$100 Bet21 tourney - Final hand, 3 advance BR3 is MichaelCofUBT is on the button. BR2 is a typical $100 MTT Player. BR1 is an idiot, but far ahead. BR3 $33000 $SECRET 77 (split to 73-DD, 738) BR2 $36000 $SECRET 97 BR1 $63000 $500 85 ME! $20500 $20500 T8 Dealer 4 ------------------------------ So, what do you do? Stay on 18 and pray for a dealer 17, or do something unusual?
Not Promising But... Your 18 is already at the hard standing number for this situation. You're looking to surpass an opponent without the option to double. If you had a stiff or 17 you'd have to take a hit here to be able to win while at least one opponent pushes or loses. Hitting will hurt your already small chance here. You have a better chance of the dealer drawing out to 17 than both making a hand and the dealer getting between you and BR2.
I'm confused (as usual) I'm probably going to reveal my ignorance with these comments, but here goes ... What bet would you put MicahaelC on? I'd have thought it would be 8500, but then I don't understand why he split the 7s rather than stand, and am at a loss to know whether the subsequent DD would have been for the full amount or for less (maybe just 500 to hide the DD card). At any rate, it looks like a dealer 18, not just 17 might give you a chance (if MichaelC loses both his hands and has bet enough to be behind your push). If he really has now got 3 x 8500 bet, then you could surrender, but maybe that's what he wants you to think?
So MichaelC knows I bet at least $13000, and almost assuredly over $16000. He also assuredly bet something in the range of $8500 to $12000. Now, when he and BR2 get stiffs and I get an 18, he probably figures that I am going to stand, and if the dealer gets 17, he will be out. So, I think he put his faith into splitting and hoping he gets 2 17s. Then he doubles down the first hand, but not the second hand. That made me think (at the time) that it was a full double-down and he essentially didn't have money left do double the second hand. I figured that he probably wanted to turn the hand into a single bet win to beat me. When it came to me, I decided that hoping for a 17 was a 12% chance, but that if I surrender, I think I can win on a dealer 21, as well as a 20 or 19 that loses to Michael's DD. Of course whether this is a better bet depends on what Michael actually did.
I see you've edited your original post slightly, making my comment about the possibility of advancing by pushing a dealer 18 look a bit strange. However, if you do make your decisions under the assumption that the DD was for the full amount (>= 8500), then a dealer 18 could still be good enough for you if the DD hand turns out to be < 18. Was your bet secret then? I'm not sure that actually makes much difference, but I'm still struggling to understand MichealC's actions. He might not be out. It depends what BR2 bet. But I suppose the chances are high that it was only 5500. Perhaps the idea was to get the high against BR2 while keeping the low against you (even if you surrender). If MichaelC's bet was 8500 and he assumes BR2 bet no more than 15000 then he needs to get another 10000 in action - split and DD for 1500. This is making my head hurt and I may well be missing several things, but it seems to me that by splitting rather than standing on 77 he has swapped a situtation in which one dealer outcome - 17 - might put him out (depending on what BR2 bet) for one in which a different dealer outcome - 18 - might put him out (you push and BR2 probably has the low on him), plus he might not have got a hand that he could DD without risking a bust. With BR2 on a stiff, I suppose the relatively high probability of an overall push from splitting (win one, lose one) comes into play too. So long as BR2 hasn't chosen to bet 2500 then this would be enough. Secret bets. I hate 'em!
Good Point, Colin. Thanks to MichaelC, I have added in another 10% chance of advancing is the dealer hits to 18 and Michael loses 1.5 or more bets. That puts my advance percentage at over 20%, and I think you are right that I should stay. I did choose to surrender and hope for a high dealer result (19+). The dealer ended up on, you guessed it, 17. After BR3 said his goodbyes, he was flabbergasted to see that I surrendered and that he was still in it. I figured that a surrender could likely cover Michael C if he lost all of his hands, and that was better than the 12% chance that came in.
So how much had he bet and how much did he DD for? I'm still unsure about exactly what his strategy was and whether it was actually better than standing on 77.
