Ok to feed the flames on the issue, get this one. I was watching Sabresport I think it was (I am really losing my mind Joep) playing on UBT tonight and he had a 20 (two face cards) and hit dd by mistake on critical hand. I am not sure exactly how he did that knowing how the software works. Anyway, he winds up pulling an ace! I think the dealer wound up with 20, cleaned the table. Now is that luck or skill?
Possible Boxed Card Pat its to late to worry about losing your mind ,you and I have been without one for a while :laugh: The dangerous ones are those that have lost theirs minds and don't realize it. Can you think of who I'm thinking of ? You and I have already made the proper adjustments I believe you already know the answer to your question Unless they the next card out of the shoe was BOXED Joep
THAT was luck, but the rest... It was Sabresport/Sabrejack (Hi Pat!) I'll add more detail for anyone interested because it is also a good story from the “Never Give Up” file: BR1 has 300K, I am BR4 at 50K. Others somewhere between me and the chip leader. All (except one fainter-hearted soul) are cranking out the max bets (25K). After all, that’s how BR1 got there. But I noticed he was a bit of a wildcat bettor. He’d double down on everything he could, not just the common-in-BJTs 10,10 split vs. 6 and maybe 11 vs. A. No sir, this guy was a double down monster, all the way from the slightly edgier 9 vs. 10 to crazy plays like splitting 9s against a 7. Trouble is, he’d been making them all! The “luck” started to swing my way though and I decided to play aggressive on bets (i.e max) but more conservatively in play strategy than BR1. I’d split 10s, but only against 5s and 6s. I wouldn’t double 11 v. A and so on. He kept up crazy, risky doubling plays and gradually started to fade. Along the way, I got two BJs (in a row no less) and my personal favorite play of all time that PT is referring to: I’m 10,10 against dealer 6. I mean to split, but accidentally hit double instead. Oops, 50K now in serious peril! Dealer draws two more cards for a table-crushing 21, actually. All except for me, though. My “double down” is revealed: An Ace and I push, saving a loss of 50K! In the end, I exalt (OK, not exalt maybe, but it was good) in comeback bliss cruising into final hand with about 320K vs. former leader's 180K. Never happens like that on the final hand in the $100K money tournament, but I guess the message is… NEVER give up! Oh yeah, and it's luck PLUS skill... Good cards, Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)
luck here Sabresport - Can I ask, how did you know that luck was swinging your way? What indicators were there? Were you hitting stiff hands and getting good hands rather than busting? Did you start getting dealt good made hands from the off? How did the game change to make you believe that your luck was changing also? Was it a gut feeling? I'm interested because if we can spot luck indicators (if such things exist) then we can adjust our games accordingly to take account of them thus further increasing our skill. Were you lucky to be playing a wildcat bettor with little or no coherent strategy? Were you lucky with your DD or was the other player unlucky? Is good luck for one player bad luck for another? If so are they equivelent and if they are is luck overall neutral in a game? Just ramblings... On another note you refer to a "faint-hearted soul" who wasn't betting max when all about him were. Is this not one of Wongs basic tournament strategy plays - contrarian betting? You are more likely to eat into a lead if you do the opposite to the chip leader than if you mimic him. I appreciate that this is very simplistic and without knowing more about your game I wouldn't like to comment further on this particular play. I will however say that I have used this strategy quite successfully several times at bet21 recently, especially in the latter stages where there were fewer opponents. It doesn't work if the chip leader minimum bets of course but to my suprise many of my recent opponents with 2Xmax+ bet leads over me have continued to bet $10K, $20K, max, and simply by betting the minimum I have caught up with them. It also works well if you are BR3 and BR1 and BR2 are having a dog-fight. They often forget about you and beat each other up with big bets then all of a sudden there you are, in the mix. Of course as soon as they realise what you're up to (if they ever do) you have to start chasing them. All good fun. Cheers Reachy
Faint Hearted Bettor I'm one of the "faint hearted bettors." Using the minimum bet strategy and waiting for the wildcats to bomb out I'm winning TEC's at a rate of about 1/hr. Do you win faster than that by maxing out?
Somewhere in the middle... That's gotten me a rate of 3 TEC's p/hr, but things change in the tournament. Many (not all) of those Wildcat Bettors become much better competition.
Agreed To get the TEC, it does work to bet the min and let everyone bust. I actually won six in a row last night that way. Dealer hitting blackjack on first hand twice also helped. I think in only one case did we get to hand 8 and surviving that, I was heads up with someone who was about three max bets ahead of me and he kept firing away while I crept closer. He finally got frustrated and went all in on a dd dealer hit 21. As far as tournament play, you can pretty well read your table after about three hands. Those used to going in big tend to lose their patience with the smaller bets. I almost advanced even though I was just under needing to double my bankroll on elimination hand to pass the player just ahead of me or get a swing. I split my bankroll and fortunately he matched my bet playing after me, which gave me the chance for a swing. Unfortunately we both got hard 17s so only choice was to DD for me. I did and he stood (his mistake, he should have dd too...difference between luck and skill). Dealer got 18 so he busted. When my card was revealed it was small, the guy next to me about passed out, but it was a five, one to many. I wondered afterwards if I should have tried surrendering. I think I had enough to pass him if he lost his full bet (maybe not, which is why I didn't think of it). That would have been really cool if I surrendered and he stood and then lost. All he had to do was mimick my play. That would add a new definition to "surrender trap"! PS: I remember now that play (surrender) was actually tried on me on a couple of occasions, once on the cruise and once in the qualifiers for UBT in Vegas. It was amazing to sit there and realize that all you had to do was surrender your hand to win! Congrats to all who have gotten into St Kitts tourneys so far. Hope to get there with you soon!
With no entry fee, the key question about Wonging v Wildcatting is which yields the greater hourly win rate. That's likely to be Wildcatting I'd say, especially if you are playing three tables at a time, like some people!
I find that Wildcatting is most effective to win TECs, but I will bet min when it is contrarian to most of the table. Last night, I went min with 5 all-ins and the dealer BJ hand 1. The only other player bet 1K. On hand 2, he bet 24K and I matched him, saving 500. Dealer BJ again, and I won the tourney on hand 2. Can anyone beat that?
If you bust out on the first or second hand, you've lost very little time and can get right back on the horse, so to speak. If you've survived a hand or two of max betting, your likely to be in a good position to draw breath and play out the rest of the tourney more strategically. (But no, I certainly can't beat that. I think roud 6 has been my quickest result.)
WOW! Hand 2?!? I've won by hand 5, but unless someones won on the opening hand, I think you've got the record!
Wildcats I have tried Colins way, but I am convinced wonging it gives you a better chance. Very seldom does the dealer just dump and all you have to do is get past hand 8 if it goes that far. Once you get heads up you have a real advantage since most don't know tournament strategy at all. Just do whatever works for you.
Hi Reachy--Great to stimulate some debate... Thought I'd weigh in on your thoughts: On "luck:" I am one of those who does not believe in luck. i.e. "Luck" is no more than the natural variance occurring amongst random events which brings the better results sometimes (and worse at other times, blah, blah, blah). So I had no feeling that anything was occurring. The way I wrote my bit perhaps made it sound as though I am a "believer" in such things, but I am not... What I meant was, essentially, that some "good" variance seemed to be coming my way. However, I unequivocally approach each and every hand with the expectation that my chances will only be based on the cards I receive and their relative probability of success vs. the dealer card. I do not vary betting based on any feeling or the concept of a swing or really anything, since there is no relevant info available to a player in this setting that I am aware of (although I am keen to discover any that may exist!). Each hand is an independent event, unrelated to those before and after it, in any system in which new shuffle occurs each hand, like at UB/ B21/UBT. Re the wildcat bettor: I think if you can typecast a player's style, it can be useful info. In this case, seeing what he or she did, I adapted my play to take advantage. Some players (the smartest, I believe) vary their playing style depending on other players' strategies. Re contrary betting: This is absolutely a good strategy (not the least because Wong says so), and I use it often myself, but I've noticed that the more ploppies, the more wildcat betting. And the problem for a contrary bettor in this environment is that while at the beginning of a round, it is I think a good strategy to bet contrary, but it gets less effective later on as BRs vary. Several big bettors going through multiple rounds generally gain traction and often 1-2 will build a huge BR. Note that my comments relate specifically to a "one winner only" table, as contrary betting works better in a 2 or 3 advance game. But it does not get you far when someone has 300K to your 25K! The reality is, of course, one strategy will work better in one game, and another in another, so maybe the luck is when you pick the right strategy for your set of opponents when you know nothing about them going in, which is often the case right now with so many new people! Final note to add to some talk on this site: I am very happy to see the many amazing opportunities in BJT right now. Minor problems aside, these new developments (sites, TV, more awareness, globetrotting tours, etc., etc.) are very, very cool to see... Good cards (and strategies!)--Sabresport (AKA Sabrejack)
