Secret Bet Teaser

I have stolen an excellent Tourney Teaser from the lasvegasadvisor.com forum that was posted by Joep.

Here it is:

In every other tournament format betting first with only 2 players left and with you being Br 2 it's all but over except for the swing,and thats only 12 %

Let me pose a situation that can and will happen many times in a UBT format where if you are betting first with a secret bet as Br 2 and your opponent has no secret bet you now can turn 12 % into a coin flip .

So you are acting first with 40 K
Br 1 has 46 K

In any other tournament format what ever bet you were to make over 5.5 K Br 1 would just match up with you. They might just match up any bet you make but any seasoned player will for sure match your bet from 5.5 K and up


Now that I have set the stage for you I would be interested to hear what bets you would make to stay away from the 12 %.as much as you possibly could.

Have Fun


Joep

 

Come on!

Don't be scared. Of course fgk42 and monkeysystem aren't allowed to answer. Yet.

Cheers

Reachy

 

I may be missing something ...

but all I can think of is to pick a random number, big enough to swing against a BR1 push, but avoiding some of the more obvious values that BR1 might put me on.

I'd think the figures to avoid are -

6.5K (the min needed for the swing)
20K (the split BR)
25K (assuming that's the max; if not then the all-in 40K would be the equivalent.)

So any bet > 6.5K and not in the above list would be my tentative answer.

 

My 2 cents...

I would bet 17,500. This way if BR 1 bets just under his lead (5.5 K), it covers his double down. It also covers him if he bets max and you both lose. I would say BR1 would most likely either bet 5.5 or 25. Even if he splits bank and bets 23, you can double to beat him with either bet.

Is this what you were thinking?
Rounder21

 

I'll go with 7 K (not 6.5) and here's why:

I'll go on the premise that BR1 will cover the max bet with 19.5 K. If BR2 bets 7 K he can surrender to the low (and BR 1 can't surrender to beat him) and take the split even against BR1 push.

Now assume BR1 goes min bet, .5 K. 7 K is enough to win there as well and ties against a double down.

Sadly, that took me significantly more than the 45 seconds allotted in real play >_<