Last hand boo-boo!

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by Reachy, Sep 7, 2007.

  1. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Not having played for a few months I feel like a complete newbie again hence my post here. I almost forgot basic strategy as well!!!! Need to re-read CTS... anyway.....

    Last hand poser from last night at blackjack21.com. I got a bit rattled over there because I forgot that they only have a 20 second timer and I got timed out on a crucial hand. It didn't matter though as I still won the table but it made me a little "panicky" later on for other crucial decisions, not least the following example.

    Last hand, final table. 1st place $154, 2nd $66, 3rd and 4th nada.

    BR1 -5,188.00 Bet - 100.00
    BR4 - 4,600.00 Bet - 1,000.00
    BR3 - 4,700.00 Bet - 1,000.00
    BR2 - 4,750.00 Bet - 540.00

    I'm BR3. BR1 obviously just opted for the low road and let the dealer do all the work (which incidentally he was, busting all the time and giving out BJs all over the shop). BR4 bets max, no suprise, I decide to correlate to give me the high knowing that BR2 could cover me whatever. BR2 decides to go for 540 which suprises me since he could also corrolate and have 1st high 2nd low, instead he has 3rd high 2nd low.

    BR1 -BJ
    BR4 - 15
    BR3 - 15
    BR2 - Soft 16
    Dealer 3

    BR1 doubles, I guess because that could beat a single bet win from BR2, and gets a 5 for 16. BR4 stands. Now this is where I have a brainfart and..., well, I won't tell you yet what I did until I get some feedback! What should BR3 do in this situation?

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  2. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Stand

    BR1 doubling his BJ made no sense. His BJ had BR2 covered and his double down win didn't cover anything that his BJ didn't.

    With these payouts you should play this as if there were only one winner.

    If you stand and the dealer breaks, you're the winner. 38%.

    A double down is no help, as you already have the high, unless you're trying to keep BR2's money off the table. Since BR2 has a hard 16, you shouldn't worry about that.

    A push is as bad as a loss for you. Use that strategy and stand. In fact if your hand were hard 12 you'd stand.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2007
  3. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Soft

    BR2 had a A, 5 not a hard 16. He was always likely to double but may have 2nd thoughts since he would give up 2nd low to BR3.

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  4. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    I know what you did last ... night

    I was watching, having been knocked out at your table in the previous round. :(

    Without working out the numbers, I think I would stand. It's the BS play and it would give you 1st place (if you win) unless BR2 doubles and wins. Even if that were to happen, standing gives you your best chance at 2nd place.

    The problem, which I think you recognised, is that with you on a stiff total and BR2 on a soft total, any DD by BR2 excludes you from 1st place, since BR2 can't bust. (so if you win the hand, then BR2 wins too).

    But you don't know for sure that BR2 will DD, and even if it's a certainty, maybe the overall EV calculation favours settling for 2nd?
     
  5. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Oops, Misread It

    BR2's soft 16 changes everything. If they double for 500 you're locked out.

    Double down and pray.
     
  6. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    You can only double for the full amount at bj21, which alters things slightly.
     
  7. fgk42

    fgk42 New Member

    Actually that is my biggest complaint about BJ21 - not being able to DFL. In this case I would have simply stayed, forcing BR 2 to DD and beat me.

    On a different note:

    How many players did the MTT have? How many rounds were you playing? Just curious
     
  8. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    double dork

    There were 11 players, 2 rounds, 15 hands per round.

    You are right, there are a few things that bj21 should sort out to make the game a little better but on the whole I like it. The interface is a little clumsy and the lobby is a not that intuitive. It'd be nice to know who was registered for the tourney beforehand as well.

    Yes, I doubled, not sure why, I knew I should have stayed, but that 20 second timer was freakin' me out man! Anyway, these early games are a re-education for me, just getting back up to speed., trying to remember what I forgot...

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  9. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    Maybe we could come up with a list of desirable changes and email it to customer services. Putting all our names to it, rather than having it come from just one player, might give it more weight.
    Ones I can think of are -
    • Increase the timer to 40s on the last hand.
    • Add an edit box to enter the bet directly. (Clicking on chips is just too fiddly and error prone, at least with the current user interface.)
    • Double and Insure for less.
    • Automate the process by which offline/inactive players are ejected, so that it happens at a predictable point. (At present it is done manually, some time after round 10, with the possibility that they might not get around to it if they are busy.)
    • Include MTTs, not just STTs, in the 'History' section that lets you review each hand of completed games.

    I'm not sure it's that clear-cut. Standing would have been my choice, but I'm prepared to be proved wrong. The 70:30 split between first and second might be enough to warrant the DD. The unpredictability of what BR2 is going to do is an added confusion.
     
  10. fgk42

    fgk42 New Member

    Excellent list and I concur 100% on all of the above. I'd go as far as to allow 60 sec on the final hand but hey anything is better than the 20 seconds now. I've been timed out several times as well.
     
  11. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    Put my name to it!

    I'm happy to put me name to that email Colin. Also suggest:

    - $1 and $5 games either permanently or as a "happy hour" to encourage growth and new players
    - A 5 second warning on the timer. It tends to just sneak up on you.

    I'm sure I'll think of other stuff as well

    Cheers

    Reachy
     
  12. arlalik

    arlalik Member

    Reachy you can feel better now

    Reachy,
    If BR3 stand, then BR2 has 2 choices - DD or Hit
    If he wins DD then comes 1st($154), pushes for 2nd($66).
    EV by doubling is about $75.

    If he hit, then he can come 1st only when he win while dealer make a hand, and comes 2nd when he push or lose while dealer make a hand.
    EV in this case is about $60.

    So now after we know that correct play for BR2 is DD when BR3 stand,
    then BR3 has only about $30 EV by standing.

    If BR3 DD then he wins about 27%($154) and pushes about 5% for 2nd
    ($66).
    EV is about $45.
     
  13. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    Update

    I confess I never did send that email. However, the CEO of 21gnet is in London at the moment. He got in touch, and was kind enough to buy me lunch and listen to my thoughts about the site.

    I raised all the points mentioned above, and he promised to implement as many of them as possible. He also mentioned that the player pool may be growing in the near future, with the addition of some more partner sites.

    I also described a couple of bugs that I have noted. They are very infrequent, and at times I've been unsure if I was imagining them. Can anyone confirm that they have seen either of the following -
    1. If a player loses all their chips and gets eliminated, the 'first base' button sometimes seems to go astray on the next round, seemingly being allocated randomly. Possibly this is when the eliminated player was due to have the button in that round, but I'm not sure if that is the only factor.
    2. On very rare occasions my action to 'hit' (or whatever) gets ignored, even if I pressed the button very early in the 20s timer period. The timer counts down, the buttons are disabled so there is no way of trying it again, and I end up standing. It's exceedingly rare, but it does seem to be an issue.
    I was asked to note the table id, and log a report the next time I see one of these. (Up to now, I've always forgotten to do this in the heat of the moment.) Maybe others can do the same? (Assuming, it really isn't just a case of me going mad.)

    I came away from our brief chat feeling quite hopeful about the future prospects, but then I'm easily swayed by a free lunch. :)
     

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