I am experiencing a losing streak at this particular casino and it's been two months already and I haven't made it to the final table once. Before this, my rate of making to the final table at this casino was like 25% to 30%. I mean it's not that hard to make to the final table cause this is a mini tourney with 35 to 42 people on average and 7 move to the final table. I play at this casino on average 3 times a weeks, sometimes even 4 times. For some miracle reasons, I always seem to be swung on the last 3 hands even if I manage to be the top chip leader before the last three hands. A lot of times, I was able to maintain my position as chip leader till the last three hands or even on the last hand, only to experience a lose-win situation or some players get a blackjack or win on their stiff double down hand. This is so freaking weird. Things like this should only happen once every century, but it's happening to me now. I am doing fine at the other casino, but this casino... damn, sometimes I feel like I am cursed at this casino or something. Sorry if I waste the forum space, but I have to throw this on here to steam myself off. Any consolations or advices (even religious advices) regarding what I should do is appreciated
You called it.... Your just in a losing streak now, just like you were in a winning streak. Just keep playing and things will turn around. Also are the players around you improving? This makes a big difference, I went to a new casino tournament with about 75 players and won back to back weeks, but then the players started understanding tournament play and winning wasn't as easy.
Hair Raiser Mr Darklord let me be the first one to welcome you to this exclusive club of ours. Where if you don't get swung on one of the last 3 hands you are just one lucky son of a gun. It seems to happen a lot more than 12 % of the time .Do keep in mind that the 12% is valid against only one other opponent when there are 3 or more players at the table its frequency will rise as high as the Assassins hair last night on the WSOB 111 . Joep2
Do not take it too close to your hearth Darklord you have to face the reality. When you have 3 players behind you, the best you can hope is hard 16s for each of them and T dor dealer. This is where they are less likely to swing you. Lets see what happens if all 3 of them DD their 16s. For 1 player to win DD hard 16 vs dealer's T is about 20%. Not to win is 100-20=80%. For all 3 of them to be unsuccessful is 80%*80%*80%=51%. So at least one of them is successful 49% in that particular hand. In last 3 hands that number comes to 51%*51%*51%=13%, that means that at least on is successful 87%. This is just an example to evaluate situations like that. Generally it is not always true, because after losing DD bets in first hand they almost are out of the game. But from the other side average probability to win DD is 30% not 20%. In that case if all 3 DD, probability for at least one player to be successful is 66%. I hope you will feel much better after all this posts from this community. You can see that you are not alone. The only reason I can see for your winnings with lower rate than before is that you are competing mainly with local players and they also play 3-4 times a week. After a while they become better players and that affects on your winning rate. Play more, get enough statistics then compare your results with your entry fees. You want suggestions? Have a good night sleep, take a cold shower and head in to the next tournament.
I appreaciate those statistics and good advices of yours, arlalik. At least I know that god is not against me. I don't know if players here are better, because most of them made a mid size bet right at the beginning and seems to maintain such betting style till the end. There are also a few who play by Wong's strategy and I can spot them easily because their playing strategy is similar to mine. However, having one or two of "wong" players on the table is not a problem, instead what I am afraid of is that the players here in general are more aggressive in their betting cause they are given more chips ($1000 to start with compared to $500 at other casino). Even if I lead by a max bet, they can bet max and double down at the same time and beat me. In other casino where everybody is given $500, if I have more than half a max bet lead on the last three or two hands, I feel very confident advancing to the next round, but at this casino, even a max bet lead on the last hand still has me worried. Most of the time I win, I win at casino where players are given $500. Psychologically, I think when people are given less money, they are more afraid of being kicked out early, thus if they lose one big bet, they are pretty much done. Whereas in a game where people are given more chips, even if they lose a max bet, they can push another max bet out and regain their ground.
My % Mr Darklord your post made me go back and look on my records as far as my final table results Your success rate of 25% to 30% is something that would be hard to accomplish over a longer period of final table results I check my records and here they are Keep in mind all these tournaments that I have listed were multi table tournaments that required at least winning 2 rounds others were up to 4 and 5 rounds to get to a final table There are some players who will play in a 12 player tournament that has 2 tables of 6 and advances 3 from each table to the finals. I have never played in that format but if I did I would not list it as a final table appearance. Unless of course GSN wanted to know how many Finals I had been in :joker: In the year 2003 Tournament played 147 Final Tables 25 which equals 17 % In the year 2004 Tournaments played 84 Final Tables 14 which equals 16.6 % In the year 2005 Tournaments played 26 Final Tables 6 which equals 23 % Over all 17.1 % As you can see my numbers are pretty consistent over the last 3 years The only thing that has changed is my ability to play in them as the numbers of tournaments played have steadily decreased in the last 3 years. I hope some other player's here would reveal their results so the new players can fully understand the numbers of this crazy game that we all love, live ,sleep, eat and drink for Here's to varaince :cheers: Joep2
But have you made money? ...because that's the bottom line isn't it? I hope you don't think this an impertinent question Joep and obviously I wouldn't expect you to tell us exact figures but have you won more money than you have lost in tournament BJ? What do you think a 'break even' final table rate might be? Ok I realise that there are lots of different payout structures but what's your best guess? I don't know who the best tournament BJ player is but what do you expect their final table rate is? It would be really great if there were more stats on TBJ and players win/final table rates etc. so that us newbies can put things into perspective. Cheers Reachy
I've been playing Blackjack tourney for 10 months. I play about 4 to 5 times a week and on average, I make a profit of between $1000 - $1200 per month after I deduct tips and buyin and rebuy expenses. There are a couple months, I even make more than this, $3000, I think. The recent two months is just really bad at the casino I talked about ealier. For the other casino I am doing fine this month because I makes 2th place 3 times and 4th place 1 time. But since I am doing bad in this one particular casino, I sort of break even.
Tourney Pro: You've got it licked, with that return. Stay away from that particular casino for a while. Three grand a month and not barred, like NORM, shoooooot.
Regression to the mean Good job on starting off with such success, darklord. I remember a post several months ago, maybe yours, on % to the final table and most agreed that 25%-30% is above the norm. In a statistical sense, it could be as simple as regression to the mean. The more your play, the more likely your win/loose % will move towards the averages. It gets tough to maintain a hot streak, so dont get down on yourself. As far as what can you do to change your loosing streak? .... Stop playing at that particular casino or go buy a nice yellow jacket :laugh: Good luck on changing the luck Stacks
I made it today! Well, it gets better today. I change my playing strategy a little (more patience) and focus more and manage to get to 3rd place today. It almost seems as if I was going to win 1st place cause I was table chip leader on the last hand (not by much), but the disadvantage is that I have to bet first, so I put a max bet out and to my relief, everybody put a max bet out except one guy who leaves a quarter chip more than me. The end result, the dealer wipes everyone, but pays the guy with the most chip out and push with another player. Well, I am happy with my $300 3rd place because at least, it helps me to regain my confidence a little and it's a sign that my luck is getting back to normal Thank you all for your advices. I think it changes me a little regarding my strategy and expectation.
