Ken I understand you cannot disclose the final results from the World Series of Blackjack, but can you tell me who win's the Mr. Congeniality award? Hollywood Dave episole #2 or Ashwin Patel episole #3? Both seem very nice...lol! What about worst bone head play? James Grosjean hand #30 episole #1 only betting a $1,000 and costing him from winning the first episole. or Bradley Peterson hand #30 episole #3 giving away a lock on 2nd place with his $5,000 bet and coming in third. I have to ask you one other question were you licking your chops as you saw the experts play? Episole #1 Regina, episole #2 MIT - Mike & Ken Eninger, episole #3 Micky Rossa have been the only ones that have played desent tournament Blackjack. I enjoy playing tournaments and feel good about my style of play, but after seeing the first three episole I feel like I will be in the top 50 if these are the top twenty-five players around...lol.
Actually, Brad Peterson's final bet has some merit to it. Micky has position on Brad. If Brad bets small enough to lock out Bobby, Micky should match the bet. Now, with the surrender option available, Brad is well below 50% chance of taking first. If Brad busts, Micky can surrender for the win. If Brad stands on a stiff, Micky can surrender for a likely win. If Brad gets a hand, Micky can double down or play to tie Brad. All in all, Brad is in quite a bind. On the other hand, by betting $5000, he scares Micky into not matching his bet. By giving Bobby an outside chance of catching him, he guarantees a win as long as he wins his bet, a 44% shot. Of course, it didn't work out for him, when Bobby got yet another BJ. In addition, Bradley made himself look sporting by giving Bobby a chance. Overall, I think it was unorthodox, but it might have been the right move.
Mr Congeniality? Well, since Ashwin made an early exit, you've seen him for the last time. Hollywood Dave on the other hand will be back for more fun. At least Dave doesn't pee on things. There, I said something nice about him. Worst play so far? Definitely Grosjean's $1000 blunder. And, as you note, the play has been pretty weak throughout. Of course that's nothing new if you've been watching tournaments. Excellent point about Bradley's final bet, toonces, and one I hadn't really considered. I think you're absolutely right, that's Bradley's best shot. The question really comes down to how likely Micky is to not match his bet anyway. If Bradley thinks Micky is likely to closely match his bet anyway, then a smaller bet is far superior, but it's in Micky's best interest to take guaranteed first low here. So, with a smart player behind him, I like Bradley's bet. I like $4100 even more, but that's getting really picky. I'll post a few more points under toonce's thread for Episode 3.
A bird in the hand. Toonces, in Bradley's postion going into the last hand he is tied for the lead with Micky and has a lock on 2nd place with a chance at 1st. He should have bet 100 with a surrender to guarantee 2nd even if Bobby hits a double down in front of him, and forces Micky into the following. Micky's options would be: 1) Matches Bradleys bet and hope for a swing and locking 2nd. 2) Micky goes for the win and bets $300 to cover my possible double down. Even if he lose's he has a lock for 2nd. Final Hand #30 Bobby $10,525 bet $5,000 Cat $ 5,800 bet $5,000 Bradley $22,600 bet $5,000 Micky $22,600 bet $ 400 By betting the $5,000 (really anything over 100) on hand 30 Bradley opened the door for Bobby and Bobby walked on in and cut Bradley out of minimum $2,500 for the round and any chance of playing in the finals for $100,000. Bradley could have even bet up to $4,550 on the last hand and still covered by $25 over a possible blackjack by Bobby, which was the case. In every tournament I have ever played you dream of being ahead two max. bets over the closest player next to you going into the last hand. Bradley had it and gave it away.
ye of little faith Oh, Ken. If you keep flirting like this, people will REALLY start to talk... -dave.
Ah, but he was not 2 max bets over the closest player. He was tied with the closest player, and only 1 gets the guaranteed seat in the finals. Based on S Yama's post in the Ep. 1 Thread, the EV of advancing to the Final round is 42K, and the ev of advancing to the wild card round is 8.5K. That means that: 1st = $52K 2nd = $13.5K 3rd = $3K (assuming the button is random for a playoff, I assume a tie for 1st is worth 32.75K) By Brad betting Max, he knows he can lock up the high, since Micky would likely take the offer of low rather than also risk coming in 3rd. If Brad bets high and Micky bets low, Brad gets (percentages are estimates): 1st 44% - P(Brad winning) Tie - 3% - P (Dealer gets BJ with A up and Brad and Micky insure for the tie, or Brad and Micky tie the dealer) 2nd 46% - P(Brad loses, but Bobby loses his forced DD) 3rd 7% - P(Brad loses and Bobby wins his forced DD or hits BJ) EV = .44*52K+.03*32.75 + .46*13.5K+.07*3K = 30,280 If Brad bets 100 and Micky matches the 100 bet, Brad's chance of winning his bet is severely restricted. He can't risk hitting a stiff, since if he busts, he guarantees Micky 1st place by surrendering. If Brad surrenders, Micky can choose to surrender for the tie if he is in a bad spot, or play out the hand for the win if he is in a good spot. If Brad gets dealt a 20 or 21, Micky can still double down for the win. 1st 15% - P(Brad wins (or surrenders) and Micky loses) tie 45% - P(Brad and Micky both win or both lose or both surrender) 2nd 40% - P(Brad surrenders and Micky wins or Brad loses and Micky surrenders or wins or both win and Micky doubled down) EV = .15*52K + .45*32.75K + .40*13.5K = 27,940 If my percentage assumptions are not too far off (can someone run the simulation?) Brad improves his EV by 2K, and his TV image as a reckless playboy to boot (which can never hurt) by betting the max. Note that for this gambit to work, Brad has to convince Micky to take the low rather than matching Brad's bet. If Brad bets something high, but safe, like $4100, he risks Micky realizing that it is mostly safe, and matching it. I doubt Micky would have figured it out, but he could have.
I didn't like Bradleys bet, but he had the B#*@'s to make it. Toonces, I am sorry I meant that Bradley was over double the next player to avoid advancing. Bradley went for it; I give him credit for that. He could have played it safe for a sure 2nd, but went for the win instead. I didn't like the play, but until I start paying his entry fees or getting a percentage of his win's I really doubt he is worried what I think or anyone else does. I am happy to see he was on line explaining his play; I really give him credit for that. I knew he didn't miss the play on hand 30 to hold on to 2nd, (you can hear him telling Bobby he was giving him a chance). Every player has to play his/her game; if he had won everybody would be talking about some other play today. What I didn't like was, not losing the $2,500 on that round, but risking the chance at the $100,000. Now in the finals I would have gone for it or if I am lucky enough to be in the Hilton Million II final table I'll risk the $40,000 2nd place for a chance at the $1,000,000. In the finals is when I am willing to go for it.
Explain one thing to me? Toonces above you stated that Bradley would have a 44% chance of winning by betting high. If that is the case wouldn't betting only $100 and taking the low give him a 56% chance of winning?
A chance of losing the bet... ...but not winning the table as my advisory had position behind me on that hand and, if we tied, on the first playoff hand.
Zero percintage Bradley I understand Micky has position on you and like in one of my earlier post "your the one playing so play it your way" you elected to go for the high. I on the other hand would have gone low giving me a lock on 2nd and hope for a swing with Micky or my win with Micky pushing, either way I still could have won. I don't know the exact math for every play, but I do know: 1) 100 % is what you had to make min. $5,000 and advance. 2) 0 % is what Bobby had of advancing with you betting only $1,450 or less. 3) 0 % is what you have of playing for the $100,000 1st place after losing. The above three is what I look at in this situation, like in all tournaments you should play to advance until in the finals then play to win. Bobby maybe a nice guy, but I would have cut him out in a second. Giving him a chance cost you possibly $102,500. I am sorry I not trying to beat you up or make you feel worst then you already do, I am just posting what I would have done and why.
No. 56% is the chance of Micky losing ASSUMING that he doesn't surrender. In addition, in most of the cases that Micky loses, Brad will also lose, creating a tie and a disadvantageous playoff out of position for Brad. Plus, unless Brad finds himself with a made hand, Micky will likely surrender and depend on the dealer to make his hand. If both Brad and Micky take the low, Brad only wins if: - Brad wins or ties AND Micky loses or surrenders - Brad wins AND Micky ties - Brad surrenders AND Micky chooses not surrender, yet loses. Whereas: If Brad busts, Micky surrenders and wins. If Brad stands on a stiff, Micky can either surrender and be a favorite to win, or if he already is a bigger favorite, can play out his hand. If Brad gets to a made hand, Micky can play out his hand if he is a favorite, or double down for the win, if it is more likely to work. If Brad surrenders, Micky can play out his hand, if he is a favorite, or surrender as well, if he is an underdog.
But? Toonces, if Bradley was playing for one spot to advance in the tournament I would have made the same bet that he did, but he wasn't! He cost himself $2,500 in that round and a chance at the $100,000 first place. You can come back with he would still have to win the 6th round (with all five 2nd place finishers) and you would be right, but he would still be alive in the tournament to do that! How can placing a bet that risk putting you out of the tournament be the right play? Once again I am not saying my play would be the right way, but at least I would have an extra $2,500 in my poket and a chance at another $100,000. If I am wrong I'll play it wrong everyday and twice on Sunday's. Just send me my money...LOL
