Question one. For the benefit of less experienced players I will go step by step trying to shed some light (and unavoidably cast many peripheral shadows) on the subject. The problem: Rank the bets: 400, 900, 2,300, and 2,500 for P1 when playing against expert players. Last hand, two players advance, bets 100 to 2,500, surr. allowed. P1- 7,950 P2- 7,450 P3- 6,500 P4- 11,400 If we are playing against expert players we need to anticipate their play and then calculate our chances of advancing. From the bets offered we can make two distinctive groups: small bets 400 and 900 (both bets give P1 â€the lowâ€) and big bets 2,300 and 2,500. We will find out later which of the two small or which of the two big bets is better. If we (as P1) make a small bet (900 bet requires surrendering anything but blackjack), P2 has no choice but to make a high bet. P2 should make bet of 2,400 out of his bankroll of 7,450, to be able to split 2 times –split to three hands doesn’t happen very often but there is no downside to betting 100 less than the maximum. P3 doesn’t have the low, thus he/she must make a big bet. If we make a big bet, P2 has much better chances to advance by betting small and taking away from us all the situations when we a) lose, b) surrender, c) push while he wins his small bet of let’s say 800. P3 has no choice but bet max of 2,500 and double down/split or play to gain against two out of three other players. P4 has to bet 300 if any of the 3 players take a low or bet 900 if all other players make big bets. Before I go any further I would like to emphasize (many players do know about it) that in tournament bj players need to deviate from basic strategy plays. Usually it means playing more aggressive: hitting stiff hands against dealer 2 to 6 up-cards, hitting to more than 17 when we need to “full swing†or make “any gain†to a player, and most often double down / split some hands that normally we wouldn’t. Such plays lower the Expected Value of the hand but they increase chance of advancement. Let’s look at the table that shows more aggressive plays (DDD is “Desperate Double Downâ€- a play to win a doubled bet): Play.......2(+) bets won.....bj.........single win......push ........single loss......double loss.......EV BS...........6.5%..............4.5%........32.0%.........9.0%........43.0%...............5.0%.............-0.5% Aggress...13.0%..............2.0%........25.0%.........8.0%........39.0%.............13.0%............-11.0% DDD........31.0%..............0.0%........<1.0%.........5.0%.......<1.0%..............63/0%............-64.0% Now, let’s build a table with various types of play. Line 1. P1 bets small and P2 and P3 bet big and both play basic strategy. P3 advances about 20% --only if he wins and P3 pushes or loses (14%), and when he wins doubled bet or gets a bj and P2 wins no more than single bet (6%). P2 advances when he wins double bet (6.5%), or when he gets bj and P3 doesn’t win doubled bet (4%), or when he wins single bet and P3 doesn’t get bj or wins doubled bet (27.5%). P1 advances in all cases except when either or both P2 and P3win (58%). Line 2. Let’s see what is the maximum chance of advancing for P3 if P1 bets small and P2 plays basic strategy. P3 must play to win and gain over P2 –in a majority of cases it is double down on anything. Line 3. Let’s have P2 playing more aggressively, if he wins dd he advances, but this comes at cost of less single wins. P3 needs to weight if it is more beneficial to dd or play to swing or play to win if P2 busts. Notice that P2 increases his chances as compared to him plying bs, also P3 performs better than playing bs but not as much better because of more optimized P2 play. Line 4. If P2 plays Desperate Double Down (or split) he wins 31% of times and advances for sure. If P2 also DDD he wins 31% of the times, too, but he advances only 14.5% (this happens only when P2 doesn’t win his DDD). A better play by P3 can bring him to a total of about 18% chances of advancing. Line 5. If P2’s play is optimal (a very difficult play to gain just a few percents) it still would be a very aggressive play. P3 can’t perform better now, than when P2 was doing crazy doubles. P1 making a small bet (and P2 and other players playing expertly) advances about 50% of the times. .............P1..........P2...........P3............P4 Line 1.....42%........38%.......20%........100% Line 2.....51%........20%.......30%..........99% Line 3.....54%........25%.......22%..........99% Line 4.....53%........31%........19%.........97% Line 5.....50%.......34%........18%.........98% Having this table allows us to see what would happen if P1 made a big bet. P2 would take a low and P4 would bet after P1. This is the situation P2 represents in Line 4, except that P1 lead over P4 is more than half of maximum bet. Still, the chances of advancing would be in the mid thirties. The 900 bet is minimally better than the bet of 400 because if P1 receives a blackjack and P2 doesn’t win his hand then P3 must win doubled bet – winning single bet is not enough. Worth just short of 0.5%. This is slightly offset by P1 being forced to take 300 insurance whenever dealer is showing an Ace, then losing to the dealer not having bj and P2 pushing his hand against the dealer and P3 not winning. Cost 1/10th of one percent. The 2,500 bet is a bit better than the bet of 2,300 for three reasons. P1 receiving a blackjack with only 2,300 bet ties P4 pushing his hand. It loses to P3 doubled bet by 100 and it loses to P2 tripled bets. Best bets against expert players are: B—A—D—C Question two. When we are playing against below average players we need to improve our chances of advancing by letting them make mistakes. There is a good chance that by betting 2,500 – the max- they will follow the suite. We may get the low and the high. It helps to create a feeling at the table: May the luckiest player win! (And hoping may the best win!). Best bets against novice players are: D—C—B—A Regards, S. Yama
Thanks S. Yama Well I think I know why I am in my semifinal runt...LOL. At least my thought was right going low for #1, only I bet 2nd best play. I also may have found out why I do better against better players then newbies...LOL. What is the highest percintage play for #3? Thanks S. Yama, these were very good questions. I look forward to more in the future.
Thanks S. Yama This is such a humbling game! I am sure we will each learn something from your tutorial...I am in awe. Hope we can see more of these in the future.
Contest Excellent analysis. It's comforting to know that this agrees with Wong's strategy. Against experts, take the low. Against beginners, bet big. The deciding factor for me choosing 2300 was that I had a chance to swing P4 if he bet big. I'm anxious to hear your findings on the play of the hand.
