Hi all, I've been playing blackjack tourneys on UB to some success for a few months now, but I never thought to see if a site like this existed. I'm interested in delving deeper into theory, I have a degree in mathematics, so concepts of probability and EV are not beyond me. I was wondering what some good resources for pre-calculated probabilities might be? I could try to come up with them on my own, but if there are lists already out there, it would be helpful. Also, I want to get your opinion on a situation that came up at a SNG the other day for me. 1st place wins $98, 2nd wins $42. 2 of us left. I have $71500 Opponent has $45500 $500 min bet. $25000 max bet. So, do I min bet and hope he can't double/split/bj, or do I bet higher to cover him doubling, and hope for no swing? And if you feel like I'm too new and just want to point me to a chart or another forum, don't feel bad, I don't mean to dumb down the conversation in here, but I do feel like I could be an asset down the line!
$20,000 is the bet here. Give up the possible swing in exchange for covering the double or split. A successful double or split is much more likely than a swing. As for probabilities, there are two useful tables over at my other site BlackjackInfo.com, which show dealer outcome probabilities and double-down outcome probabilities. I keep talking about adding a table with a lot of probabilities for player hand probabilities using different strategies, but I haven't done it yet. The tournament strategy section of that site is here: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-tournaments.php Welcome to our world, and best of luck, -Ken-
Welcome to the site Twanbon. Start in the "Bookstore" listed in the index on the left of the main page. You need Wong's book...... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/catalog/product_info.php?cPath=21&products_id=30 And Ken Smith's e-book...... http://store.esellerate.net/deepnet/kensmithebook Most of your questions are already answered in the forums. Yes, you are correct to cover the other player's dd or bj, giving him a chance to swing you.
Thanks, and yes, I incorrectly min bet and he doubled up on me, but the hand was a swing regardless; he had an obvious double and I had a stiff hand, so it wouldn't have mattered anyway. But its always nice to know the right play. As a quick question: Given a 1-on-1 single hand, with an infinite deck, what are the odds of an swing in your opponent's favor? Also, are these the kinds of answers I'll find in those books? thanks!
The odds of a player swing... Well, it depends on how much of a swing you mean. In a recent article in All-In magazine, I showed that the chances of a full swing are roughly 13%. A double-down full swing would be less likely than that. A half-swing is much more likely, and the next All-In article will address that topic.
Twanbon, You asked a good question. I would like to re-inforce what Swog recommended with the books - especially Ken Smith's e-book. In addition you might want to subscribe to All In magazine. The monthly columns concerning tournament tips by Ken Smith will be invaluable to you if you really want to learn advanced strategy. For reviewing hand by hand analysis the column by Joe Pane will really accelerate your learning curve also. Finally James Grosjean's column concerning betting, odds, ev and an assortment of other topics is recommended. Of the above resources, based on value: 1. Ken Smith's e-book 2. All In Magazine 3. Stanford Wong's CTS book
Heh, I was going to post my usual All-In subscription link, but I just checked it: http://www.shareasale.com/m-pr.cfm?merchantID=6719&userID=67375&productID=453670890 It shows "Cover Price $29.70 Our Price $43.65"!! Obviously a mistake of some sort. I'll email them about it. Keeping on top of who offers the best subscription deals on All-In is a full-time job. Every time I pick a provider, they change it up somehow.
