This was the final hand of my round 2 play at this weekend's Las Vegas Hilton MD2 qualifier. I was on the button, first to act. Two players advance. The dealer has a Ten up. Me: $ 7400 Bet $2500 Cards: A 2 B: $ 6250 Bet $2500 Cards: T 8 C: $ 7150 Bet $2300 Cards: 6 9 D: $ 8800 Bet $1600 Cards: 2 5 Note that player C misbet pretty fundamentally. He's usually a pretty strong competitor so I expect he miscounted my chips. So, I was thrilled to see the bets that were made. I had second high and second low at this point. The dilemma for me: Should I double A2vT, or do I hit and where do I stop hitting, or do I surrender? I'll post my decision in a day or two.
surrender? I haven't done the math, but...I say Surrender. By surrendering, you basically take away the option of B or C surrendering as if either one surrenders, then D can surrender and guarantee that D will advance and more importantly guarantee that B or C (whoever surrendered) will NOT advance. Once you surrender, B & C are forced to either stand and hope for dealer bust or take chance on hit or double and most likely bust. On the other hand if you hit, unless you are able to hit to 20 or 21, I would imagine it is likely that B or C (almost definitely) would surrender. If you do hit and get a stiff (5/13) then you are forced to either stand stiff or take your chances on possibly busting in front of those bad hands. Finally, a double down gets more money on the table, but, you already have 2nd high/2nd low, so you are not in a position where you need or want to trade that for 1st high/4th low especially since no one has a good double behind you.
I agreed with johng and Walt. I surrendered. It sure felt strange, because I'm conceding first place, and I'm then beaten by a push or win by either B or C. However, with a ten up the dealer makes 19+ over 52% of the time. The reasons johng stated were similar to my thinking. It turned out to be a good choice, because I advanced.
I agree -- surrender I agree. Surrender is the best option. I didn't even consider surrender when I ran options through my mind.
