Here's a scenario that I would like to get some opinions on. Here's the low down: Betting first BR3 3100 second BR4 2700 third BR1 6500 last BR2 5400 Ok, BR3 bets 3000 BR2 bets (ah ha) secret bet - but assuming from recent play 2700 You're BR1 and up to bet. This is the elimination hand. What's the optimal bet? 2. Since it is hand 16 and YOU (BR1) still have the secret bet card available do you use it now or wait?
Unless you stated the numbers incorrectly, why would you want to secret bet? Simply bet $100, to lock the first two players out, unless they both get a BJ, or you could bet $300, to beat player 2 if 1 and 2 get BJ's and you win your hand. But a loss by you with $300 bet, and a BJ by player 2, along with a win by player 1 would tie you with player 1 @ $6200. Which may be ok, depending on the outcome of player four's hand.
swog is right, the secret bet is of no value here. If you're allowed to bet in $5 increments, a bet of $255 covers everything, locking out BR3 and BR4. If they both get blackjack, you're still OK if you win your bet. If you must bet in $100 increments, but surrender is available, you can bet $300, and you're covered if BR3 and BR4 both blackjack, but you can surrender to lock out the BR3 swing anytime they don't both get blackjack. If surrender is not available, I'd just give up the one in 443 chance they'll both get blackjack. :laugh: Seriously, a $100 bet means you're guaranteed to not be eliminated in 442 out of 443 attempts. That's pretty good!
One more thought on the bet size. If surrender is available, then $300 would be a good amount. If it is not available, then $200 would be better than $100. If both players do get BJ's, the $200 bet would allow you to double down to pass player two.
