1 Advances out of 3........ Last Hand Br 1 and Br 2 are tied with 670 Br 3 has 330 Br 1 bets first and bets 10 Br 1a whom is tied with Br 1 bets 10 also Br 3 bets 330 Surrender is available max bet is 500 Br 1 has A-6 and stands Br 1a has 16 Br 3 has A-7 Dealer has a 10 up What should Br 2 do with his hard 16 vs dealers 10 up and why ? If you would like to save your answer for the radio show I will ask in on the air.If not you can respond here.Let me know ? Either way is fine
Br 1a should surrender.... if Br 1a(assumed Br 1a = Br 2) surrender, he will be the winner 77%(dealer will get total >= 17 of the time with 10 upcard) of the time whereby Br 1 only got 23%(dealer will bust 23% of the time with 10 upcard, 8 deck, S17) to be the winner. Br 3 already out .
Surrender is the best play here, but the percentage is not quite that high. If the dealer makes 17, br1 wins, not br1a.
Rationale Surrender is best for the following reasons: 1) A win by Br3 results in a total of $660 which is $5 less than the $665 the Br1a winds up with by surrendering. The only way Br3 wins is by getting a Snapper - a 4.65% probability; therefore Br1a has more than a 95% advantage over Br3. It should be noted that Br1a's surrender should be played as a lock over Br3, which essentially reduces the last hand to a 2-person game between Br1 and Br1a. In that case a player is 4% better by taking the low. 2) Br1 made a mistake by standing on the A-6. If Br1a surrenders, Br1 must either win or push the hand to advance; this means the dealer must have an outcome of exactly 17 or bust. Wlith a 10 up (I'm assuming a 6-deck shoe here), the dealer will make 17 12.13% of the time & bust 23.02% of the time, for a total of just over 35%. This should make Br1a about a 65% favorite over Br1. I was going to wait until Thursday's show to state this answer but I'll be too busy to tune in. I hope Joep will undertand & reward me anyway with a free entry into the $2M tournament :joker: .
I got an email from someone that misinterpreted what I meant in my last post, and I see now that it could be easily misinterpreted... When I said two posts back that "the percentage is not quite that high", I meant that br1a's chance of winning is lower than the 77% stated by ssho88. The actual number is 64% or 65% (dealer makes 18 or higher starting with a 10). I did not mean that there was little difference between surrendering and other choices. Indeed, surrendering is clearly the best play, by a large margin.
Good Plays by all BR3 has a long shot at winning with a BJ. BR1 initially takes the low. BR1a makes a good surrender play and takes the low. Questions Why didn't BR1 hit the A,6? until he/she had a hard hand?? OR Why didn't BR1 surrender, thereby eliminating BR3, and hoping for better cards and position against BR1a in the playoff??
He will be the winner 64.78% of the time! Ken, you are correct, if Br 1a surrender, he will be the winner 64.78% of the time!
My choice... would be to stand. Surrender looks good advancing 64.7% of the time. However, I can stand and gain another 23% with the dealer bust forcing a playoff with the co-leader. And I like my chances heads up against a player that stood on soft 17.
The stand or surrender choice for BR1a: Standing gives BR1a an 88% chance of going to a playoff with BR1 if BR3 stands. (If BR3 improves to 19 or better, there could be a three-way playoff if the dealer gets in between.) Surrender gives BR1a just under a 65% chance of winning, end of story. So, even if we ignore BR3's possible appearance in a three-way playoff, you'd need to have a 74% chance of winning the playoff to make standing better than surrendering. (88% X 74% = 65.1%) That's a tall order. Another item that noone has mentioned is that there is roughly a 1/13th chance that you'll be in a playoff with BR1 no matter what you do. The dealer may end up with a blackjack since this example came from Global where the dealer doesn't have a hole card yet. All the percentages mentioned in this thread assume that the dealer doesn't have blackjack. It doesn't change anything, but it's worth noting.
