In hand 20, br1 & 3 won max bets, br2 pushed, br 4 lost. Bank rolls, bets & cards for final hand are as follows in order from the button. Min bet 100, max 2500. Payouts are 1st 50000, 2nd 12000, 3rd 8000, 4th 6000. Bottom three had already busted out. br1: 5550, bet 2500. dealt 9,5 no mulligan br4: 4900, bet 2000, dealt 10,9 no mulligan br3: 5050, bet 2500, dealt 9,8 mulligan br2: 5450, bet 2500, dealt 10,10 mulligan Dealer shows 10. br 1: doubles gets 4, stand on 18 br 4: stands 19 br 3: doubles catches 9, uses mulligan gets A stands 18 br 2 (me): ??? Let me know what I should have done & I'll tell you what happened.
congrats again! i'm not one of the'' number guys" and not sure how to factor mulligan, this is my first thought, if dealer makes 18,19 or 20 you got it! a bust 17 or 21 you have 2nd, w/dealer 10 up, i would stand pat. this was a 38k decision (1st or 2nd) glad you did the right thing.
Sweet William, I think you may have missed that BR3 doubled before using his mulligan to get 18. In that case, leilahay will either finish 1st or 3rd by standing. She also wins the tourney by standing if the dealer gets 21, since she has everyone low. Having said that, from the point of view of winning the tournament, my first thought is also to stand. Hitting (even with a mulligan) doesn't help. You already have the best hand. Doubling does not seem like much of an option because of the low chance that you would survive (14.79% with mulligan) Splitting would most likely end up in an overall loss or a push, making it likely worse than standing. Surrendering doesn't buy much. You already have the low on everyone Using the mulligan will result in a worse hand for standing, a stiff hand for doubling or a blackjack. Still not very helpful. By standing, she wins the tournament on a dealer 18, 19, 20 or 21 and finishes 3rd on a dealer 17 or bust. That's about a 64.9% chance vs the ten. In terms of maximizing prize money, with the given (top heavy) prize structure, I think that going for the win by standing might be the right play. It has an EV of around $35,260. Congratulations on your win!
After getting back to the room and redoing it all night, I completely concur with gronburg. Grit my teeth and stand, praying for dealer 18, 19, 20, 21. Of course, with the immense pressure, and thirty seconds, that isn't what I did. With the false security of the mulligan and seeing the doubles on either side of me, I split the 10s, inviting total disaster. In retrospect that gained me absolutely nothing (except the awe of the crowd) Since it was obviously my turn to succeed, however, I pulled a ten on each. The dealer had a 10 under, and the game was mine.
As my signature (tagline) on this forum says: The skill is to have yourself in position to take advantage of Lady Luck when she smiles on you. Sounds to me like you became proof of it. Great job! :cheers:
Sim Results Although there seems to be no disagreement in the above, I ran a simulation for confirmation. The results are confirmed. For winning the tournamernt: Stand: 64.95% Mulligan an Initial Card: 55.72% Split: 52.96% Hit: 44.34% Surrender: 40.84% Double (any amount): 9.42%
As I said--split was stupid and I realized it after the fact. I can only plead the pressure of the moment. I got lucky.
