I won't go into all the rules yet, just what you need to know for place the best bet for the following hand. I'll re-post on Thursday with what everyone bet and what cards came out and then I'll ask how you would play out the hand. Situation: last hand round 1 of a $500,000 1st place event, winner of round 1 receives $25,000 + advances to round 2, 2nd place receives $5,000 and advance to a playoff table to try and get to round 2, 3rd place is out. Surrender is offered, 3/2 BJ, normal splits and DD's. Bet limits are $1,000 - $50,000, but $500 increments are okay over $1,000 min. (example $1,500 okay). Seat 1 - BR1 has $97,500 Seat 2 - BR3 has $76,000 Seat 3 - BR2 has $85,500 (BUTTON) As BR2 what is your best bet to try and win, yet also gives you your best chance to at least stay BR2. *NOTE: BR1 has been betting $5,000 per hand throughout the round and not a season tournament player. I'll be back on Thursday to post the actual bets and what cards came out and at that time ask how you would play out the hand as well.
Bet 12,000 With surrender available a bet of 24,000 looks OK. BR2 can pass BR1 if BR1 keeps betting 5,000 if every one wins. Also BR2 can now surrender for the low against BR3. ...............................BlueLight
Teaser 17,500 It covers BR1 if he happens to bet 5K again. You can surrender to cover BR3's push. If BR1 bets the max or 48,500 you'll have the low and can lock him out by surrendering if he surrenders.
18,500. Same reasons as Monkey but I like to bet the max available (without causing myself penalties) in endgame situations since that usually gives more options!
Bet So here bets and cards, now what how would you play out the hand. Situation: last hand round 1 of a $500,000 1st place event, winner of round 1 receives $25,000 + advances to round 2, 2nd place receives $5,000 and advance to a playoff table to try and get to round 2, 3rd place is out. Surrender is offered, 3/2 BJ, normal splits and DD's. Bet limits are $1,000 - $50,000, but $500 increments are okay over $1,000 min. (example $1,500 okay). Seat 1 - BR1 has $97,500 His bet $5,000, cards - 5, K Seat 2 - BR3 has $76,000 His bet $38,000, cards - 7, 6 Seat 3 - BR2 has $85,500 (BUTTON) My bet $17,500, cards 7, 7 Dealers up card: A Monkeystem call my bet correctly, but Leftnuts bet would have worked the same. By making this play and hoping BR1 would continue his flat betting of $5,000 I could take a 500 lead on a win/win and surrender back to take 2nd on a loss/puch against BR3. This bet also gave me the DD possibility against both BR1 and BR3 if needed.
BR3 has taken away the high, and I can't possibly realize the low, so I'd take the high back with a split. That'll give me a rough correlation with BR3 and a decent chance to at least end up in 2nd one way or another. This, of course, assumes the dealer doesn't have paint in the hole.
Insure for 3500. Prevents BR3 from taking full insurance and watching me fall below him/her if the dealer has it. Since I would have already decided that I am going to split, the lost 3500 has no effect if the BJ isn't there.
Close plays could result in varied outcomes Buying insurance for less (exactly 4,250 to 4,750) allows the player to finish second when the dealer has blackjack and this is almost a “free insurance” bet. I said almost because if the value of advancement was much, much bigger than the second place (that could happen if that was a quarterfinal), and the rules said that dealer stands on all 17s (d’s hitting s17 with Ace up makes a big difference), and BR3 had, though BR1 had not tendency to double, then no insurance and hitting might have offered a close or better value than doubling or splitting, but I doubt that was the case. After taking insurance for less you need to win a double bet (doubled down or win both split hands) to overcome BR3 winning his bet and BR1 winning his double; you would need net win of only one hand if split without taking insurance if BR3 pushed or lost and BR1 didn't win double. Chance of winning double is a few percent better than chance of winning both split hands. If you split you would have to hit the second hand to a varied total that would be determined by the outcome of the first hand. Even if you win both bets BR3 can double his bet and if won take away the first place finish from you. Thus, the most important aspect of this play becomes what kind of your play will not provoke BR3 to double. Probably splitting is the best play as in most cases you end up with at least one stiff that you don’t hit, which may prompt BR3 to just hit hoping to get a better hand than yours. Your total chances of advancing, before the dealer checks for blackjack, depending on rules and your play and BR1 and BR3 reactions, will range between as little as 8% and about 20% at best. S. Yama
Insurance boo-boo Seriously, 4,500 is what I meant to say - oops. I should never post teaser answers before the first cup of coffee. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! Remember, when pondering teaser answers, I will adhere to a pretty short self-imposed time frame. The previous answer re: splitting instead of doubling took into account the value of the 2nd place finish, even though it is severely reduced compared to winning the table. 2nd is better than 3rd! If it were a one-advance, or a final table with a heavily disproportionate payoff for 1st, then doubling (and begging!) would be my play. In those situations, insurance would not be an option because it would do no good at all.
Seat 1 - BR1 has $97,500 His bet $5,000, cards - 5, K Seat 2 - BR3 has $76,000 His bet $38,000, cards - 7, 6 Seat 3 - BR2 has $85,500 My bet $17,500, cards 7, 7 (BUTTON) Dealers up card: A My though's after seeing the dealers Ace was what do I need to do to at least assure myself 2nd place and still stay alive in the tournament. Betting first I knew if I didn't take insurance BR3 could and if dealer hit BJ I was dead, dropped to BR3 and out of the tournament. After quick figure of the situation I knew as I basicly had a free insurance bet as S.Yama pointed out. I could lose my insurance bet and still stay in BR2 with loss/loss or loss/push with BR3. Not having a long time to figure the exact bet I just took the full insurance of $8,750, while BR1 and BR3 waved off for insurance. After checking the hole card, the dealer flip the BJ locking me into 2nd place. So how to play out my hand, DD or split never came into play (although after the insurance bet I would have had to do one or the other if I wanted to win the table). Great breakdown S. Yama, our thinking was the same on the "free insurance", however you came up with a better bet then I did. But while playing I just didn't have the time to cover everything. I also like your play of DD on the 7/7 over the split. I think most members here if given the chance would have split them without a second thought. I was thinking about a DD (almost another free bet except for loss/push with BR3) and having the DD card down in hopes that BR3 wouldn't DD since his straight bet win would assure him no worst then BR2 and with a win/loss over me he would win the table. *NOTE: for new members,when we mention "free bet" we refer to any bet a player can make without penalty their position.
