Hey Joep, Thanks for the strategy post. Lets take the same thing but with a different twist ok? Lets assume 50 min and 500 max bet. 6 deck shoe (infinite possibilities) Final hand of a tournament 2 players left one advances Br 1 bets first has 327.50 Br 2 bets second and has 252.50 No cards dealt at this time. So what is the definitive bet here?
I saw it first... I guess you mean BR1 fgk? I know you want to hear what the top players have to say but I'm here now... I would bet 305 which would cover DD and BJ by BR2. Your lead isn't that big, in fact it's less than 1/3 of the biggest bet than BR2 can make so you can't bet 2X your lead to cover a max bet win with a surrender to the low option. If I were BR2 I would probably take the low betting 70 leaving 282.50 which means that BR1 can't surrender back to the low. Unless you bet 305 BR2 can decide to cover either the high or the low. With 305 BR2 has to either opt for the low or hope for a swing. The other bet that I would consider is the 145 (2x lead - a chip) but I would be concerned that I couldn't cover the high. If BR2 is likely to bet the max then 70 is as good as 145 if you're taking the low road but 145 gives them more of an opportunity to make a betting error (I think!) I must admit I realise I have only a very basic understanding of endgame betting strategy and I would love for someone to tell me other bets to make. So in summary in order of "best bettingness" 1) 305 2) 145 3) 70. What do you think? Cheers Reachy
145 If BR1 bets 305 BR2 is actually the favorite to win with a bet of 80. With 305 he gives up the low and still gives BR2 an opportunity to cover a push with a win of 80. BR1 can't surrender either because BR2 will follow it with a surrender lockout. A bet of 145 allows BR1 to surrender back to make BR2 get paid, and covers BR2's all-in with his own double down.
Thank you Monkeysystem!! This is when I realise I have sooooo much more to learn and why I enjoy posting on these threads. I always learn something and I am grateful to anybody who can point out weaknessess in my play. Thanks you. I also find it a little bit scary that there are obviously many levels of skill way above my current level. Oh well, more study, more practice... Cheers Reachy Ps. Sorry about going offline at bj21 today. Was working and had a customer come in.
Monkeysys, Thanks for your answer and rationale. It's members like you (among others) that make this a first rate site for education. How about this scenario: Everything is the same except BR2 bets 1st. How much should BR2 initially make? Personally I was thinking about an all-in 250.00
Probability question Hi Monkeysystem Can you describe how you figured the probabilty for BR2 having the advantage by betting 80 with a 305 bet from BR1? I guessed that you used Wongs win, lose or push table in CTS but I can only come up with 50% when I just looked it up. I'm clearly missing something. Thanks in advance. Reachy
Table 4 Yes, I used table 4 for that. BR1's chance of losing is 0.48. BR2 wins and BR1 pushes is 0.02. That's 50% already and that's not including the chance that BR1 will make an error and surrender. If BR2 goes first he should bet 245 and hope for a swing. 245 instead of 250 gives BR1 opportunities to make an error and either not cover his BJ or else goes all in and gives up the low.
Table 4 I used the table in a different way and only used the scores from the "Two Players" part of the table. With a BR1 305 bet and a BR2 80 bet, BR2 wins when they both lose (0.31), when BR1 loses and BR2 wins (0.12), when BR1 pushes and BR2 wins (0.02) and when BR2 pushes and BR1 loses (0.05). That all equals 50%. Why did you use single player data? Thansk in advance Reachy
Single Table Data You use single player data when analyzing this case because the outcome for both players is determined by a single player's (BR1) hand if he wins or loses. BR2's hand is irrelevant to the outcome if BR1 wins or loses so is not considered. If BR1 pushes then BR2's outcome is relevant, so you use the two player data for analysis in this case. There are five possibilities for the outcome; some use the single player data and some use the two player data: - BR1 wins his hand (BR2's hand is irrelevant), BR1 wins the table; 44% - BR1 loses his hand (BR2's hand is irrelevant), BR2 wins the table; 48% - BR1 pushes, BR2 wins his hand, BR2 wins the table; 2% - BR1 pushes, BR2 pushes, BR1 wins the table; 1% - BR1 pushes, BR2 loses his hand, BR1 wins the table; 5%
More knowledge aquired Hi Monkeysys Thanks for the explanation. I didn't realise you could use different parts of the table in the analysis of the same situation but I can see the logic now. I do note that BR2s chances of winning are 50% with your working out as well. I guess that's just a coincidence? Cheers Reachy
