it happened in Tulsa

What should each of the 3 players bet at the final table of a sit&go?

6 decks, DAS, DA2, BJ=3 to 2, late surrender allowed, $10 min. $500 max., must bet in 10 increments. First pays $300, 2nd $70, 3rd 0. buy-in was $70. 6 players started. Only 3 remaining for last hand.

Player 1 and betting first, Br $1225
Player 2 betting 2nd, Br $1220
Player 3 betting 3rd, 1030

tgun
P.S. thanks to all of you for the congrats on my Mon. Night win.

 

Advisor

BR1:

If it was heads-up I'd advocate taking the low but that approach is far from ideal with more than 2 opponents. Taking the low against 2 opponents will only give you 1st place 42% of the time and since taking the high by betting max gives you greater than 44%. Since BR1 and BR2 are so close I think your options are limited. BR3 is more than 1/3 max bet down on you so you can cover him on the high and have surrender back options.

10 gives you the low but only about 42% chance
500 gives you the total high but you can't surrrender back to the low over BR3 - 44+%
250 gives you double over BR2 and BR3's max bet and surrender back over BR3
310-380 gives you the high over BR3 with the surrender back as well as ability to double to cover BR2's max bet
380 covers BR2's max bet BJ with a double
410-490 covers BR3s max bet double with a double but allows BR2 to take the high and cover your doubles
500 covers BR2's max bet double with a double and you can surrender to force BR3 to win any bet greater than 110 with a surrender

I think I'd go 500 but 380 comes a close 2nd.

BR2:

Any bet over 260 will beat BR1s win with a double
Any bet over 320 beats BR3s max bet
Any bet over 340 will beat BR1s win with a BJ
Any bet up to 370 can be surrendered back to beat BR3s push or loss
385+ will beat BR1s BJ with a double
Any bet over 410 will beat BR3s max bet double with a double and can surrender to force BR3 to win any bet over 40
Any bet less than 500 will give you the low over BR1
Any bet less than 480 can be surrendered to beat BR1s surrender
Bets of 240 or less beat BR1's surrender

I'll go for 410

BR3:

380 doubled beats single bet wins by BR1 or BR2 and surrendered beats single bet losses by BR1 or BR2
10-30 gives you the low and prevents BR1 or BR2 surrender
450 can be doubled to beat BR1 or BR2 BJ and can be surrendered to beat BR1's loss but not BR2's

It's tricky but I'll go for 380.

Cheers

Reachy

 

My immediate thought was ....

BR1 : 500
BR2 : 480
BR3 : 500

This is largely coloured by the fact that 1st pays a lot more than 2nd.

BR2 is forced to take the low and by making it 480 rather than 490 prevents BR1 from surrendering, with the option for Curt's revenge if needed.

Aside from that detail, it seems like eveyone just needs to bet big and hope to win 1, 1.5, or 2 times their initial bet (on the understanding that at least one of the other two is likely to win their hand).

 

Let's not get too carried away. The fact is that BR2's and BR3's bets cannot be determined until you know BR1's bet. For example: If BR1 blunders and takes the low with a minimum bet then all the calculations made so far are out the window. If you try to cover all the possibilities then you need a pretty large spreadsheet by the time you get down to figuring BR3's bet. And 99% of the spreadsheet will be meaningless once BR1's and BR2's bets are known.

That being said, BR1's bet is simple - bet the max - $500. Being BR1 and betting first, you don't take the low against 2 or more contenders.

 

I thought it was fairly clear that implicit in both the question and the answers was the fact that we are just dealing with one possible path through the maze -

• What should BR1 bet?
• Assuming BR1 has bet this way, what should BR2 bet?
• Assuming BR1 and BR2 have both bet that way, what should BR3 bet?

I imagine we all realise that people do not always oblige by betting what we anticpate they will.

 

OK, let's change the question a bit and assume BR1 bets the max of $500. Let's see where that leads. The original particulars were:

6 decks, DAS, DA2, BJ=3 to 2, late surrender allowed, $10 min. $500 max., must bet in $10 increments. First pays $300, 2nd $70, 3rd 0. buy-in was $70. 6 players started. Only 3 remaining for last hand.

BR1 bets 1st, Br $1225
BR2 bets 2nd, Br $1220
BR3 bets 3rd, Br $1030​

Now let's say BR1 bets $500.

The new question is: What should BR2 bet?

 

done and done

Toolman

That's the question both I and Colin have already answered What would you do?

Cheers

Reachy

 

Reachy and I already made that assumption in our previous answers. I said BR2 should respond with 480, Reachy said 410.

480 is the maximum you can bet and be able to beat a BR1 surrender by surrendering yourself.

410 is the minimum you can bet and be able to beat a BR3 max-bet DD by also doubling.

At the table I'm sure I would have bet 480, but 410 might in principle be a bit better. 480 doesn't gain any additional benefit if you get a BJ or win a single bet; you are just as likely to have to double it in order to win. But 410 offers a bit more scope for beating BR3 with a surrender if BR3 makes a small bet (and loses it).

[Curse you Reachy. You beat me once again. ]

 

Br1 bet

Br 1 did bet $500, what should everyone else bet and was the $500 the best bet?

The bet of $500 by Br 1 is what started the debate. More later.


tgun

 

Searching forums

Colin, if you will maintain a "Searching Forums" status rather than "Who's Online" then you are bound to miss out on these early opportunities

I'd be suprised (and interested) if someone came up with something other than 500 for BR1. I initially thought of 380 as a flex bet (high over BR3s max bet, surrendered to buy BR3s push or loss, doubled to beat BR1s max bet or BJ) but prefered the straight up high.

I think anything between 410 and 480 for BR2 has a similar utility since BR3 is unlikely to bet less than 200.

For BR3 I chose 380 because it wasn't 500!! It also gives you options for Curts revenge or to buy BR1 and BR2s loss.

Now Toolman, what would you have done?

Cheers

Reachy

 

PUNT!!!
If I were at the table in the heat of battle with limited time to think, my bet (as BR2) would probably be $480 mainly to prevent a surrender by BR1 from hurting me. However, that may not be the best bet. I'll have to to think on this - more to follow later - probably.

 

My vote for BR2's bet is $340.

A $340 bet has most of the same advantages as a $480 bet when challenging BR1 (BR2 must still double or get a BJ if BR1 looks like a winner) so let's look at the situation when trying to beat BR3.

BR3 will most likely bet the minimum of $10 or bet large.

If BR3 bets the minimum of $10:
BR2 cannot surrender and get the low with a $410 bet. BR2's bet would have to be $370 (or lower) to secure the low with a surrender. A bet by BR2 of $340 allows for a surrender to lock out BR3 if BR3 wins a single bet or gets a BJ.

If BR3 bets the max of $500:
If the cards play out so it looks like BR2 will win his bet then BR3 must still double to have any decent chance.

Agreed that a double (or BJ) by BR2 would do no good against a double by BR3 (assuming BR3 bets large) but a double (or BJ) by BR2 would beat BR1 (assuming BR1 does not double).

As for BR3's bet - no comment. We have to know BR1's bet as well as BR2's bet before BR3's optimal bet can be determined. Speculation is folly.

 

ok

Br 2 also bet $500.

Now how does Br3 advance?


tgun

 

the toss

Surrender Back vs Forced Double? That is the question. This always proves a bit of a dilemma for me. I'm beginning to think the Surrender Back option isn't as useful as I thought in the past. When I "studied" it a few months back I came to the conclusion that you should only surrender back (as BR2 vs BR3 in this case) if BR3 looks like they are going to push or on certain hands when the dealer shows an Ace. In any other circumstance it is better to hit/double or stand.

This means that if I have to choose between a strategy that will require a forced double or one that allows you to buy your opponents loss or push, I am now favouring the forced double option.

Anyway, what should BR3 bet knowing that BR1 and BR2 have bet the max 500? Taking the absolute low will give odds of 31%, betting big is unlikely to offer anything better than that. A bet of 100 will allow BR3 to surrender back (and after what I just said!!) to lock out BR1's or BR2's surrender and can be doubled to beat pushes from BR1 and BR2. So, because it gives us an extra couple of options I going to say BR3 should bet 100.

Cheers

Reachy

 

My vote for BR3's bet is $10 and pray of course.

With BR1 and BR2 betting the max, BR3 is really hurting. As I see it, BR3 must either bet the max or take the low by betting $10. Not a great position to be in against 2 other players with higher bankrolls but a chance none the less especially since, with a $10 bet, a surrender by BR1 or BR2 is suicidal for them. They must play out their hands and either push or win. Also, although minor, BR3 would have at least a decent shot at 2nd place with a minimum bet.

 

how about $375 for BR2?

Basically I agree with BR2 taking low after BR1 bets max. But I think by betting $375 BR2 gets anorher important option - SR. So if BR1 busts or have a bad hand, SR option for BR2 becomes inportant to avoid LOSE-PUSH situation with BR3 (5%).

 

SR vs DD

Tirle - Interesting answer. This illustrates the crux of the dilemma I am currently going through. Which is more powerful - forced dd or surrender back? I have read that on average forced doubles are successful 33% of the time (i.e you beat the dealer). With 410 you can double to beat BR1 BJ (4%), with 375 you can't. You can also beat BR3's max bet double with your own. Do you think the benefit of the surrender back over BR3 outweighs the dd potential over BR1s BJ and BR3 max bet double?

Cheers

Reachy

 

conclusion

Br 3 followed Br1 and Br2's $500 max bets with a bet of $90. Br3 won when Br 1 committed suicide. Most of the debate here in Tulsa regarded Br1's best bet. The differing view was $500 vs $380.

Players had 30 seconds to make their bets.
Br3 bet the $90 hoping that Br1 would surrender. It worked!
Thanks for all of your posts guys.

tgun
P.S. I got to watch this hand because I busted out on the previous hand.

 

thanks

tgun - thanks for starting an excellent thread. I like the way you slowly trickled the info through

Actually, in many ways, I'm more interested in what BR2 should have bet after BR1s 500. Was there any discussion about that?


Cheers

Reachy