I have been thinking about this scenario and I don't know what the best play would be. Usually on the last hand your actions are forced, but on the next to last hand you may have options. 6 decks, S17, BJ 3 for 2, DAS, late surrender. Cards are up and DD cards are down. We will assume that you have plenty of chips to bet max and DD on the last hand, no matter what the outcome of this hand. For the sake of simplicity, we will assume it is basically a 2 person game as to who advances. You are dealt a lovely hard 4-7 (you can look at the stiffs 12-16 if you wish). Dealer has 7-A (no BJ). You look at the chip totals and you can surrender and be within a max bet whether your opponent wins/pushes or if you hit and lose you will be more than a max bet behind if your opponent wins/pushes. I realize it makes a difference who will bet and play first on the last hand so maybe I can get a response for both sceanrios. Thanks to anyone who would like to take a whack at this. Larry
I'm not sure it's possible to give a meaningful answer. You've included a lot of variables in your scenario, and yet there are others to consider too - E.g., Assuming you are BR2, which seems to be implied, have you bet enough to take the lead if you both win? What will be your deficit if you both lose? Could you take the lead by doubling down? (Which might be worth considering on some stiff totals, where the probability of needing to hit more than once is low.) What hand has your opponent been dealt? And hence what are the chances of a swing against you, or in your favour? (You may choose to vary the play of your hand in order to either seek a swing in your favour, or guard against a swing in your opponent's favour.) What if you are BR1, so it could only be a full (win/lose) swing that would put you more than a max bet behind? I agree it would be useful to have a set of general principles to apply on the penultimate hand, much like Wong's book provides for the final hand; it's always an ad hoc decision for me, and I would guess that's true for most people.
I agree I agree with you. When I put the post on there, I figured that were probably too many variables. The whole thing would have to be broken down into dealer has some specific card 7-A, and your opponent has a specific hand 17-21. Lots of possibilities and probably makes the scenario too overall complicated. Like you, I just make an ad hoc decision at the time. Admittedly, this scenario will not come up very often. I just happened to be in a streak where I keep getting 4-7 at crucial times. Larry
