bet some of his lead over the other big stack to keep ahead of me, and the second place stack should have gone for the lead. I win my hand, setting up the final round hand: Betting first is a belligerent drunk guy who has managed to piss off all the other players at the table with his antics. He does seem to be aware of what others are doing, and hasn't really played that badly. He bets half of his chips (I don't recall his chip total exactly, but $54k is close enough). I have $61.5k in chips which remarkably enough is the exact same total as the other player who will bet after me. He is a conservative looking Indian fellow (I later learn he is a doctor). So, how should I have played this? While this is a top heavy prize fund, the difference between 2nd place and 3rd place is not negligible. It is also worth pointing out that it is not possible for either of the chip leaders here to bet exactly half of their chips because of the multiple of 100 requirement.
Half your Bankroll minus a chip... KC: Seems fairly easy, for me anyway. You were BR1 with a lead of approximately $7,500. Your Indian friend was tied with you. If I had been in your situation, I would have split my bankroll and bet half of it, minus a chip. You still would have had more chips left behind then Mr. Belligerent at BR2, and if you both win your hands you win, unless he's smart enough to know that he needs to get more money on the felt to beat you if you both have good hands. In the event he doubles or splits, you can do the same to beat him. Again, if you both win your hand, you beat him. If you both lose your hand, you beat him with the "chip" you have left. Not sure what your Indian friend did, but if I were him, I would have split my bankroll and kept "2" chips behind, in the event that you split your bankroll and kept half your bankroll plus "one" chip... Let's hear from others. Also. please let us all know how this worked out KC. My congratulations on making it to the Top 3 in the Finals! Good job!! Hopefully you won the whole thing. Skipper :celebrate
Question Back At You When an opponent has position on you like the Indian doctor did your assessment of their skill level and aggression level is important in your betting and playing decisions. You've already indicated that he's not a top notch tournament player. What was his aggression level? His tiny bet on the second-last hand is a clue, but what did his play before that indicate to you? In a no limit tournament many players go all in on the last hand as a rule. Dreamer's bet of 30.7K is good. If the Indian doctor was a mediocre player AND seemed like a tight, timid player to you he might not go all in and then you can cover whatever he bets with your double down. If he seemed like he might be aggressive and go all in you won't be able to cover him with a double down on your 30.7K bet but you'll have first low. Dreamer's bet gives you a high-low correlation with position over the drunk, which is a nice spot to be in. And unless the Indian doctor exactly matches your bet you'll either have the high or the low against him. If you have to cover a double down by drunk and the dealer has a high card you can double for less by a chip less, to try and fool the Indian doctor into doubling for full and leaving you with the low if he doubles after you. Unfortunately he might not double at all, but that's the problem you face when an opponent has position.
More On Indian Doctor Plus Further Questions The Indian doctor had mostly been betting small during the round. Suppose that we look at the Dreamer suggestion of my betting just under half of my chips. What is the Indian doctor's best option if I do that? What do we think the Indian doctor will do if I take that approach? My guess was that the Indian doctor would simply match my bet. He could also opt to bet all his chips to lock in the high, bet slightly less than I do to go for the low but still have the option to double or split to go for the high, bet slightly more than I do to temporarily take the high but tempt others to double down to take it away. I'll be traveling today, and might not be able to contribute further to this thread for a couple of days.
With your Indian doctor being a timid/tight player I'd be tempted to bet less than half my bankroll, but enough to cover drunk's double down with your own. With a bet of 23.3K you force the doctor to not be able to cover the drunk if he wants to bet smaller than you. It's always good to make a marginal player do something he doesn't like. If I were the Indian doctor and you bet Dreamer's bet I'd bet a chip less than you did. Then I'd double for less for two chips if my chance of winning that were better than your chance of losing your single bet. If I were in your position I would go for the first place prize and not worry about preserving the second place position The reason for that is because there are no life changing amounts of money out there (for me.)
Prize Money not Life Changing For me, it was appropriate to be using EV as my criterion in this tournament. I had already been having a wonderful year before this Vegas trip, and then won an invitational holdem tournament the previous week at MGM for $200k at the beginning of the Vegas trip.
last hand I chose the 30.7k bet as dreamer. Hope for no swing by the drunk & use your skill to outplay the doctor. Happy Holidays!
Final Results?? KC: Dying to hear about the final outcome and results, including what the Doctor bet, etc... Skipper
What Actually Happened I agree that the suggestion that I bet something like just under half of my chips is the obvious play. I then considered what the response to that bet might be. I felt that by far the most likely response of the Indian doctor would be to just match my bet. I didn't think he would be tricky/clever enough to bet slightly less. I wasn't real thrilled with this situation. Yes, we would be putting the drunk in a very difficult situation, almost forcing him to double down on a lot of different hands to give himself much of a chance. But, I didn't like the fact that I would be forced to act before the Indian doctor. So, I chose to push all-in instead, expecting that the Indian doctor would be content to simply take the low by matching the drunk's bet. I guess I gave him too much credit because instead he chose to match my all-in bet. We both won our bets, setting up a one hand playoff using secret bets. We both bet the $100 minimum. He won and I lost, so I had to settle for $60k for second place.
Congrats... KC: Not a bad payday! In fact, it was a VERY NICE payday!! Congratulations KC and continued success in the future... Skipper :celebrate
nice situation Kelly and others, This is very interesting case, however the difference in value for various bets and playing is not as significant as some may have expected. To talk about it with clear understanding we should change/substitute bankrolls and bet limits with rounded even numbers, ones that will not change merrit of the situation. Let’s assume that betting is 1K minimum and there is no limits for max bets. BR3 bankroll is 90K and he bets 45K, we, as BR1A, have bankroll of 100K, so does BR1B. There are three basisc types of bets we can make as BR1A – minimum bet, maximum bet (all in), and a bet that covers BR3 winning full double by our double but it is smaller than half of our bankroll. For better than average players we would achieve results somewhere around these numbers: Bet .................1st Place.............2nd Place..........3rd Place...........Value Minimum............42%...................28%...............30%.................79K Maximum...........47%...................24%................29%................82K 41K to 49K........44%-50%............40%-48%...........7%-9%...........85K-92K The third type of betting is slightly better than the other two and additionaly it offers a chance for improvements by opponents making betting/playing mistakes, while the first two leave them with mostly basic strategy plays except when BR3 tries to best BR1B, or the latter tries to correlate with BR3. Many players have a tendency to match maximum bets but they often will make other bets than ours if we (as BR1A) bet a minimum or make a mid-range bet. Usually first smallest possible bet that our doubling covers BR3’s doubling (in our case 41K) would be better than betting a chip less than half of the bankroll (49K), as it entice BR1B to make bet of 42K to 49K -- which is more benefitial to us than us betting 49K and BR1B’s betting 41K to 48K. While analyzing possible results for min/max bet is relatively easy, for example min bet can be described as: BR3 ....BR1B.........BR1A........result P/L.......L...............any..........1st P/L.......P...............W............1st P/L.......P...............P.............Tie 1st P/L.......P...............L.............2nd P/L.......W..............any..........2nd W.........L...............any..........2nd W.........P...............W............2nd W.........P...............P.............Tie 2nd W.........P...............L.............3rd W........W...............any..........3rd There would be a hundred possible situations for a mid-range bet because players’ doubles and blackjacks would effects final placement. S. Yama
