Well, the Big Dance is rapidly approaching at the Hilton, and I think it's time to get in a little practice. Let's post a few practice scenarios, and perhaps we can all learn something by talking about the pros and cons of various plays. Here's the first one, with numbers I made up: We'll assume the button is at Player A, this is the final hand, two advance, betting is $100 to $2500 in $100 increments, and surrender is allowed. Player A: $6800 Player B: $7800 Player C: $7000 Player D: $8000 Well, poor Player A is in last place, and on the button. The only good news is that he's less than half a max bet out of first place. What's his best bet here? My take on Player A: Most players here wouldn't think much, and would push a max $2500 bet out. But, is there a better play? You'd like to be able to double and take a high over any max bet at the table. Player D can get to $10500 with a max bet win, so you'd like to bet at least $1900. (A's $6800 + $1900 + $1900 = $10600) How about considering the possibility of a blackjack? Hmm, that's good news. A blackjack with $2500 will beat any single-bet win. (D's $8000 + $2500 = $10500. A's $6800 + $3750 = $10550.) I don't see any reason for A to bet anything other than $2500. Let me know what you think, and then work on Player B's bet.
Player B's Bet Ken, I think I would bet $800.00 if I was player B. Assuming player A bet $2500.00 and I bet $800.00 this would leave me with the second high amount of un bet chips regardless of what player C or D bet. I would then hope for the dealer to beat us all. What do you Think Slim100
I like $2,500 for player A. For player B, I would go with $1,600 bet. I can cover players A for high (without DD or split). I can surrender, to cut both Players A & C for high if we all have bad hands (based on player A betting $2,500 and Player C going Low $100). I can always DD if I need to to cover player C for high even if they BJ, (hopefully don't need to). I also have a chance at winning the table should I win and player D push or lose. The killer is a dealers BJ, that would send me to 3rd place (if C only goes low) with no chance to recover. I think this gives me the most outs to advance.
$1600 is a strong play I'm with TxTour here. Slim's choice of $800 would be a good possibility in a tournament that doesn't permit surrender. However, taking second low among four players is a scary proposition at best. If anyone wins, second low becomes third low. In this example, with surrender available, betting double that amount ($1600)gives you almost as good a "low", because you can surrender aggressively, and it does much more for you on the high, covering Player A's bet already. With the additional chips in play, you also open up more opportunities for doubles/splits and blackjack. Tx points out the single problem that surrender-low plays have. That's a dealer blackjack. If the dealer has the Ace up, you may be able to buy partial insurance to hedge. If the dealer has the ten up and Ace in the hole, well, you're toast. I like $1600 for Player B. Next up, more thoughts on A,B, or on to player C.
I like $2300 for player C I like 2300 for player C. He can double down or split with a possible double. He needs to be able to get the high from player D.
Assuming A has max bet and B bets 1600, I think a 2500 bet for C is pretty clear. It covers A&B's bet, allows a surrender to beat A and player B cannot surrender under you or you will surrender right back.
I'm torn I like $2,500 because it gives C first high, although D can bet $1,700 or $1,800 to get first high on single bet wins. Assuming such a bet by D, C can still take first high if all dd. On the other hand, a low bet of $400 or less will give C first low as I would assume that D would have to bet large to cover A & B. B or D can surrender to take away low from C, however, they would then be giving up high to C or A if A hasn't busted. Assuming all hands are bad, B's problem with surrender is that D can surrender after B and lock out B, so I don't think B surrenders. I think better play is bet of $400 and hope for strong dealer hand.
Player C, hope your lucky! Your chances are BAD, but you can and need to get lucky. It happens all the time, (usually against me...lol). By alrights Player B & D should have you for low (with surrender option) if they bet smart. Your only real option is BBAH, (Bet Big And Hope). You need either a swing with player B or D, or DD winner and hope player A doesn't hit a DD or split. Why low ($100 bet) won't work: Player B has ($7,800) bets $1,600, they surrender = $7,000 Player D has ($8,000) and bets $1,500, they surrender = $7,250 You player C has ($7,000) and bets $100 and surrender = $6,950 (Player B cuts you by $50). First you also need player A not to hit a DD, then you get to sweat out player B's play. If he plays smart he stands or surrenders based on what both you have and the dealer has up. If players A & B both make their hands you have just two choices; (1) surrender and hope for a dealers win or (2) DD reguardless what you have (your dead without it). As far as player D, they play after you so you don't have much you can do about them. You have to see what the other players (A & B) do before knowing your best play against player D.
another opinion Player A bets $2200 to have an option for 3-way split, especially (T,T). With total of $13400 he overcomes even player D's DD. Of course, with B & D both max out and having winning hands we'll be forced to double our BJ which is still OK, but what's the probability of that happening?
Re BBAH Let me see if I can find a reason for player A not to bet $2,500... As player A I'm in the "outhouse" so what about a bet of $1,400... A win of $1,400 is as good as $2,500 and for me to advance the same must happen... Rick and others favor $1,600 bet made by B but what about high to C if C bets $2,500? "wrong" DD of B to cover it will win only 20-30% (see nice chart on DD provided by Ken - thanks Ken). So just to talk about it how about if B bets $1,900? As player C most will bet $2,500 and dream about BJ or nice DD win. Going back to player A , what about if player A surrenders? Can you see possible 2nd low?
I think Ken pulled a nice trick on us here. We can discus many options of what to do until we get blue…I mean … without specifying what kind of players we are dealing with, there are countless variations of play. Tirle noticed an interesting way for Player A for a rare chance, nevertheless a chance, to win a tripled bet. In such a case, I think, 2,100 is even slightly better than 2,200. The main point is to cover maximum single win by other players (Player D can get to 13K). Winning 3 times 2.1K plus 6.8K equals 13.1K, but losing 6.1K leaves player A with 700. Being left with 700 instead of 200 has a better chance of advancing, when everybody doubles and loses. Personally, as player A I would bet 2,500. Player B would have an easier choice if only one player advanced - bet of 2,200 (when Player D is likely to bet 2,5K) or bet of 2,500. With two players advancing bet of 1,600 is tempting but big bet in most real life situations would work better. If Player B bets 1,600 -Player C bets 2,500. If player B bets more than 1,600 – Player C should bet 100, the minimum. Player D, generally, have to match Player B betting. In case of Player B betting 2,500 it should be only 2,400, and in case of Player B betting 2,200 it should be 2,300. (Bets of 2,400 or less give chance to surrender when Player B busts and Player A loses or pushes. Bet of 2,300 covers Player A getting blackjack.) S. Yama
Highest percintages is all were looking for. I agree with S. Yama that there are several ways to play these hands and I am sure Ken is trying to trick us, but what he is trying to do is make us find the highest percentage play. What is the best move that gives each player his/her best chance to advance is what were looking for. Facaddu I am sorry if you thought I was telling you or any one what the correct play was. All I ever write about is what I would do whether it is right or wrong. I just wrote a trend a few days ago on this very subject, “Winning Wrong or Losing Rightâ€. Now saying all of that I will correct facaddu on saying that player B’s DD would be wrong. The fact of the matter is that under the circumstances I mention would be the highest percentage play you could make. If he/she goes back and reads what I said, he/she would see that the DD was only in a certain situation and I even went on to say I hope I wouldn’t have to DD. Example hand below: using facuddu play’s for players A, B, & C. I will assume for player D. Player A - has $6,800 and bets $1,400. They hit a DD 21 in front of you. Player B – has $7,800 and bets $1,900. They have a hard 13. Player C – has $7,000 and bets $2,500. They hit a Blackjack. Player D – has $8,000 and bets $1,800. They have a hard 19. Your player B, it’s your turn, what do you do? If you stand you lose to A & C even if the dealer draws 21. If you hit and make 21 you still need the dealer to make 21 as well or you lose again to players A & C. How does my DD for player B look now? I bet the percentage is higher then both you and the dealer drawing 21. We can ping-pong “IF†back in forth, but unfortunately we have to make our bets before seeing the cards.
A shot in the dark Here's my stab at this: Player A: $6800 bets $2500 Player B: $7800 bets $2500 Player C: $7000 bets $2500 Player D: $8000 bets $1600 A, B & D are forced to bet the max out of competion with one another. D has the dual luxury of being the leader and betting last. The $1600 bet leaves him vulnerable to B's Blackjack, but should still keep him in with a good shot for the money. Sentry
