After what seems like weeks of wait I have finally got hold of CTS by Wong from Amazon. I started eagerly reading it last night but I have a few questions, mainly about probability. In an early chapter Wong talks about the probability of winning a tourney and compares the difference between the probability of winning with 1 hand left to play and the probability of winning with an infinite number of hands to play. To paraphrase: 3 players with BRs of 500,600 and 800 would have probabilities of winning of 5/19, 6/19 and 8/19 repectively if there were an unlimited number of hands to play (I understand this bit - I think!). However with one hand to play their probabilities of winning are .1, .2 and .7. I don't understand how the probabilites are figured out for the 2nd proposition. Please help. Cheers in advance Reachy
These are probably simulation results derived from Wong's tournament software, or something similar that he had available at the time he wrote the book. I wouldn't trust them to be very exact. The key idea here is not the particular numbers anyway, but instead the fact that a lead is more valuable late in the round than just the ratio of the chips would indicate.
