last hand of semi's one advance to final table. max bet 300 minimum 5 BR3 chips 470 bets 300 gets 10 and 5 BR1 chips 610 bets 60 gets 10 and 8 BR2 (me) 555 bets 300 gets 10 and 10 dealer has an Ace up BR1 and 3 decline insurance. Should I take it?
Take insurance Deltaduke, Firstly, what a gift from BR1 betting just a chip more than the lead over you. Thinking of your question I wondered what in your opinion were the chances of BR3 doubling his 15, and to a lesser degree whether BR1 would double her 18 when the dealer has no bj and you took insurance. But in either case taking insurance is a better play. Taking no insurance: If you think BR3 will not double then you advance when the dealer does not have blackjack or doesn't draw to 21 (69%* 90%). You advance about 62% of the times. If BR3 doubles he wins about 22% of the times and takes it away from you (except when he doubles hitting a 6 and you double hoping for an Ace). Your success rate is about 52%. Taking (full) insurance: Dealer’s bj gives you over 30% chance right away. If the dealer has no bj you need to win and BR1 can not win dd (it is a “free double” for her but many players would not recognize it), and BR3 has to push or lose. Pretty good chances as BR1 has only 3 non-busting cards and BR3 busts almost half the time. Your total chance would be from high 60% to high 70’s%. Hope it helps, S. Yama PS Having more time to think would you consider a different bet?
a much better bet Yes a 250 bet by me would have been much better, and I would not have to even think before taking insurance. The dealer started counting me down when it came my turn and I simply matched BR3's bet. In actuality I took the insurance and everyone stood. The dealer then busted and BR3 was the winner.
I see how betting between 240 and 275 would still have kept all of the same options open as betting 300 and would have additionally allowed for splitting in order to beat a BR3 double, but I don't see how it would make the insurance decision any easier. Can you elaborate?
talked without thinking As usual I talked before I thought. Outside of being able to split if br3 got as good double, which I didn't think she would even try, guess the smaller bet makes no difference. At the time I knew the odds for taking insurance, but did not know the odds of the 15 either making a hand or the dealer busting on her standing. I figured the insurance was the best and would probably do so again in the same situation. It's what makes this a hard game. I frequently get outlucked or outskilled.:laugh:
The winner was------ This Orleans event was won by a nice fellow that I think is a "low profile" member of this site----CONGRATULATIONS JB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Billy C
Orleans This situation is a wonderful example of why luck is the dominating factor of doing well in BJTs. All BR1 has to do is take 5 worth of insurance and then he gets the immediate 30% chance of advancing. When he does, of course, it doesn't do you any good to take insurance. Who knows maybe he was trying to sucker you in to taking the insurance (fat chance!) so that he could DD his hard 18 and perhaps get lucky:laugh: On his play the only chance he had was dealer 21. BR3 takes the bust route for dealer 16% vrs hitting for at least 22%. If you hadn't taken the insurance he would had to double for the 22% chance. Just hitting I am not sure what the % is, but it should be about the same. It is frustrating to take the percentage plays and just get blasted by luck. Larry
Orleans OOPS! I guess once you take the insurance then BR1 will advance with dealer 20 or 21. But he should still DD to give him the option of getting 19 with a dealer 17 or 18. Plus if he get 20 or 21 he will advance. Larry
S. Yama's computations are generally quite reliable so I thought I would try to confirm them by running some simulations. A sim with all players playing basic strategy seems to confirm this. The result was 62.7% for BR2 to advance. A sim with all players playing optimally (BR3 doubles, BR1 hits to 20 or better) resulted in a 58.5% chance for BR2 to advance. Close but not convincing. S. Yama's assertion that BR2 should double when BR3 hits 21 on a double is correct. A sim with all players playing basic strategy yielded a probability of 52.17% for BR2 if the dealer does not have blackjack. The overall probability of advancing is .3 + (.7 x .5217) = 66.5%. If the other players play optimally, then this is chopped down to .3 + (.7 * .4327) = 60.3%. So, it would seem that S.Yama's estimations are reasonable and that taking insurance was the correct play against both skilled and unskilled opponents.
According to my sim results, BR3's percentage is 22.3% for doubling and 21.7% for hitting and 16.4% for standing. It's nice to have a sim to get these numbers, but my hat is off to those of you who obtain the same result consistently using estimation and manual computation. A much better tool to have in the heat of the battle!
Other Factors With infinite deck and dealer hitting soft 17: Not taking insurance: With every one playing basic strategy then BR2's chance to win is 88.71% on the condition does not have a BJ. Factoring in the chance of a dealer BJ this reduces to (9/13) x 88.71% = 61.41% With BR3 doubling and BR1 and BR2 playing basic strategy it becomes 69.06% given no dealer BJ. Factoring in a possible dealer BJ then BR2's chances is(9/13) x 69.06% = 47.81% However BR2 can improve slightly by doubling when BR3 doubles to 21. Now given no dealer BJ it becomes 69.65%. Factoring in a possible dealer BJ the overall chance for BR2 is (9/13) x 69.65% = 48.22% Nor should BR1 just stand with 18. BR1 should attempt to hit to 20 (BR2's total) in case of a BR2 push with the dealer. For BR1 to hit and bust loses nothing over standing. Now BR2's chances are reduced slightly to 66.48% given no dealer BJ. Factoring in a possible dealer BJ the overall chance for BR2 becomes (9/13) x 66.48% = 46.03%. ...................................BlueLight
