Here's a scenario that I recently participated in. I'd like to hear what about people think: BR1 42000 no secret bet BR2 41000 secret bet and on the button Hand 16 - elimination hand What is the optimal bet for BR2? Assuming BR2 uses secret bet what should BR2 do?
Depends who you are playing Was it a wabbit? A minimum bet would work if BR1 bets minimum and you get a swing (you would tie) or if BR1 bets more than 2000 and they lose. If they bet 2500+ you could surrender a min bet and force them to win or push their hand. Odds are 12%, 48% and 48%. A mid range bet, say $13K, would have the high if BR1 goes small or can be doubled to beat a single max bet win by BR1. If you surrendered it that would lock out BR1 surrendering any bet over $15.5K. If you think BR1 will take the minimum then a bet of $2K will have the high. But of course they may think you've done that already and bet $1.5K which would mean that you need to bet $3K to win. But if they think you've done that they will bet $2.5K in which case you need to bet $4K. And so on and so on..... Cheers Reachy
????? Who knows??? I didn't say it was the best bet.... Like I said if BR1 bets big you win if they lose and they may not be able to surrender. Cheers Reachy
I think you just want to pick some random number between 1500 and 20500, and hope that BR1 doesn't guess it exactly. That way, you'll have the high or the low, and you'll find out which soon enough. I'd likely go for a number above 10K so that your DD and surrender options are meaningful.
bet? BR1 42000 no secret bet BR2 41000 secret bet and on the button Hand 16 - elimination hand What is the optimal bet for BR2? Assuming BR2 uses secret bet what should BR2 do If on UBT then bet min. If on GPC then bet 1/2 BR. tgun
Keep in mind, that if your opponent can predict your bet or accidentally match your bet, you are in deep trouble. The problem with splitting your bankroll is that if your opponent splits his bankroll, you are dominated on the high and low. That's why I suggest a random number thats hard to guess.
Agreed and that's why my take on the opponent would come into play. However, with them not having a secret bet I feel splitting my bankroll gives me more options after the cards have been dealt that can address any bet they make.
Thank you all for the excellent ideas. I have come to the following conclusions in this particular situation 1. The secret bet MUST be used - originally I thought about placing a bet out there and trying to trap the other player into making a bad bet, however after doing all the work I came to the conclusion that with only 1000 difference NOT using the secret bet was plain stupid 2. The "correct" bet is mostly dependent upon the opponent in this circumstance. Having seen their play for the past 15 hands (last 7 were 1-1) understading their psychology would be critical in determining the correct bet. 3. Extreme betting, in ThiS particular circumstane, really limits the options. Therefore random numbers are most likely to be beneficial 4. Be unpredictable To all of you who took the time for advice I thank you!
secret bet = power to BR2 BR2s best chance of beating BR1 is to have the low. BR1s bets chance of winning is to have the high and the low. BR2 is in the worst possible position being both BR2 and on the button. If BR2 bets in the open BR1 just correlates for the high-low and an 81% chance of winning. Now that BR2 has a secret bet they have an opportunity to take the high or the low (but not both) and nearly 1/2 BR1s advantage. Which would you want? If you go small ideally you want to cover a BR1 push so that you are not locked out if they bet minimum. Mid-range bets are good because they give you options but you have to have a good read on your opponent to play them well. I like big bets also... It just depends. Cheers Reachy
On a practical note - applying this thread to real life Look at Joeps' post about the final hand in St. Kitts. BR3 was betting last. BR1 uses secret bet BR2 bets max BR3 has a choice Hmmmm..... Psychology 101 anyone? This is an example of where rubber meets the road.
I was thinking the same thing Dealer BJ obviously favours BR1 but BR3 should have taken at least 2nd low or why not bet the min and pretty much guarantee 1st low. Would have been a completely different outcome when the dealer flipped that snapper... Cheers Reachy
St Kitts last hand Actually fgk you haven't quite got the last hand right BR2 acts first, bets max and uses secret bet BR1 acts 2nd , no secret bet but bets max also getting the high and low at this point BR3 acts last, internet qualifier, could have taken low, bet it all except for a chip. Thing with BR3 here is that he can't ever get the high because he doesn't have enough chips. He can only raise his BR to $191K (he has $95.5K) so he needs a swing, which is the low probabilty option. He must know that by betting it all he won't have the low and that he's highly unlikely to have the high. He's obviously adopting the (in my opinion flawed ) "when in doubt push it out" strategy. If he was sure that BR1 had also bet 100K he could have bet $65K for the low, but what's the point? If he doubles he will still only have $191K which won't beat either BR1 or BR2's single bet wins. It also leaves him vulnerable to surrender from BR1 or BR2. If he bets $30K this means that he can lock out either BR1 or BR2 surrendering as he can just surrender over the top of them. Or he could bet $15K and lock that surrender out right away. But then is $500 any worse than $15k? Or 30K or $65K or all-in? cheers reachy
Just an FYI to all those who answered FGK's questions. Reachy was correct in guessing I was the wabbit. And while I did guess FGK's secret bet, he did still in fact win the hand and the chip. Bravo FGK, you're a great player! Bunnytrix
