Last hand scenario and questions

Okay, here’s the final hand at the final table in my local tournament.

(in final betting order)
BR1 - $800
BR2 - $650
BR4 - $375
BR3 - $475
BR5&6 - about $100 each

Given: want to be BR3 or better, final table plays semi-conservative (would rather keep position for higher payout than drop below BR3), no secret bets, no limit on last hand.

Q1 – You’re BR1, you have first bet, how much do you bet?
Q2 – You’re BR2, you have second bet, how much do you bet if BR1 leads out with $5?
Q3 – Same as Q2 but BR1 leads out with $300?

Actual results, I was BR1 and bet $300, BR2 bet $50, BR4 bet $175, and BR3 bet $250. Dealer made 20, table lost or pushed, I fell to 2nd, BR2 moved to 1st, others stayed the same.

My thinking was: BR2/3/4 won’t go all in because they can lose too much prize money, so they’ll hold back at least $200 (enough to beat 5&6 if either doubles up). BR2 shouldn’t expect both 3&4 to lose, so 2 will have to bet enough to keep ahead of them, so I expect 2 to bet as high as $350-450.
$450 plus the $650 that 2 currently has means I need to make $1100, so I bet $300.

Q4 – Did BR2 make a good bet or bad bet of $50 after I led out with $300? (I think bad, because BR3 was betting after and could/did bet enough to go ahead on a win)
Q5 – Any comments on my play and thinking?

 

multiple choice

Hi Masteff

I'll give it a go (I love these teasers )

Q1:

My thought processes may be like this - I'm BR1 but I'm acting first and I don't have a great lead over my close opponents so I'm going to need some luck to maintain BR1 but should be OK to stay in the money. BR4 is still a potential danger but bets of 5-45 lock up BR3 for me, excluding a BR4 all-in BJ. I could bet 320 and maintain the absolute low over BR3 and almost certainly get 1st high and it's possible I'll have 1st low. A bet of 145 guarantees me 1st low but leaves me vulnerable at the high end. I doubt BR2 or BR3 will go for the high since it will expose them also; BR2 would need to bet 300 which could allow BR3 and BR4 to take the low off them; BR3 would need to go all in and probably wont do that. If BR2 did go for the high I could double to retake it if required. So, as a discussion point, I'd opt for 145 as my bet.

Q2:

160. It gives you 2nd low and likely 1st high. If you win you overtake BR1 regardless, if you lose you beat BR3 push or loss.

Q3:

Possibly the same as Q2 (160) but 145 would give you 1st low likely 2nd high.

Q4:

I can see what BR2 was doing with $50 (i.e. going for 1st low) but it's too small to cover BR1 push and opens the door to BR3. BR3 would not have covered 145-160 since that would give up the low to BR4.

Q5:

FWIW your play was fine but I prefer the 145. I don't think there is much in it though.

Cheers

Reachy

I'm asssuming No Surrender here since this seems to be the norm in B&M casinos

 

I have no idea what this means. How about posting the payout schedule?

Off hand it looks like you and Reachy are not interested in winning. This is completely contrary to my philosophy and nature unless of course one is satisfied with "second best" . Food for thought.

 

put up

Mr Twenty Large AKA Toolman

Whilst your increasingly impressive track record at TBJ elevates you to my No. 1 role model it doesn't mean you should start to become so coy . Although we don't know the prize structure lets assume, as I did, that the top 3 pay and that 1st is considerably better that 2nd etc...

So come on then, lets have it, what's your bet??????

Oh and BTW my 145 bet would have won the table. I always play to win... Sounds like a book I once read....

Cheers

Reachy

PS. Do you like my new avatar?

 

I'd love to put in my .25 but before I do I'd ask for some more information:

1. Is surrender available?
2. What is the max and min bets?
3. What are the prize totals?

All of the above answers influence my bets

 

Reachy,

First of all, "Play To Win". Yes, that's what I do. Don't always succeed and many others succeed much more often than me but it keeps my PMA up and running. Normally accepting second or third or whatever is for losers. If you want to accept that then that's your problem, not mine.

So when I ask for more information it's because not enough information was provided, in my opinion, to give an answer. Has nothing to do with attitude. If you find a problem with that, well, that's too bad.

As for what I would bet, I like Ken's bet if all the assumptions he made are correct. However, I'd rather have information instead of second guessing. Information is the key to winning in games as well as life.

 

bud

Toolman

I hope you didn't misinterpret the tone of my post, I was hoping to be lighthearted :joker:

Ken

Masteff said in his post that there was no max bet limit. However, based on your assumptions of a $300 max bet can I ask why you like $230?

Cheers

Reachy

 

Didn't come across that way. Anyway, I'm done with this thread - should not have got involved to begin with.

PS: Your avatar is pretty tame. You didn't have to go to the other extreme.

 

Pussy

I get scared when I answer these teasers now because I fear that I'm going to be so far off the mark that I just look like a complete dullard! Guess what, I'm a dullard :joker: Thanks Ken for the pointers, you are the King (yes I'm a sycophant).

FYI the avatar that the cat replaced was a still from the Olympic Diving Competition, well spotted Tex. I'm waiting for my pictures from the London Marathon wot I did last Sunday to come through so I can post them. My nipples bled everywhere, it looks horrid. It was the hottest ever and I crossed the line with Gordon Ramsey. I'm sure some of you know him; Hells Kitchen anyone?

Cheers

Reachy

 

Very useful input everyone! Thanks!

I should have clarified the rules better but didn't want people to feel too constrained by them in their thinking (the process being more important to me than necessarily the results).
Double any two cards
Resplit aces
Split up to four times
Surrender (yep, surrrender)
BJ pays 2:1
Min bet $5
Max bet $500, except unlimited on last hand
Casino matches entries for 200% prize pool (entry is $25)
Payouts: 1st-35%, 2nd-25%, 3rd-20%, 4th-10%, 5th&6th-5% each
(based on $1650 prize pool, that's $577, $412, $330, $165, $82 and $82)

By "semi-conservative", I mean that based on several weeks observations, players in this tourney are less aggressive w/ their betting at the final table. People will go bust in the qualifying rounds, but at final table they seem to conserve their bankroll more.

I picked BR3 as minimum desired result because it's double BR4 and just 5% behind BR2. And it fits with how I've observed people at this tourney play the final table.

If I had the hand to play over again, I'd have bet $145 (to stay ahead of BR2).
If I had the whole last table to play over again, I'd have used my qualifying strategy and gone all in after the button passed me.

 

masteff,
Thanks for the additional info I requested. So let's examine the payout schedule. If you go for first and lose you'll probably end up 4th. Since you are BR1, that will happen 48% of the time. If you go for first and win, that will happen 44% of the time. Let's exclude pushes since that would probably result in a near wash. Now the number crunching assuming you play 92 times:

If you go for first:
44 times you will win $577 for a total of = $25,388
48 times you will win $165 for a total of = $7,920
So if you go for a win you have $33,308 ($25,388 + $7,920) on average if this scenario occurs 92 times.

If you go for third:
If you get 2nd, half the time thats $18,952 ($412 x 46)
If you get 3rd, half the time thats $15,180 ($330 x 46)
So if you go for 3rd you have $34,132 ($18,952 + 15,180) on average if this scenario occurs 92 times.

Now, when you figure in that sometimes you will end up below 3rd or 4th the two ways of playing are essentially equal. So, I say go for #1. It's better for your psychological well being and it's more fun to win than to be #3.

Reachy,
Now it's your turn. I asked for and received the information I requested and that's as far as I'm going. So, since I'm now out of it, give us the bet bets on the assumption BR1 is going for a win.

 

Winner Takes All

...was the name of a great gameshow over here in the UK which we probably nicked from you guys anyway.

It's hard for me to come up with another bet after I've seen the other suggestions however I will point out again that my original $145 bet would have taken 1st place.

I'd also like to clarify what we mean when we say we are "going for the win". I get the (possibly false) impression that often people take this to mean betting big or dominating the high. If this is the case I don't agree that this approach is always the best way to "go for the win".

However I do think that some of the rules that Masteff revealed to us do have a significant impact on our strategy. With BJs paying 2:1 and surrender available I'd probably do it differently. My original $145 suggestion was based on a guaranteed 1st low with probable 1st high. What I might bet now would be $290. This will likely give you the 1st high but can be doubled to give you the definite high and you can surrender back to beat a BR2 push or loss. I'm also toying with $340 since it would allow you to cover BR3s all-in BJ with a double of your own plus you can surrender to beat BR3s push or loss. Hmm, what to do... 340 also covers BR4 all-in BJ without need to double. That's it, I'll go $340.

Cheers

Reachy

 

To me "going for the win" means betting enough to make winning the table a real possibility and accepting the risk of ending up 3rd or lower if one loses. Another way of looking at it is if one can lock up 2nd place with only a small chance of winning the table then that is not "going for the win". That's my opinion.

 

I can buy that, definitely the part about 2nd place.