need help for tournament strategy

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by privador, Oct 1, 2005.

  1. privador

    privador New Member

    I will participate in my home country championchips.
    Conditions are next:

    There are 14 players
    tournament consist of 4 rounds
    entrance buy in =0
    rebuy cost 1000$
    u can do 3 rebuy during every round(rebuy goes to the casino not prize fund)
    round consist of 21 hands.
    You will be given 2000 chips
    U can do rebuy if u have ziro chips or u dont have chips for double,splitting or incurance
    prize fund1-st 50k$,2-nd 20k$,3-nd 10k$
    best team(7 players get 21k$) i take as a random +EV3k$
    7 best players get additionally anther tourn entramce what is worth +EV 7k$


    1-st round


    every player plays independenly against the dealer (chips amount is classified against other players)
    and the results are opened after all players have played


    2-nd,3-nd,4-nd round
    players play traditional bj tournament.
    NB!First 7 players leave after 2 round.It depends on 1-st round chips+2-nd round chips






    So the main question about 1-st round?
    How agressivly ,passively i should play?
    Which should my chip BK target?

    Thx for any advise
     
  2. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    A couple of questions:

    You say that each player plays independently against the dealer. Does that mean you will have no information about how the other players did?

    You say that "First 7 players leave after 2 round. It depends on 1-st round chips+2-nd round chips"

    Please clarify... Does that mean that only the worst 7 players of the initial 14 continue and play rounds 3 & 4? I don't understand.
     
  3. privador

    privador New Member

    thx for answer

    1)You are correctI dont have information about how the other players finished.
    The result are revealed before the second round...(nice strategy for the casino to collect rebuy money i think)

    2)1-st and 2-nd round is like seperate tournament compered with 3 and 4 round
    Your total score after 2-nd round should be among first 7 players to go final (3+4 round).And when whe round 3 begins all stacks will be 2000.(so there is no diffrence do u end 2-nd round 1-st place or 7-st place)

    Main goal is to get final among 7 players.
    I said the 1-st round conditions before
    2-nd round 14 players are divided into 2 table
    1-st rounda and 2-nd round stacks are summed

    In other words u have to make stack(its not like face to face game)

    For example if i do 1-st round 7kchips i have so huge advantage compered to other.If i get 0 2-nd round i probably go to the final.(7k+0k=7k)

    Or i get 1-st round 0 chips(my rebuys are destroyd) so then i have to push 2-nd round..
     
  4. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Here's my current understanding:
    Round 1 is played individually, but the results are publicly available before round 2. Then, in round 2, you'll be at a table with half the field.

    After rounds 1 and 2, the top 7 out of 14 players advance, while the bottom 7 are eliminated.

    In this scenario, even with the rebuys, I don't think you'll have to win much to be among the top 7. After all, half the field is advancing. With no rebuys available, just retaining your original bank would usually advance here. However, with rebuys available, that's likely to fall a little short, but not much.

    I predict that a 2-round score of 4500 will be among the top 7.
    Just to be safe, I'd shoot for a 2-round total of $5000.
    I would try to turn my initial $2000 into $3000. Then, during the second round you can hope to coast along with minimum bets. Obviously, if you feel during the second round that you won't advance, you can take risk again, though you might not have enough information to accurately assess that.

    Hope this helps, and I'd love to hear the final results from the first two rounds. Good luck!
     
  5. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    more info needed

    This is very interesting tournament.
    I would definitely shoot for at least doubling my bankroll in the first session, and try to have 4,000 at the end of the first session, assuming that I understand the specified conditions correctly.
    What are bets limits, especially max bet?
    Providor, would you please tell us exactly the prize structure?
    $50K, $20K, $10K for first through third place, and additionally all top seven players get $3K each?
    How did you arrive with additional $7K coming from participation in next tournament? Is it $7K for each and every "top seven" player, or is it total (like a free one thousand dollars entry)?
    I see a few interesting strategy’s angles to this tournament, but first let’s get the numbers right.

    S. Yama
     
  6. privador

    privador New Member

    answers

    a)You will be given 2000 chips.max bet is 1000
    b)1-st get 50k 2-bd 20k 3-d 10k
    addition to that there will be produced virtual 2 teams 7 person vs 7 person
    winner team will be awarded 21k(chips are summed up)(i take it as a 1,5k +EV per person).Results are final after 2-nd round.

    the players who were able to get final to the 3-rd round will get automataically diffrent tournament buy in what is worth 7k(take it as a bonus)

    I other words final table virtual buy in costs (50+20+10)/7+7k=18,4k



    My thoughts:
    I try to use all re-buys(maximum 3) if need to
    in the 1-st round i try to do 5000 chips
    I suspect that other players are not passive
    Or gradually before 1-st rebuy i try to do 5000 ,before 2-nd i try to do 5000 as well,before 3-nd i try to do 4000 and after rebuys i try to do 3000 chips
     
  7. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    score/gains/cost

    I was beginning to suspect that this is a fabrication - but for the moment I will play along.
    Actually, the consistent peculiarity makes the post believable, but purposed or personal fragmentation makes it unappealing. I don’t care if it is written in proper English if the author’s native language is not English, but what makes it really hard to comprehend is the mixing of incomplete facts with subjective analysis.

    Do they randomly select and assign players into two groups and the group with more chips after playing two rounds receives bonus of $21K ($3K to each member of the group), but seven players with the best scores get to play in the “final” for the top three cash prizes? Yes?
    If so, then, for the average player the expected payout, expressed in thousands of dollars, would be
    [3+(50+20+10)/7]/2=7.214
    To calculate the Expected Value of the tournament we need to deduct from the expected payout the average cost of reentries and add possible rewards of future tournaments that participation in this tournament would entitle us to.
    Of course, the EV for player with good playing plan and knowledge of tournament strategy would be much higher.

    You would want to figure out how much you would be willing to pay (in form of reentry fees) for a chance to improve your score. This directly relates to the size of the EV.
    One way to understand process better is to exaggerate the situation.
    If the value of this tournament was one million dollars for the average player then having score in the top seven would be worth two millions. It should be worth three millions if you get to be invited for the next one, or maybe even more if there would be more tournaments. So, even if you needed to reenter three times in both rounds, to be almost guaranteed top seven scores, which could cost you up to $6,000 , your expected value still would be “almost four millions”.
    Giving up any chance of being the top seven would be very costly. Resignation of even one percent would mean giving up $40K in profits. The cost of reentries becomes insignificant and your right way of play is to maximize you chances to be in the top seven players. Your goal would not be a fixed number as you chances for achieving “the goal” would change based on you initial results. The bigger the EV- the closer you need to play to maximizing your score without regard to reentries.

    Back to reality. Notice that the higher the goal, the more likely you would need to reenter.
    Let’s compare the difference in obtaining final goal of 5,000 and 6,000 and the related cost and rewards.
    First, let’s see what happens when you try to shoot for the total of 6,000. In the first round you would try to get to 4,000 and make no bets in the second round. Or you would try to get to 6,000 in the second round if you rebought three times in the first round and busted out. You have almost fifty percent chance of getting to 4K without rebuys, then another 50% with your first and subconsequent rebuys.
    (The numbers would be slightly smaller because you may end up in a “limbo” not being able to achieve your goal or bust out – this is very important but not “huge” and the main mechanics remain the same. At this time let’s assume that you would be able to resolve this within the 21 hands you get to play in every round.)
    You achieve the goal of 4,000 with one rebuy 25% of the time for total chance of success of 75%; and so on.
    Your chances of success, with three rebuys in the first round, are 93.8% at the average cost of $688 and total chances (reaching the goal using reentries in both rounds) are 98.8% at the cost of $920.
    Setting goal at 5,000 (3,000 in the first round and then betting minimum in the second round, or going for 5,000 in the second round if you busted out in the first round) would be: success 99.8% at the cost of $490.
    By having the goal at 5,000 instead of 6,000 you would increase your chance of reaching the goal by one percent and it would be $430 cheaper. But now you have to counter-balance it with a decreased chance of making the cut (top seven).
    If you increase your chances of being in the top seven (because of one thousand higher score) by only one percent (and I am certain of that, and actually think it would be a significantly higher) you regain double of what we calculated as the average payout, plus there is a value of possible future tournaments- all that for $430.

    Getting to 4,000 in the first round is also more beneficial when seeing other players’ scores makes you raise up the goal score. For example, if you determine in the middle of playing the second round that the goal is 7,000, you would have 2/3rds chance of achieving it if you ended up the first round with 4,000 and only ½ chance with score of 3,000 in the first round.

    I would be even tempted to shoot for 7,000 total score. Assuming that you bust or reach the goal, you reach it 96.6% of the time at cost of $1,263. For the score of 8,000 the numbers are 93.8% and $1,523.

    S. Yama
     
  8. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    recap

    Perhaps I used too many words and important aspects were not easy to fish out in my previous post, so here is the recap.
    1. Talk to your opponents before the play to probe their intended goals
    2. If the top seven people get to play in another tournament, and if you play right first two rounds, and are just better than average in the last two rounds -- your expected value is more than $30,000!
    3. The smaller number of players in accumulation type tournament, the bigger uncertainty of the desired score.
    4. This tournament realistically offers 6 rebuys. This can make the tournament expensive, but the rebuys are well worth it.
    5. In tournaments with lesser prizes you would not use as many rebuys, here, you should raise the aimed score (at the cost of more rebuys and slightly smaller chance of achieving it) to increase certainty of being amongst player advancing to the finals, once you reach the goal score.
    6. Try to achieve the goal as soon as possible, bet maximums. Try to reach the goal right away. Once you get there bet minimum, unless developments on the tables indicate otherwise.
    7. Good luck! (Always needed)

    S. Yama
     
  9. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    one tricky play

    Privador, there is one tricky play you could use if you can afford multirebuys.
    Bet the minimum and bust it no-matter-what, even a blackjack. I hate wasting one hand but this way you will have $1,900 in your bankroll. In the second hand bet one thousand and double or split a bit more than basic strategy tells you to. (About 20% of all hands would qualify for such a doubled bet.) Since you don’t have enough money for full doubled bet you will be allowed to rebuy. Now, if you win you have: your bankroll- almost 2K, your win- 2K, and the rebuy- 2K. That’s 6K and 2K in the second round for a total score of 8K, almost 100% certain to be in the top seven scores.
    If you lose the double, you still have 1,900, and if you win or lose single bet you play your normal, aggressive game.

    Having 100 less than full 2,000 bankroll will allow you to make rebuys earlier in other instances as well.

    S. Yama
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2005
  10. privador

    privador New Member

    Results

    So i finished 5-th place
    1-st round

    i played max bet 2000 all the time.1-st hand lost,second one lost,3-d one i had double oppertunity ,i won apr 8100 chips
    It cost me 3 rebuy and 3000$

    When the result was showd i was 4-th place?!
    1)16000 chips!!
    2)9000
    3)8600
    4)8100
    5)6000
    6)6000
    ...
    13)0
    14)0

    2-nd round

    i manage to get 5100 chips (0 rebuys) and i was in the final
    so total was 13200chips
    7th place had about 11500 chips,so my move to the final wasnt absolotely sure ,becouse every one used all rebuys and bet max bet and it depend on last hand.


    3-nd round

    3)All played agressively and after 3-d round i was 2-nd
    1)6500chips
    2)3200chips
    3)1200chips
    4)0
    5)0...


    4-nd and final round
    At the beginning all bet max bet until 3 zero point man got about 8000 chips
    chipleader was also 6500 chips man(total 12000)
    So i had to bet max bet and i used all my rebuys.No luck and i got 0
    and total 5-th place



    Conclusion:

    After all ,people used all rebuys(or most of them).Real BJ situatin was actually last hand that decided 1-st to 4 place.
    So my question for u ,Is there playing skill important before last hand at all?
    Or it is just luck?

    2-nd question:I played basic correctly everywhere,but i noticed that players did some basic variation.For example 1010 split against 6 ;77 split against 8,insurance and it was in the beginning as well!!!

    Ok i agree that.player could double up in certan circumstances,but im not sure of it.Does they lose in long term when they do bad decision(-EV)?
    If i play basic strategy correctly I must have edge in long term,Dont you!

    Any comments please!
     

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