I don’t want to rehash the luck versus skill question AGAIN – but for any of the newer members that want to have fun reading two diametrically opposing viewpoints here is the link: http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2207&highlight=skill+versus+luck and another viewpoint on skill and luck: http://www.blackjacktournaments.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1196&highlight=skill+versus+luck What I want to discuss is psychology and the cards. Now bear with me on this one ok? I’ve been keeping detailed records of my play for some time now. Thanks to Archie I went and put the numbers into a form that allows me to better appreciate what I’ve been doing and I’ve found some interesting findings. For example there are certain days that I would play and not win any SNG’s at all. Other days I would win 3 out of 4 games I played. The same thing I noticed with the MTT that I played in. The times that I’ve placed have been “grouped” or bunched together. Then there is a dry spell, followed by another grouping. What really got me to thinking about this was a recent SNG that I was playing with some other players here on TBJ.com. I was in the middle of a $10 SNG when the first hand on the “new” tourney popped up and BAM I went 25,000 on the first hand! I was livid! As luck would have it I won the first hand and I’m 25,000 ahead of the other players who all think I’ve lost my mind. Going back and forth between this game and the $10 SNG I continued. I tried one of my extremely aggressive negative progressions and by hand 6, I had blown my $25,000 chip lead and was actually BR3! I got lucky on EH1, and regained the lead. Once the $10 SNG was over I started to concentrate on this other table, using correlation and Wong techniques. In the end it came down to me and another player 1-1 for 8 hands. In the end I won that SNG because as much as I would LOVE to say it was skill I just got much better cards than he did. I have to admit this – that other player was right. I betted terrible and won that SNG in spite of myself! According to this other player I was a donkey – he was right! I nearly blew a huge advantage because I was distracted. However, when I was able to concentrate on heads up play with this player I “usually” rise to the occasion. Now my question is this – are there certain players that we have a psychological edge over or who have an edge over us – or is it all in my mind? Secondly am I crazy to think that there are certain times, biorhythms, etc., when you’re just going to get 14 & 16 while everyone else gets the 19 & 20’s with the dealer showing a face card?
Psychology (and Psychosis) As much as we humans are determined to find the patterns in everything and try and exploit them, my guess, fgk, is that: A. You are simply observing in your records the normal random results pattern that anyone with your same skill level would experience, and possibly, B. That your sample size is also too small to be an accurate predictor of even your overall win (or table advance or cash) rate. I, too, keep records and sometimes see "bunched" results, but I also see one-off positive results appearing in some sequences. I think if you look closely at your records and/or keep them for longer you will see the same thing. So don't head to the "voodoo psychosis zone" on us fgk... However, I think you bring up an interesting point in regards to the psychology of the game although to my mind the example you provided seems unrelated to anything psychology-driven. There is something to this though. One example would be the practice of profiling players based on their past play tendencies. Although never totally reliable, this can be useful in some situations I think. One can for sure employ a little psychology in trying to guess a player's secret bet. Knowing something about the player can help at times. Are we talking about helping make 75%-more-successful decisions? No. 10%? Maybe, maybe more at times with certain players you know well. In live tourney play, more possible uses of psychology open up via identifying "BJT tells," such as they may be identifiable and exploitable. I'd love to hear anyone else's thoughts on this interesting subject. Thanks for bringing it up fgk...
Very interesting post Thanks to FGK and Sabrejack for bringing up this subject, and for your input. I have been toying with the psych aspects of bjt also. I think most BJ players follow a math approach to the game. Most of us cut our teeth on it, even when others did the math for us. Good poker players rely heavily on math also I am sure. Not being a poker player, I still believe this must be true. I have always wondered, though, about the additional psych advantage a good poker player might bring to the game. It seems to be a larger factor in poker. Obviously I am not speaking to the "pokies" that we encounter in the freerolls. There was a previous thread on this subject. It involved Hollywood. I can't find it right now, and it really didn't seem to have legs, as I recall. I would be very interested to hear other BJT members address the psych component in tournament play. Hopefully this will happen without waking the voodoo types or the trend analysis guy. LOL Thanks again for starting this thread.
Psych-out from HD Thought I'd refresh this thread with a little comment from Hollywood Dave on this subject (interview excerpt courtesy playubt.com). I agree with your observations HD, and shame on anyone who follows your bad advice or ignores the good--they should know their statistics better! Any further comment on this subject? "Q: Does "reading" other players play a factor in EBJ tournaments like it does in poker? HD: I have always been a big believer in the psychology of blackjack. In poker, you have to put other players on a range of possible hands. In blackjack, you're putting other players on a range of potential bets, so that you can make the best bet accordingly, which is why when you're out of position and acting before someone, the psychology of the game becomes so important. I'm constantly asking myself, how aggressive is this player being? Will he realize he can make a big catch-up bet here? What are his betting patterns? How desperate a situation does he think he's in? On top of that, I'm constantly talking at the tables. People often think I'm just trying to distract them—which can certainly be the case—but far more often I'm just trying to get into their heads and see if I can get talk them into (or out of) certain bets and decisions. It's amazing how often I can tell a player the exact mathematical odds of a situation and why making a specific bet or decision is the perfect play—only to see him do something else because he thinks I must be messing with him. Then, when someone realizes I'm actually telling them the best way to beat me and a really close situation comes up, I'll give them bad advice that just sounds good—and laugh when they take it."
