lets post some ACTUAL data shall we? April 11, 2007. $50 SNG table and you’re in seat 7 (great seat) Dealer Up Dealers Result Card Final Cards 7 18 Loss Queen 22 Win – dealer bust Queen 20 Loss 8 21 Loss Ace 20 Loss 8 18 Loss 3 23 Win – dealer bust Queen 20 Loss 4 18 Loss Jack 20 Loss 10 17 Loss 6 21 Loss The dealer drew to 19, 20 or 21 6/12 times (50%). The dealer only bust 2/12 times or (16.7%) Probability charts tell us that the dealer should draw to 19, 20 or 21 38.6% of the time. In addition the dealer should bust 28.2% of the time. Now, taking the above figures and using a binomial calculator we find that the probability of the dealer only busting is 19.1%. How about drawing to 19, 20 or 21? Using the same mathematical resources we find the probability of the dealer having 19, 20 or 21 6 times in 12 hands to be 16%. Wow, how unlucky can one person get? Unless the results are skewed/tainted?
